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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · XT-17 · Exponential technology series

Registres distribués et infrastructures décentralisées

Registres distribués et réseaux d’infrastructures physiques décentralisées : risques opérationnels, de stabilité financière et de gouvernance.

Page GRX-SER-XT-17Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) proposedNexus Reports XT-17 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine

3

Financial stability risk · Cyber risk · Technology concentration risk.

Indicateurs

66

3 index domains

Hazard families

22

Frontier and exponential technology · Information and cyber-physical systems.

Méthodes

113

Financial risk · Cyber, AI and frontier technology.

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
3
indices de domaine
66
indicators in scope
2
domaines d'aléas
3
client groups

01Périmètre

Scope and questions

The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.

  1. Where do ledgers touch essential services?
  2. What financial-stability channels exist?
  3. How is failure governed?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index is built

Graph7 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Liste
  1. Risque de stabilité financière

    Domain index · IDX · FIN
    Expert-weighted Mazziotta–Pareto aggregation of the six financial sub-indices and the MAC macroeconomic instability sub-index, each on 0–10, with a penalty for unbalanced profiles.
  2. Risque cyber

    Domain index · IDX · CYB
    Index of cyber incident pressure, digital dependence and the lack of cyber capability on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  3. Risque de concentration technologique

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  4. Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index

    Series index · SERIES · XT-17
    Registres distribués et réseaux d’infrastructures physiques décentralisées : risques opérationnels, de stabilité financière et de gouvernance.
  5. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  6. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  7. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · XT-17 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Indice Valeur Variation Variation % Intervalle à 90 % Classe · probabilité Tendance Plage
Risque de stabilité financièreNXS-GRX · FIN – – – – –
Risque cyberNXS-GRX · CYB – – – – –
Risque de concentration technologiqueNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Financial system, Technology and frontier, Cyber and digital.

