The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · Exponential technology series
Intelligence artificielle et systèmes agentiques
L’IA et les systèmes agentiques comme infrastructure physique (calcul, énergie, eau, matériaux et chaînes d’approvisionnement) et comme source d’aléas : défaillance, usage malveillant, concentration et lacunes de supervision.
Page GRX-SER-XT-01Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports XT-01 (drafted)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine
5
Water security risk · Governance weakness · Energy security risk · Cyber risk.
Indicateurs
100
5 index domains
Hazard families
22
Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.
Méthodes
56
Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe
5
indices de domaine
100
indicators in scope
2
domaines d'aléas
5
client groups
01Périmètre
Scope and questions
The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.
- Where does AI adoption outrun oversight capacity?
- What physical footprint and dependency does AI create?
- Which AI failure modes could cascade into essential services?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index is built
Graph9 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings
100%
Liste
-
Risque de sécurité hydriqueDomain index · IDX · WAT0–10 index of water security risk combining scarcity and stress, WASH access, water quality and transboundary dependence; geometric so that good access does not offset severe scarcity.
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Faiblesse de la gouvernanceDomain index · IDX · GOVWeighted aggregation, on 0 to 10, of governance quality, rule of law, policy and institutional quality and statistical capacity, each oriented by its own polarity so that higher values mean weaker governance.
-
Risque de sécurité énergétiqueDomain index · IDX · ENEIndex of energy access deficit, fuel import dependence, mix rigidity, supply unreliability and critical-mineral dependence on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
-
Risque cyberDomain index · IDX · CYBIndex of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Risque de concentration technologiqueDomain index · IDX · TECIndex of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
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Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems indexSeries index · SERIES · XT-01L’IA et les systèmes agentiques comme infrastructure physique (calcul, énergie, eau, matériaux et chaînes d’approvisionnement) et comme source d’aléas : défaillance, usage malveillant, concentration et lacunes de supervision.
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Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
-
Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
The Global Risks Index · XT-01 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
| Indice | Valeur | Variation | Variation % | Intervalle à 90 % | Classe · probabilité | Tendance | Plage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Risque de sécurité hydriqueNXS-GRX · WAT |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Faiblesse de la gouvernanceNXS-GRX · GOV |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Risque de sécurité énergétiqueNXS-GRX · ENE |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Risque cyberNXS-GRX · CYB |
– | – | – | – | – | ||
Risque de concentration technologiqueNXS-GRX · TEC |
– | – | – | – | – |
Domains read: Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital, Energy, Water, Governance and institutions.
04Indicateurs
100 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicateur | Domaine | Sub-domain | Composant | Unité | Niveaux | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score de l'indicateur composite LIC-DSF (publié, référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator |
FIS | Debt-carrying capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Importations de carburants, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance |
ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Émissions totales de gaz à effet de serre hors UTCATFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Intensité carbone du PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp |
CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Subventions explicites aux combustibles fossiles, part du PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp |
CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Préparation économique à l'investissement dans l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Préparation de la gouvernance à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness |
CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Fréquence des sécheresses météorologiques sévèresIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency |
HAZ | Sécheresse | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
Niveau de stress hydriqueIND.WAT.stress.water_stress |
WAT | Stress hydrique | hazard | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.4.2 WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWST.ZS |
Score de stress hydrique de référence (sous-bassin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress |
WAT | Stress hydrique | hazard | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO | |
Ressources totales en eau douce renouvelables par habitantIND.WAT.stress.renewable_water.pc |
WAT | Stress hydrique | hazard | m3/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.INTR.PC |
Baisse du stockage des eaux souterrainesIND.WAT.stress.groundwater_depletion |
WAT | Stress hydrique | hazard | mm/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Efficacité de l'utilisation de l'eauIND.WAT.stress.water_use_efficiency |
WAT | Stress hydrique | adaptive capacity | [USD]/m3 |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.4.1 WB_WDI ER.GDP.FWTL.M3.KD |
Population utilisant des services d'eau potable gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
Population utilisant au moins des services d'eau potable de baseIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
Population utilisant des services d'assainissement gérés en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
Population disposant d'installations de base pour le lavage des mainsIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share |
WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
Masses d'eau de bonne qualité ambianteIND.WAT.quality.good_ambient_water_quality.share |
WAT | Water quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 6.3.2 |
Eaux usées traitées en toute sécuritéIND.WAT.quality.wastewater_safely_treated.share |
WAT | Water quality | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, CITY | SDG 6.3.1 EPI WWT |
Taux de dépendance aux ressources en eau renouvelables extérieuresIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | |
Superficie des bassins transfrontaliers faisant l'objet d'une coopération opérationnelleIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share |
