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Le Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility

Indice de risque de dépendance extérieure

Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertitude

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Structure

5 components

22 leaf indicators

Couverture

80% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.

computation
How External dependence risk is computed
Graph30 nodes
Graphe
01Indicateurs
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilier
05Composite
100%
Liste
  1. Ouverture commerciale (exportations plus importations, part du PIB)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
  2. Recettes du tourisme international, part des exportations
    Indicator · IND · %
    Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
  3. Envois de fonds personnels reçus, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
  4. Aide publique au développement nette reçue, part du RNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
  5. Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
  6. Concentration des produits exportés (IHH normalisé)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
  7. Concentration des marchés d'exportation (IHH normalisé)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  8. Dépendance aux exportations de produits de base
    Indicator · IND · %
    Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
  9. Rentes des ressources naturelles, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
  10. Volatilité des termes de l'échange (10 ans)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
  11. Indice de complexité économique
    Indicator · IND · score
    Score of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
  12. Importations alimentaires, part des importations de marchandises
    Indicator · IND · %
    Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  13. Importations de carburants, part des importations de marchandises
    Indicator · IND · %
    Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
  14. Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiques
    Indicator · IND · %
    Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
  15. Concentration des origines des importations (IHH normalisé)
    Indicator · IND · 1
    Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
  16. Part de la valeur ajoutée étrangère dans les exportations brutes
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
  17. Concentration des fournisseurs de biens intermédiaires importés
    Indicator · IND · %
    Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
  18. Commerce maritime exposé aux points d'étranglement maritimes
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
  19. Solde du compte courant, part du PIB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
  20. Réserves en mois d'importations
    Indicator · IND · mo
    Gross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
  21. Dette extérieure à court terme, part des réserves
    Indicator · IND · %
    External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
  22. Encours de la dette extérieure, part du RNB
    Indicator · IND · %
    Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
  23. External flow dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
  24. Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
  25. Essential import dependence sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%
    Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
  26. Supply-chain exposure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%
    Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
  27. External vulnerability sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%
    Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
  28. Indice de risque de dépendance extérieure
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
  29. Fragilité macrofinancière et structurelle
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  30. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. 22 indicators, 5 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
25
1
–
s’exécute dans votre navigateur
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Méthode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
NONE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
80% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
expert
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
Incertitude
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Très faible0,0 à < 2,0
Faible2,0 à < 3,5
Moyen3,5 à < 5,0
Élevé5,0 à < 6,5
Très élevé6.5 à 10.0
04Composantes

5 components, 22 indicators

External flow dependence sub-index w 1

Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Ouverture commerciale (exportations plus importations, part du PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop22.2%
Recettes du tourisme international, part des exportationsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports%Class Bwb-wdi, un-tourism22.2%
Envois de fonds personnels reçus, part du PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop22.2%
Aide publique au développement nette reçue, part du RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni%Class Awb-wdi, oecd-dac22.2%
Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers, part du PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi11.1%

Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Concentration des produits exportés (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi1Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade18.2%
Concentration des marchés d'exportation (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat13.6%
Dépendance aux exportations de produits de baseIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share%Class Bunctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi18.2%
Rentes des ressources naturelles, part du PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp%Class Cwb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations13.6%
Volatilité des termes de l'échange (10 ans)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility%Class Bderived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo18.2%
Indice de complexité économiqueIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity{score}Class Charvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check18.2%

Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5

Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Importations alimentaires, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Importations de carburants, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share%Class Bwb-wdi, un-comtrade28.6%
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals14.3%
Concentration des origines des importations (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi1Class Bun-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat28.6%

Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75

Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Part de la valeur ajoutée étrangère dans les exportations brutesIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation%Class Coecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora33.3%
Concentration des fournisseurs de biens intermédiaires importésIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci33.3%
Commerce maritime exposé aux points d'étranglement maritimesIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure%Class Dderived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed33.3%

External vulnerability sub-index w 1

Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.

IndicateurUnitéÉléments probantsSourcesPart
Solde du compte courant, part du PIBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp%Class Awb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop25.0%
Réserves en mois d'importationsIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_covermoClass Awb-wdi, imf-irfcl25.0%
Dette extérieure à court terme, part des réservesIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves%Class Awb-ids, wb-wdi25.0%
Encours de la dette extérieure, part du RNBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni%Class Awb-ids25.0%
05Domaine

Economic structure and trade

Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.

Sub-domainIndicateurs
Commerce4
Export and import concentration10
Supply-chain exposure3
Investissement1

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.

06Indicateurs

All 18 economic structure and trade indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
ECO · 18
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicateurDomaineSub-domainComposantUnitéNiveauxCrosswalks
Ouverture commerciale (exportations plus importations, part du PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdpECOCommerceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
Recettes du tourisme international, part des exportationsIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exportsECOCommercevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS
Envois de fonds personnels reçus, part du PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdpECOCommerceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2
Aide publique au développement nette reçue, part du RNBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gniECOCommerceexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS
Concentration des produits exportés (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Concentration des marchés d'exportation (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Dépendance aux exportations de produits de baseIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN
Produits manufacturés, part des exportations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_shareECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN
Rentes des ressources naturelles, part du PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdpECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS
Indice de complexité économiqueIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexityECOExport and import concentrationadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRY
Importations alimentaires, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN
Importations de carburants, part des importations de marchandisesIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_shareECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Concentration des origines des importations (IHH normalisé)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhiECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability1COUNTRY
Part de la valeur ajoutée étrangère dans les exportations brutesIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participationECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de biens intermédiaires importésIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentrationECOSupply-chain exposurevulnerability%COUNTRY
Commerce maritime exposé aux points d'étranglement maritimesIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposureECOSupply-chain exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Entrées nettes d'investissements directs étrangers, part du PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdpECOInvestissementcoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS
07Cotation

External dependence risk index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Édition précédente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composite couplé
–
Score de couplage S
–
Pulse, dernière semaine
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Méthode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Tirages
1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition

Aucune valeur publiée pour l'instant. La première édition trace ici l'historique avec sa bande d'intervalle et les bornes de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Afrique54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
Amériques35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
Asie48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
Europe44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
Océanie14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
Aucune évolution pour l'instant. Les changements depuis l'édition précédente seront listés ici à partir de la deuxième édition, avec les indicateurs qui les ont déterminés.
08Valeurs

Country values

FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Chargement de la carte
AndorreAntigua-et-BarbudaBahreïnBarbadeComoresCabo VerdeDominiqueMicronésie (États fédérés de)GrenadeKiribatiSaint-Kitts-et-NevisSainte-LucieLiechtensteinMonacoMaldivesÎles MarshallMalteMauriceNauruPalaosSingapourSaint-MarinSao Tomé-et-PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSaint-SiègeSaint-Vincent-et-les GrenadinesSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tuiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Clé d'observation
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Séries

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk. SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security. SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks. SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction. XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure. XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI16
SDG1
IMF_WEO1
11Dans le Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.