04Indicateurs

66 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
FIN · 32CYB · 13TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicateur Domaine Sub-domain Composant Unité Niveaux Crosswalks
Fonds propres réglementaires rapportés aux actifs pondérés en fonction des risquesIND.FIN.capital.regulatory_capital_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRC_PT
Fonds propres de catégorie 1 rapportés aux actifs pondérés en fonction des risquesIND.FIN.capital.tier1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKRTC_PT
Fonds propres de base de catégorie 1 rapportés aux actifs pondérés en fonction des risquesIND.FIN.capital.cet1_rwa FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCET_PT
Fonds propres rapportés au total des actifs (levier)IND.FIN.capital.capital_to_assets FIN Capital adequacy coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKA_PT WB_WDI FB.BNK.CAPA.ZS
Prêts non performants nets de provisions rapportés aux fonds propresIND.FIN.capital.npl_net_capital FIN Capital adequacy vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSKNL_PT
Prêts non performants rapportés au total des prêts brutsIND.FIN.asset_quality.npl_ratio FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSANL_PT WB_WDI FB.AST.NPER.ZS
Provisions rapportées aux prêts non performantsIND.FIN.asset_quality.provisions_to_npl FIN Asset quality coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSPN_PT
Concentration des prêts par activité économiqueIND.FIN.asset_quality.loan_concentration FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCLE_PT
Créances bancaires sur les administrations publiques, part des actifs bancairesIND.FIN.asset_quality.sovereign_exposure FIN Asset quality vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSASDG_PT
Rendement des actifsIND.FIN.earnings.roa FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERA_PT
Rendement des fonds propresIND.FIN.earnings.roe FIN Earnings coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSERE_PT
Actifs liquides rapportés au total des actifsIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_total FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLT_PT WB_WDI FD.RES.LIQU.AS.ZS
Actifs liquides rapportés aux passifs à court termeIND.FIN.liquidity.liquid_assets_st_liabilities FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLS_PT
Ratio de liquidité à court termeIND.FIN.liquidity.lcr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSLCR_PT
Ratio de financement stable netIND.FIN.liquidity.nsfr FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSNSF_PT
Dépôts de la clientèle rapportés au total des prêts hors interbancaireIND.FIN.liquidity.deposits_to_loans FIN Liquidity and funding coping capacity % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCD_PT
Position ouverte nette en devises rapportée aux fonds propres (valeur absolue)IND.FIN.fx.net_open_position_capital FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSSNO_PT
Prêts en devises, part du total des prêts (dollarisation du crédit)IND.FIN.fx.fx_loans_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFC_PT
Dépôts en devises, part du total des dépôts (dollarisation des dépôts)IND.FIN.fx.fx_deposits_share FIN Foreign-exchange risk vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFCD_PT
Crédit intérieur au secteur privé, part du PIBIND.FIN.depth.private_credit.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion context % COUNTRY WB_WDI FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS WB_WDI GFDD.DI.14
Écart du ratio crédit/PIB (BRI)IND.FIN.depth.credit_gap FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY
Croissance réelle du crédit au secteur privéIND.FIN.depth.private_credit_growth FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSCGPS_PT
Dette des ménages, part du PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Dette des entreprises non financières, part du PIBIND.FIN.depth.nfc_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSTDGDP_PT
Détention d'un compte, adultesIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Croissance réelle des prix de l'immobilier résidentielIND.FIN.housing.real_house_price_growth FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSREPRR_PC_CP_A_PT
Ratio prix des logements/revenu, écart à la moyenne de long termeIND.FIN.housing.price_to_income_gap FIN Real estate vulnerability % COUNTRY, CITY
Actifs des autres sociétés financières, part du PIBIND.FIN.nbfi.ofc_assets.gdp FIN Non-bank financial intermediation context % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSFAG_PT
Taux de pénétration de l'assurance (primes rapportées au PIB)IND.FIN.nbfi.insurance_penetration FIN Non-bank financial intermediation coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI GFDD.DI.09 WB_WDI GFDD.DI.10
Déficit de protection contre les catastrophes naturellesIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap FIN Non-bank financial intermediation vulnerability % REGION, COUNTRY
Exposition bancaire aux secteurs à forte intensité de carboneIND.FIN.climate_finance.carbon_intensive_exposure FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Prêts bancaires exposés à un risque physique climatique élevéIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending FIN Climate-related financial exposure exposure % COUNTRY
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Acute climate extremes exposure % SITE, PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(c)
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions CLI Emissions exposure Mt/a PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share CLI Transition exposure exposure % PORTFOLIO IFRS_S2 29(b)
PIB des secteurs fortement dépendants de la nature, partIND.ENV.nature_dependence.nature_dependent_gdp.share ENV Nature dependence exposure % COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO
Score de stress hydrique de référence (sous-bassin)IND.WAT.stress.baseline_water_stress WAT Stress hydrique hazard {score} COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE, PORTFOLIO
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Personnes utilisant InternetIND.INF.digital.internet_users INF Digital connectivity coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY SDG 17.8.1 WB_WDI IT.NET.USER.ZS
Redondance des routes de connectivité internationaleIND.INF.digital.international_connectivity_redundancy INF Digital connectivity coping capacity 1 COUNTRY
Heures de perturbation d'Internet à l'échelle nationaleIND.INF.digital.internet_disruption_hours INF Digital connectivity impact h/a COUNTRY
Score de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_score CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Overall score
Niveau de l'indice mondial de cybersécurité de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_tier CYB Cyber capability vulnerability {class} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Tier
Pilier mesures juridiques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilier mesures techniques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_technical CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Pilier mesures organisationnelles du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Pilier mesures de renforcement des capacités du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_capacity_development CYB Cyber capability adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Capacity Development Measures
Pilier mesures de coopération du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_cooperation CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Cooperation Measures
Équipe nationale de réponse aux incidents informatiques en activitéIND.CYB.capability.national_cert CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Technical Measures
Législation sur la protection des données et de la vie privée en vigueurIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Cyberincidents importants par million d'habitantsIND.CYB.incidents.significant_incident_rate CYB Incidents hazard /10*6/a COUNTRY
Cyberincidents perturbant des services critiquesIND.CYB.incidents.critical_sector_incidents CYB Incidents impact 1 COUNTRY
Valeur ajoutée des services TIC, part du PIBIND.CYB.dependence.ict_services_share.gdp CYB Digital dependence exposure % COUNTRY WB_WDI BX.GSR.CCIS.ZS
Développement de l'administration en ligneIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Plafond de transfert souverain du risque de catastrophe, part du PIBIND.CRS.financing.risk_transfer_cover.gdp CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
Déficit de protection d'assurance contre les catastrophes naturellesIND.CRS.financing.insurance_protection_gap CRS Risk financing and protection gap vulnerability % COUNTRY
Primes d'assurance non-vie, part du PIBIND.CRS.financing.non_life_insurance_penetration CRS Risk financing and protection gap coping capacity % COUNTRY
05Aléas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
InformationFrontière157HAZARDS
2 hazard domains (inner ring) and 22 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famille Domaine Aléas Count
AI system failure and misalignment Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologies d’intervention climatique Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Technologies de pointe et exponentielles 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
Malicious compromise Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Malware outbreak, Ransomware attack, Data breach, Persistent intrusion, Denial-of-service attack, Software or hardware supply-chain compromise, Social-engineering campaign, Online harassment campaign … 9
Information-integrity attacks Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Disinformation campaign, Data and model integrity attack, Election infrastructure attack, Public record tampering, Misinformation surge and infodemic, Hazardous information disclosure 6
Cyber-physical disruption Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Industrial control system compromise, Power-grid cyberattack, Transport control-system attack, Health-system cyberattack, Medical device compromise, Water utility cyberattack, Building systems compromise, Mass connected-device manipulation … 11
Signal and platform disruption Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Satellite-navigation disruption, Major cloud or platform outage, Internet routing or naming failure, Subsea cable damage, Payment system outage, Radio-spectrum interference, Digital public infrastructure failure 7
Identity, trust and cryptographic failure Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Identity provider compromise, Signing key or certificate compromise, Certificate or credential expiry outage, Cryptographic algorithm or implementation break, Mass account takeover, National digital identity system failure 6
Systemic cyber events Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiques Defective update mass outage, Mass vulnerability exploitation, Connected-device botnet, Managed service provider compromise, Firmware or hardware backdoor, Insider threat, Cyber theft from financial infrastructure, Irrecoverable data loss … 9
06Méthodes

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

57 methods

Risque financier

Probability of Default · Loss Given Default · Exposure at Default · Expected Credit Loss · Unexpected Credit Loss · Credit Migration · Structural Credit Merton …

56 methods

Cyber, IA et technologies de pointe

Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …

07Users

Who uses it

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios. Read systemic coupling. Replicate methods.

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context. Run climate pathway packs. Build portfolio postures.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

08Rapports

Rapports Nexus

Edition code
XT-17
Edition status
prévue
Objet
Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning

Rapports Nexus

09Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Distributed ledgers and decentralised infrastructure series (GRX-SER-XT-17), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/xt-17/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000104.
Series key
grix:SER.XT-17:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.FIN.capital.financial_stability_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.CYB.capability.cyber_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.