WAT | Transboundary dependence | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 6.5.2 |
Réseau haute tension en zones d'aléa géoélectrique élevé, partIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share |
SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Cas de choléra signalés, pour 100,000 habitantsIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k |
HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 |
COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
Prélèvements d'eau agricoles, part du totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_water_withdrawal |
FOO | Agricultural production and dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI ER.H2O.FWAG.ZS |
Sièges occupés par des femmes au parlement nationalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament |
SOC | Gender | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1 |
Voix et responsabilité (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST |
Stabilité politique et absence de violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
Efficacité des pouvoirs publics (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST |
Maîtrise de la corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST |
Indice de perception de la corruption (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Score de liberté de la presse (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom |
GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
État de droit (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST |
Droits de propriété et gouvernance fondée sur des règles (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights |
GOV | Rule of law | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ |
Détenus non condamnés, part de la population carcéraleIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.3.2 |
Incidence de la corruption parmi les entreprisesIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms |
GOV | Rule of law | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2 |
Qualité de la réglementation (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST |
Note globale CPIA (indice d'allocation des ressources de l'IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ |
CPIA gestion du secteur public et institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ |
CPIA transparence, responsabilité et corruption dans le secteur publicIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ |
Efficacité de la mobilisation des recettes (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ |
Écart entre l'exécution budgétaire et le budget approuvéIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation |
GOV | Policy and institutional quality | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 16.6.1 |
Score global des indicateurs de performance statistiqueIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL |
Exhaustivité de l'enregistrement des naissancesIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration |
GOV | Statistical capacity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1 |
Années écoulées depuis le dernier recensement de la populationIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census |
GOV | Statistical capacity | vulnerability | a |
COUNTRY | SDG 17.19.2 |
Score de l'environnement des affaires (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall |
GOV | Business environment | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Population ayant accès à l'électricitéIND.ENE.access.electricity_access |
ENE | Accès | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.1 WB_WDI EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS |
Population utilisant principalement des combustibles et technologies de cuisson propresIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking |
ENE | Accès | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
Consommation d'électricité par habitantIND.ENE.access.electricity_consumption.pc |
ENE | Accès | context | kW.h/a/{person} |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC |
Part des renouvelables dans la consommation finale totale d'énergieIND.ENE.mix.renewable_share_tfec |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.2.1 WB_WDI EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS |
Intensité énergétique primaire du PIBIND.ENE.mix.energy_intensity |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | MJ/[USD] |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.3.1 WB_WDI EG.EGY.PRIM.PP.KD |
Concentration du mix de production d'électricitéIND.ENE.mix.generation_concentration |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Part fossile de la production d'électricitéIND.ENE.mix.fossil_electricity_share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS |
Capacité de production renouvelable installée par habitantIND.ENE.mix.renewable_capacity.pc |
ENE | Energy mix | adaptive capacity | W/{person} |
COUNTRY | SDG 7.b.1 |
Production d'électricité dépendante de l'eau, partIND.ENE.mix.water_dependent_generation.share |
ENE | Energy mix | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
Dépendance nette aux importations d'énergieIND.ENE.security.net_energy_imports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.IMP.CONS.ZS |
Facture des importations de carburants, part des exportations de biens et servicesIND.ENE.security.fuel_import_bill.exports |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Concentration des fournisseurs de pétrole brut et de produits pétroliers importésIND.ENE.security.oil_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs de gaz naturel importéIND.ENE.security.gas_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs de charbon importéIND.ENE.security.coal_import_concentration |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Stocks pétroliers en jours d'importations nettesIND.ENE.security.strategic_oil_stocks |
ENE | Supply security and import dependence | coping capacity | d |
COUNTRY | |
Coupures de courant subies par les entreprises au cours d'un mois typeIND.ENE.reliability.firm_power_outages |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /mo |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.ELC.OUTG |
Valeur perdue du fait des coupures de courant, part du chiffre d'affaires des entreprisesIND.ENE.reliability.outage_sales_loss |
ENE | Reliability | impact | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI IC.FRM.OUTG.ZS |
Durée moyenne des interruptions du réseau (SAIDI)IND.ENE.reliability.saidi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | h/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Fréquence moyenne des interruptions du réseau (SAIFI)IND.ENE.reliability.saifi |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | /a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Pertes de transport et de distribution d'électricitéIND.ENE.reliability.td_losses |
ENE | Reliability | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS |
Degrés-jours de chauffage et de climatisationIND.ENE.reliability.thermal_demand_degree_days |
