The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-ECO · MSF Macro-financial and structural fragility
Índice de riesgo de dependencia externa
Weighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
Page GRX-IDX-ECOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
arithmetic
expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Incertidumbre
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
Estructura
5 components
22 leaf indicators
Cobertura
80% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
22
leaf indicators
5
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
7
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
Dependence channels add up rather than interact, so a compensatory mean is used; sub-indices stay visible and the uncertainty run tests geometric and Mazziotta–Pareto alternatives.
computation
How External dependence risk is computedGraph30 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Compuesto
100%
Índice
- Apertura comercial (exportaciones más importaciones, porcentaje del PIB)Indicator · IND · %Sum of exports and imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP.
- Ingresos por turismo internacional, porcentaje de las exportacionesIndicator · IND · %Spending by international inbound visitors, including passenger transport paid to resident carriers, as a percentage of total exports of goods and services.
- Remesas personales recibidas, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Personal transfers and compensation of employees received from non-residents as a percentage of GDP.
- Asistencia oficial para el desarrollo neta recibida, porcentaje del INBIndicator · IND · %Net disbursements of concessional official development assistance and official aid received as a percentage of gross national income.
- Entradas netas de inversión extranjera directa, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Net incurrence of direct-investment liabilities to non-resident investors (equity, reinvested earnings and intercompany debt) as a percentage of GDP.
- Concentración de productos de exportación (IHH normalizado)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across SITC three-digit products, on a 0–1 scale.
- Concentración de mercados de exportación (IHH normalizado)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise export shares across destination economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primasIndicator · IND · %Primary commodities (SITC 0-4, 68, 667 and 971: food, agricultural raw materials, fuels, ores, metals, pearls and gold) as a percentage of merchandise exports.
- Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Sum of oil, gas, coal, mineral and forest rents (value of extraction above production cost) as a percentage of GDP.
- Volatilidad de la relación de intercambio (10 años)Indicator · IND · %Standard deviation of annual percentage changes in the ratio of export to import unit-value indices over the latest ten years with data.
- Índice de complejidad económicaIndicator · IND · scoreScore of the diversity and sophistication of a country’s export capabilities, derived from the network of products it exports with revealed comparative advantage; standardised across countries.
- Importaciones de alimentos, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIndicator · IND · %Food and live animals, beverages, tobacco, animal and vegetable oils and oilseeds (SITC 0, 1, 4 and 22) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIndicator · IND · %Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC 3) as a percentage of merchandise imports.
- Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIndicator · IND · %Trade-weighted average, across a declared critical-minerals list (IEA scope), of net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production plus imports minus exports), capped at 0–100%.
- Concentración del origen de las importaciones (IHH normalizado)Indicator · IND · 1Normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index of merchandise import shares across origin economies, on a 0–1 scale.
- Proporción de valor añadido extranjero en las exportaciones brutasIndicator · IND · %Share of foreign value added embodied in the country’s gross exports (backward global-value-chain participation).
- Concentración de proveedores de las importaciones de bienes intermediosIndicator · IND · %Import-weighted average across HS six-digit intermediate products (BEC classification) of the share supplied by the single largest origin economy.
- Comercio marítimo expuesto a puntos de estrangulamiento marítimosIndicator · IND · %Share of the value of seaborne merchandise trade whose modelled route passes through at least one major maritime chokepoint (for example Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Hormuz, Malacca, Panama).
- Saldo por cuenta corriente, porcentaje del PIBIndicator · IND · %Balance of trade in goods and services, primary and secondary income, as a percentage of GDP (BPM6).
- Reservas en meses de importacionesIndicator · IND · moGross international reserves (including gold) divided by the monthly value of imports of goods and services.
- Deuda externa a corto plazo, porcentaje de las reservasIndicator · IND · %External debt with original maturity of one year or less as a percentage of gross international reserves.
- Saldo de la deuda externa, porcentaje del INBIndicator · IND · %Total external debt owed to non-residents (public, publicly guaranteed, private non-guaranteed, IMF credit and short-term) as a percentage of GNI.
