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Le Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-TEC · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Indice de risque de concentration technologique

Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-TECEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertitude

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

Structure

4 components

10 leaf indicators

Couverture

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 100%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
21
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Shows exposure to frontier-technology chokepoints against the capacity to absorb them; heavily target-defined, so its grade is capped and its sub-indices are always shown.

computation
How Technology concentration risk is computed
Graph16 nodes
Graphe
01Indicateurs
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilier
05Composite
100%
Liste
  1. Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importés
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index of import origin, on a 0–1 scale, for semiconductor devices and electronic integrated circuits (HS 8541 and 8542), by value.
  2. Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloud
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Herfindahl-Hirschman index, on a 0–1 scale, of public-cloud infrastructure (IaaS and PaaS) spend or hosted capacity serving the economy, across providers.
  3. Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur unique
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the accelerator compute (AI-capable GPU/TPU capacity) used by residents that is hosted abroad or controlled by a single provider, by installed capacity.
  4. Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondation
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of AI-model use in the economy’s public and critical sectors served by the three largest foundation-model providers.
  5. Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importés
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Import-value-weighted mean of the Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of import origin for a declared basket of energy-transition minerals and their first-stage processed forms (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare-earth elements, copper, manganese), on a 0–1 scale.
  6. Part du premier fournisseur dans les importations de minerais critiques
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the import value of the declared critical-mineral basket (processed forms) sourced from the single largest origin country.
  7. Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Gross domestic expenditure on research and experimental development by business, government, higher education and private non-profit sectors, as a percentage of GDP (Frascati Manual basis).
  8. Chercheurs par million d'habitants
    Indicator · IND · /10*6
    Full-time-equivalent researchers engaged in research and experimental development per million inhabitants.
  9. Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturés
    Indicator · IND · %
    Exports of products with high R&D intensity (aerospace, computers, pharmaceuticals, scientific instruments, electrical machinery) as a percentage of manufactured exports.
  10. Technology dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 44.4%
    Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.
  11. Critical-mineral dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.
  12. Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinement
    Indicator · IND · w 0.5
    Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.
  13. Innovation capacity sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 22.2%
    Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.
  14. Indice de risque de concentration technologique
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  15. Fragilité macrofinancière et structurelle
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  16. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate technology concentration risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Méthode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
INFORM 0–10 rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
100% of weight
Weighting
expert
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incertitude
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; No mature international indicator standard: target-only
Très faible0,0 à < 2,0
Faible2,0 à < 3,5
Moyen3,5 à < 5,0
Élevé5,0 à < 6,5
Très élevé6.5 à 10.0
04Composantes

4 components, 10 indicators

Technology dependence sub-index w 2

Composite of semiconductor import concentration, cloud provider concentration, foreign control of AI compute and foundation-model concentration.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, baci-cepii37.5%
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration1Class Enational-competition-authority-market-studies, commercial-market-research-licensed25.0%
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control%Class Eoecd-ai-compute-measurement, national-ai-strategies, top50025.0%
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration%Class Epublic-procurement-records, national-ai-registers, commercial-market-research-licensed12.5%

Critical-mineral dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of critical-mineral import concentration and the largest single supplier share.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration1Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries50.0%
Part du premier fournisseur dans les importations de minerais critiquesIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_top_supplier_share%Class Dun-comtrade, iea-critical-minerals-data-explorer50.0%

Innovation capacity sub-index w 1

Composite of R&D intensity, researcher density and high-technology export share.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp%Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million/10*6Class Aunesco-uis, oecd-msti, wb-wdi40.0%
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports%Class Aun-comtrade, wb-wdi20.0%

Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratories w 0.5

Score (0–1) for whether every BSL-3 and BSL-4 laboratory in the economy is licensed, inspected and covered by dual-use research oversight, with a public register of facilities.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight{score}Class Eglobal-biolabs-report, who-jee-reports, national-biosafety-regulators100.0%
05Domaine

Technology and frontier

Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).

Sub-domainIndicateurs
Technology capability3
Concentration and dependence2
Intelligence artificielle2
Biotechnologie1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): No mature international indicator standard: target-only.

06Indicateurs

All 8 technology and frontier indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicateurDomaineSub-domainComposantUnitéNiveauxCrosswalks
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECIntelligence artificiellevulnerability%COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECIntelligence artificiellevulnerability%COUNTRY
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotechnologiecoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
07Cotation

Technology concentration risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · TEC · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Technology concentration risk index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Édition précédente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composite couplé
–
Score de couplage S
–
Pulse, dernière semaine
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Méthode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Tirages
1,000
Technology concentration risk index, world, by edition

Aucune valeur publiée pour l'instant. La première édition trace ici l'historique avec sa bande d'intervalle et les bornes de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrique54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amériques35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asie48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europe44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Océanie14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Aucune évolution pour l'instant. Les changements depuis l'édition précédente seront listés ici à partir de la deuxième édition, avec les indicateurs qui les ont déterminés.
08Valeurs

Country values

FIG 5 · Technology concentration risk index: countries (values when released)
Chargement de la carte
AndorreAntigua-et-BarbudaBahreïnBarbadeComoresCabo VerdeDominiqueMicronésie (États fédérés de)GrenadeKiribatiSaint-Kitts-et-NevisSainte-LucieLiechtensteinMonacoMaldivesÎles MarshallMalteMauriceNauruPalaosSingapourSaint-MarinSao Tomé-et-PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSaint-SiègeSaint-Vincent-et-les GrenadinesSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tuiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/tec/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Clé d'observation
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX. GS-15Global Science and engineeringThe scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. SR-10Digital public infrastructureIdentity, payments and data-exchange infrastructure as public goods, and their concentration, cyber and continuity risk. SR-13Strategic technologyConcentration and control of strategic technologies, export controls and technological dependency. XT-01Artificial Intelligence and Agentic SystemsAI and agentic systems as physical infrastructure (compute, energy, water, materials and supply chains) and as a hazard source: failure, misuse, concentration and oversight gaps. XT-03Telecommunications, open radio networks and edgeTelecom resilience, open and AI-native radio access networks, private wireless, edge compute and spectrum constraints. XT-04Sovereign compute, HPC and cloudCompute dependency and concentration, cloud and data-residency risk, accelerator supply and secure compute. XT-05Quantum-relevant securityCryptographic resilience and the migration to post-quantum cryptography across public and financial systems. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-08Drones, robotics and autonomous systemsAutonomous and robotic systems in logistics, agriculture, industry and security: failure, misuse and safety oversight. XT-09Sensors, IoT and industrial IoTConnected sensing and control across cities, utilities and industry: attack surface, data integrity and dependency. XT-10Digital twins and simulationDigital twins and simulation used for risk decisions: model risk, validation and dependency. XT-14Software and supply-chain integrityOpen-source and commercial software dependencies, build integrity and provenance across critical systems. XT-15Biotechnology and biosecurityBiotechnology capability and governance at public-safe level: laboratory biosafety, oversight and detection capacity; no capability information is published. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks. XT-17Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructureDistributed ledgers and decentralised physical infrastructure networks: operational, financial-stability and governance risk. XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only. XT-19Neurotechnology and human augmentationNeurotechnology and augmentation: safety, privacy, equity and governance risks. XT-20Converging technologiesRisks that emerge where frontier technologies combine (AI with biotechnology, autonomy with cyber, compute with energy) and outrun single-technology governance.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
SDG3
WB_WDI3
11Dans le Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Technology concentration risk index (GRX-IDX-TEC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/technology-concentration-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000130.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.