ENE | Reliability | hazard | K.d/a |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Part du premier fournisseur dans les importations de minerais critiquesIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share |
ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Personnes utilisant InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS |
Redondance des routes de connectivité internationaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy |
INF | Digital connectivity | coping capacity | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Heures de perturbation d'Internet à l'échelle nationaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours |
INF | Digital connectivity | impact | h/a |
COUNTRY | |
Résilience du réseau électriqueIND.INF.utilities.power_grid_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Résilience du réseau d'approvisionnement en eauIND.INF.utilities.water_network_resilience |
INF | Utilities | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
Actifs d'approvisionnement en eau en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
Actifs de production et de réseau électriques en zones d'aléa élevé, partIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share |
INF | Utilities | exposure | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
City electricity interruption hours per customerIND.INF.urban.power_interruption_hours |
INF | Urban systems | vulnerability | h/a |
CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
Score de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Overall score |
Niveau de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier |
CYB | Cyber capability | vulnerability | {class} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Tier |
Pilier mesures juridiques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Pilier mesures techniques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Pilier mesures organisationnelles du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Organizational Measures |
Pilier mesures de renforcement des capacités du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development |
CYB | Cyber capability | adaptive capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures |
Pilier mesures de coopération du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures |
Équipe nationale de réponse aux incidents informatiques en activitéIND.CYB.capability.national_cert |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Technical Measures |
Législation sur la protection des données et de la vie privée en vigueurIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law |
CYB | Cyber capability | coping capacity | {bool} |
COUNTRY | ITU_GCI Legal Measures |
Cyberincidents importants par million d'habitantsIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate |
CYB | Incidents | hazard | /10*6/a |
COUNTRY | |
Cyberincidents perturbant des services critiquesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents |
CYB | Incidents | impact | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Valeur ajoutée des services TIC, part du PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS |
Développement de l'administration en ligneIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development |
CYB | Digital dependence | exposure | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 |
COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports |
TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % |
COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration |
TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 |
COUNTRY | |
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control |
TEC | Intelligence artificielle | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration |
TEC | Intelligence artificielle | vulnerability | % |
COUNTRY | |
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight |
TEC | Biotechnologie | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | |
Stratégie nationale de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignée sur le Cadre de Sendai pour la réduction des risques de catastropheIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | {score} |
COUNTRY | SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2 |
Administrations locales dotées de stratégies de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignées sur la stratégie nationaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies |
CRS | DRR strategy | coping capacity | % |
COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3 |
05Aléas
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Famille | Domaine | Aléas | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI system failure and misalignment | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Technologies d’intervention climatique | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Technologies de pointe et exponentielles | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Malicious compromise | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … | 9 |
| Information-integrity attacks | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure | 6 |
| Cyber-physical disruption | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … | 11 |
| Signal and platform disruption | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure | 7 |
| Identity, trust and cryptographic failure | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure | 6 |
| Systemic cyber events | Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques | Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … | 9 |
06Méthodes
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
56 methods
Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
07Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.
Companies and supply chains
Screen sites and suppliers. Watch chokepoints and pulse. Read country context.
Regulators, supervisors and central banks
Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context. Run scenario and tail analytics. Study parametric index design questions.
Universities and research
Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.
08Rapports
Rapports Nexus
- Edition code
XT-01- Edition status
- drafted, in stewardship review
- Objet
- Named by Nexus Reports
09Citer
Citer et réutiliser
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems series (GRX-SER-XT-01), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-01/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000088.
- Series key
grix:SER.XT-01:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.WAT.stress.water_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.GOV.quality.governance_weakness:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:Anis:IDX.ENE.security.energy_security_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Statut
La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.
Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas
NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.
Institutions et sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.