- External flow dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
- Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
- Essential import dependence sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1.5 · 26.1%Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
- Supply-chain exposure sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 0.75 · 13.0%Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
- External vulnerability sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 17.4%Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
- Índice de riesgo de dependencia externaDomain index · IDX · arithmeticWeighted arithmetic mean of the four ECO sub-indices and the MAC external vulnerability sub-index, each on 0–10.
- Fragilidad macrofinanciera y estructuralPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate external dependence risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
se ejecuta en su navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Método
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- NONE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- IDENTITY
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 80% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- experto
- Aggregation
- arithmetic
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertidumbre
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; UN Economic Vulnerability Index (structure only)
Muy bajo0,0 a < 2,0
Bajo2,0 a < 3,5
Medio3,5 a < 5,0
Alto5,0 a < 6,5
Muy alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components
5 components, 22 indicators
External flow dependence sub-index w 1
Composite of trade openness, tourism receipts, remittances, official aid dependence and FDI inflows.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Apertura comercial (exportaciones más importaciones, porcentaje del PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Ingresos por turismo internacional, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-tourism | 22.2% |
Remesas personales recibidas, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, wb-knomad, imf-bop | 22.2% |
Asistencia oficial para el desarrollo neta recibida, porcentaje del INBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | % | Class A | wb-wdi, oecd-dac | 22.2% |
Entradas netas de inversión extranjera directa, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-bop, unctad-fdi | 11.1% |
Export concentration and commodity dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of product and market concentration, commodity dependence, resource rents, terms-of-trade volatility and economic complexity.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Concentración de productos de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | 1 | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade | 18.2% |
Concentración de mercados de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 13.6% |
Dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | % | Class B | unctad-stat, un-comtrade, wb-wdi | 18.2% |
Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | % | Class C | wb-wdi, wb-changing-wealth-of-nations | 13.6% |
Volatilidad de la relación de intercambio (10 años)IND.MAC.external.terms_of_trade_volatility | % | Class B | derived:unctad-stat, derived:imf-weo | 18.2% |
Índice de complejidad económicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | {score} | Class C | harvard-growth-lab-atlas:licence-check, oec-world:licence-check | 18.2% |
Essential import dependence sub-index w 1.5
Composite of food and fuel import shares, critical-mineral net import reliance and import origin concentration.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Importaciones de alimentos, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | % | Class B | wb-wdi, un-comtrade | 28.6% |
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, usgs-mineral-commodity-summaries, iea-critical-minerals | 14.3% |
Concentración del origen de las importaciones (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | 1 | Class B | un-comtrade, imf-dots, unctad-stat | 28.6% |
Supply-chain exposure sub-index w 0.75
Composite of backward value-chain participation, intermediate-input supplier concentration and maritime chokepoint exposure.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Proporción de valor añadido extranjero en las exportaciones brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | % | Class C | oecd-tiva, adb-mrio, unctad-eora | 33.3% |
Concentración de proveedores de las importaciones de bienes intermediosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, derived:cepii-baci | 33.3% |
Comercio marítimo expuesto a puntos de estrangulamiento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | % | Class D | derived:un-comtrade, imf-portwatch, ais-vessel-tracking:licensed | 33.3% |
External vulnerability sub-index w 1
Composite of current-account balance, reserve cover, short-term debt to reserves and external debt.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Saldo por cuenta corriente, porcentaje del PIBIND.MAC.external.current_account.gdp | % | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-weo, imf-bop | 25.0% |
Reservas en meses de importacionesIND.MAC.external.reserves_import_cover | mo | Class A | wb-wdi, imf-irfcl | 25.0% |
Deuda externa a corto plazo, porcentaje de las reservasIND.MAC.external.short_term_debt_to_reserves | % | Class A | wb-ids, wb-wdi | 25.0% |
Saldo de la deuda externa, porcentaje del INBIND.MAC.external.external_debt.gni | % | Class A | wb-ids | 25.0% |
05Dominio
Economic structure and trade
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Comercio | 4 |
| Export and import concentration | 10 |
| Supply-chain exposure | 3 |
| Inversión | 1 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN Comtrade; UNCTAD; WB WDI.
