NXS-GRX · XT-01 · Exponential technology series
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems
AI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.
Page GRX-SER-XT-01Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-01 (drafted)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
5
Water security risk · Governance weakness · Energy security risk · Cyber risk
Indicators
100
5 index domains
Hazard families
22
Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems
Methods
56
Cyber, AI and frontier technology
5
domain indices
100
indicators in scope
2
hazard domains
5
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where does AI adoption outrun oversight capacity?
- What physical footprint and dependency does AI create?
- Which AI failure modes could cascade into essential services?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- Water security riskDomain index · IDX · WAT0-10 index of water security risk combining scarcity and stress, WASH access, water quality and transboundary dependence; geometric so that good access does not offset severe scarcity.
- Governance weaknessDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
- Energy security riskDomain index · IDX · ENEIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Cyber riskDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Technology concentration riskDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
- Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-01AI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · XT-01 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water security riskNXS-GRX · WAT | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Governance weaknessNXS-GRX · GOV | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Energy security riskNXS-GRX · ENE | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Cyber riskNXS-GRX · CYB | — | — | — | — | — | ||
| Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy, Water, Governance and institutions.
04Indicators
100 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator | FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Fuel imports, share of merchandise importsIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
| Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
| Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
| Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
| Frequency of severe meteorological droughtIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency | HAZ | Drought | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
| Level of water stressIND.WAT.stress.water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
| Baseline water stress score (sub-basin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress | WAT | Water stress | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO | |
| Total renewable freshwater resources per capitaIND.WAT.stress.renewable_water.pc | WAT | Water stress | hazard | m3/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.INTR.PC |
| Groundwater storage declineIND.WAT.stress.groundwater_depletion | WAT | Water stress | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Water-use efficiencyIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency | WAT | Water stress | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 | COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
| Population using safely managed drinking waterIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
| Population using at least basic drinking waterIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
| Population using safely managed sanitationIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
| Population with basic hand-washing facilitiesIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
| Water bodies with good ambient water qualityIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share | WAT | Water quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.3.2 |
| Wastewater flows safely treatedIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share | WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
| Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency | WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share | WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
| High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Reported cholera cases, per 100,000 populationIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k | HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
| Agricultural water withdrawal, share of totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal | FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
| Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament | SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
| Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
| Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
| Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
| Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights | GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
| Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
| Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms | GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
| Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
| CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
| CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
| CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
| Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
| Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation | GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
| Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
| Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration | GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
| Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census | GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
| Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall | GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Population with access to electricityIND.ENE.access.electricity_access | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
| Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
| Electricity consumption per capitaIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc | ENE | Access | context | kW.h/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
| Renewable share of total final energy consumptionIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
| Primary energy intensity of GDPIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] | COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
| Electricity generation-mix concentrationIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Fossil share of electricity generationIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
| Installed renewable generating capacity per capitaIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc | ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} | COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
| Water-dependent electricity generation, shareIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share | ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Net energy import dependenceIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
| Fuel import bill, share of exports of goods and servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Crude oil and products import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Natural gas import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Coal import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Oil stocks in days of net importsIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks | ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d | COUNTRY | |
| Power outages experienced by firms in a typical monthIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
| Value lost to electrical outages, share of firm salesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss | ENE | Reliability | impact | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
| System average interruption duration (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| System average interruption frequency (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| Electric power transmission and distribution lossesIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses | ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
| Heating and cooling degree daysIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days | ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Largest single supplier share of critical-mineral importsIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Individuals using the InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
| International connectivity route redundancyIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy | INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Hours of national-scale internet disruptionIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours | INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a | COUNTRY | |
| Power grid resilienceIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply network resilienceIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours | INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a | CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index scoreIND.CYB.capability.gci_score | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
| ITU Global Cybersecurity Index tierIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier | CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
| ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| ITU GCI technical measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
| ITU GCI capacity development measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development | CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
| ITU GCI cooperation measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
| National computer incident response team in operationIND.CYB.capability.national_cert | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
| Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law | CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
| Significant cyber incidents per million populationIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate | CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a | COUNTRY | |
| Cyber incidents disrupting critical servicesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents | CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| ICT services value added, share of GDPIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
| E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development | CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
| Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies | CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Frontier and exponential technology | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Frontier and exponential technology | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Frontier and exponential technology | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Frontier and exponential technology | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Frontier and exponential technology | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Frontier and exponential technology | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnology and synthetic biology | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Frontier and exponential technology | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Frontier and exponential technology | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Climate intervention technologies | Frontier and exponential technology | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Frontier and exponential technology | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Frontier and exponential technology | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Frontier and exponential technology | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Frontier and exponential technology | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Frontier and exponential technology | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Malicious compromise | Information and cyber-physical systems | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | Information and cyber-physical systems | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | Information and cyber-physical systems | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | Information and cyber-physical systems | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | Information and cyber-physical systems | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
06Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
Cyber, AI and frontier technology
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context; Run scenario and tail analytics; Study parametric index design questions
Universities and research
Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review
08Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
XT-01- Edition status
- drafted, in stewardship review
- Subject
- Named by Nexus Reports
09Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems series (GRX-SER-XT-01), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-01/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000088.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-01:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.WAT.stress.water_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.