06Indicadores
All 18 economic structure and trade indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apertura comercial (exportaciones más importaciones, porcentaje del PIB)IND.ECO.trade.trade_openness.gdp | ECO | Comercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS |
Ingresos por turismo internacional, porcentaje de las exportacionesIND.ECO.trade.tourism_receipts.exports | ECO | Comercio | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI ST.INT.RCPT.XP.ZS |
Remesas personales recibidas, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.trade.remittances.gdp | ECO | Comercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS SDG 17.3.2 |
Asistencia oficial para el desarrollo neta recibida, porcentaje del INBIND.ECO.trade.oda_dependence.gni | ECO | Comercio | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI DT.ODA.ODAT.GN.ZS |
Concentración de productos de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_product_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Concentración de mercados de exportación (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.export_market_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Dependencia de las exportaciones de materias primasIND.ECO.concentration.commodity_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.MMTL.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN WB_WDI TX.VAL.AGRI.ZS.UN |
Manufacturas, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.manufactures_export_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.MANF.ZS.UN |
Rentas de los recursos naturales, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.concentration.natural_resource_rents.gdp | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS |
Índice de complejidad económicaIND.ECO.concentration.economic_complexity | ECO | Export and import concentration | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
Importaciones de alimentos, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.food_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FOOD.ZS.UN |
Importaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las importaciones de mercancíasIND.ECO.concentration.fuel_import_share | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TM.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Dependencia neta de las importaciones de minerales críticosIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Concentración del origen de las importaciones (IHH normalizado)IND.ECO.concentration.import_partner_hhi | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
Proporción de valor añadido extranjero en las exportaciones brutasIND.ECO.supply_chain.gvc_backward_participation | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Concentración de proveedores de las importaciones de bienes intermediosIND.ECO.supply_chain.intermediate_supplier_concentration | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
Comercio marítimo expuesto a puntos de estrangulamiento marítimosIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Entradas netas de inversión extranjera directa, porcentaje del PIBIND.ECO.investment.fdi_inflows.gdp | ECO | Inversión | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI BX.KLT.DINV.WD.GD.ZS |
07Cita
External dependence risk index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · ECO · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
External dependence risk index, world
–
Los valores se publican con la edición; el intervalo, la clase y la variación aparecen aquí.
- Edición anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Compuesto acoplado
- –
- Puntuación de acoplamiento S
- –
- Pulso, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Extracciones
- 1,000
External dependence risk index, world, by edition
Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.
África54
Américas35
Asia48
Europa44
Aún no hay movimientos. A partir de la segunda edición, aquí se enumeran los cambios respecto de la edición anterior, con los indicadores que los provocaron.
08Valores
Country values
FIG 5 · External dependence risk index: countries (values when released)
Cargando el mapa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/eco/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clave de observación
nis:IDX.ECO.trade.external_dependence_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Serie
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-05Global Finance and economyFiscal and public debt risk, financial stability, external dependence, inflation and growth at risk, and the macro-financial channels of physical and transition risk.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-03Supply chains, trade and chokepointsTrade concentration, maritime and overland chokepoints, input–output exposure and the propagation of supply shocks.→ SR-04MineralsCritical-mineral concentration, processing dependency, price and export-restriction risk, and the environmental and social footprint of extraction.→ XT-06SemiconductorsSemiconductor supply concentration, fabrication chokepoints, materials and equipment dependency and export-control exposure.→ XT-16Advanced manufacturingAdvanced and additive manufacturing, industrial automation and their supply, cyber and labour risks.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
WB_WDI | 16 |
SDG | 1 |
IMF_WEO | 1 |
11En todo el Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
En todo el Nexus
GCRI Trade and Strategic Resources · Food Nexus · GCRI Advanced Industry and Robotics.
12Citar
Citar y reutilizar
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): External dependence risk index (GRX-IDX-ECO), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/external-dependence-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000118.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.