Skip to content

Foundry

El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
Muy bajo0,0 a < 2,0
Bajo2,0 a < 3,5
Medio3,5 a < 5,0
Alto5,0 a < 6,5
Muy alto6.5 a 10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
definiciones de indicadores
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01Principios

Eight principles

P1

Una familia de índices, no una puntuación monolítica

NXS-GRX (datos canónicos, procedencia y riesgo) publica veinte índices de dominio, cuatro índices de pilar, un compuesto y seis instrumentos. El compuesto nunca aparece sin todos los pilares y dominios a su lado, y ninguna dimensión independiente se agrega de forma silenciosa.

P2

Clases con intervalos, nunca clasificaciones

Cada valor lleva un intervalo del 90 % obtenido de un análisis de Monte Carlo sobre la normalización, las ponderaciones, la imputación y la agregación. Los países se sitúan en clases de riesgo con una probabilidad de clase declarada; las páginas enumeran los países por nombre o código, nunca por valor.

P3

Sin datos no es cero

Un dato de entrada que falta se muestra como faltante, un dato imputado se señala y un valor se retiene cuando la cobertura cae por debajo del mínimo del método. Un perfil vacío, una fuente no disponible y un cero observado se muestran de forma distinta.

P4

Cada valor remite a su fuente

Cada valor lleva su versión de fuente, su licencia, su hora de obtención, su versión de método y su cadena de transformación (W3C PROV). Una corrección en cualquier punto se propaga a todos los valores dependientes y se registra públicamente.

P5

Lo medido, lo modelizado y lo percibido se mantienen separados

Los glifos de estado distinguen datos observados, informados, estimados, inferidos, pronosticados, simulados, de escenario y de experto. Las señales de percepción forman su propio instrumento y nunca se mezclan con el riesgo medido.

P6

Sistémico por construcción

El riesgo independiente y el riesgo ajustado por acoplamiento se presentan uno junto al otro, a partir de redes de dependencias tipadas en comercio, finanzas, energía, alimentación, infraestructura e información.

P7

Sujeto a licencia y reproducible

Una fuente entra en un valor público solo cuando su licencia admite ese uso; los valores retenidos se contabilizan, no se ocultan. Los métodos, rutas de código, semillas y resúmenes se publican en cada versión para que cualquier valor pueda recalcularse.

P8

Información, no autoridad

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación, una clasificación oficial, una alerta, un índice de referencia ni un consejo, y nunca decide por una institución.

02Cadena de procesamiento

De la fuente al perfil

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
Grafo
01Fuentes
02Harmonise
03Indicadores
04Sub-indices
05Ámbitos
06Pilares
07Composite and instruments
08Resultados

100%
Índice
  1. Flujos de eventos

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 205 fuentes registradas

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. Familias de escenarios

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. Encuestas y elicitación

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    Consulta estructurada a expertos y encuestas públicas, separadas del riesgo medido.
  5. Red de dependencias

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    Comercio e insumo-producto, finanzas y deuda, energía, comercio de alimentos, infraestructura y vínculos de información.
  6. Series armonizadas

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 451 indicadores

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 86 subíndices

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    Componentes normalizados, ponderados y agregados dentro de cada dominio.
  9. 20 índices de dominio

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    Veinte índices de dominio con intervalos de Monte Carlo y análisis de sensibilidad.
  10. Puntuación de acoplamiento sistémico

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    Contagio en la red de dependencias: DebtRank, compensación y cascadas de umbral.
  11. Exposición a amenazas

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. Vulnerabilidad humana y de los sistemas

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. Fragilidad macrofinanciera y estructural

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. Falta de capacidad de afrontamiento y de adaptación

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. Pulso

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. Perspectiva

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    Probabilidades de eventos calibradas con cuadros de verificación.
  17. Cola

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. Trayectorias

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. Percepción

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    Gravedad percibida y brecha de percepción.
  20. Riesgo compuesto NXS-GRX

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 195 perfiles de país

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    Cada dominio, pilar e instrumento por país, nunca clasificados.
  22. 54 índices de series

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    Índices especializados a partir de los mismos índices de dominio.
  23. API, teselas y archivos masivos

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. Riesgo acoplado NXS-GRX

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Sin ejecutarEn cursoCompletado
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03Pilares

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · Exposición a amenazas y peligros

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · Vulnerabilidad humana y de los sistemas

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · Fragilidad macrofinanciera y estructural

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · Falta de capacidad de afrontamiento y de adaptación

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04Compuesto

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

Compuesto
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Compuesto acoplado
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
Incertidumbre
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
Cobertura
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
FIG 3 · Simulator: four pillars to the composite and coupled composite
Pilares (0 a 10)
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
Acoplamiento e incertidumbre
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

Simulador: Compuesto = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼, con cada pilar con un mínimo de 0,1; Acoplado = Compuesto × (1 + κ·S). Los sorteos varían ponderaciones, agregación y entradas. Las posiciones son puntos de partida, no valores NXS-GRX. Simulado con sus propios datos; no es un resultado medido.
05Clases

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

Muy bajo0,0 a < 2,0
Bajo2,0 a < 3,5
Medio3,5 a < 5,0
Alto5,0 a < 6,5
Muy alto6.5 a 10.0
06Construction

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

Ejecución de la publicación de la edición

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafo
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicadores
05Índices
06Índices
07Índices
08Incertidumbre
09Incertidumbre
10Revisión
11Revisión
12Publicar

100%
Cronología
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Pasos
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXRegistro PostgreSQL (seguridad a nivel de fila)
  2. Control de licencias

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registro de licencias
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXestándar de indicadores
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXestándar de indicadores
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos probados
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Veinte índices temáticos
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos probados
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Red de dependenciasNúcleos de modelos probados
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motor Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motor Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Núcleos de modelos probados
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registro PostgreSQL (seguridad a nivel de fila)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Teselas vectorialesDepósito en Zenodo
Artefactos
Producto Tarea Quién Fase
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Control de licencias Registro de licencias Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicadores Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Indicadores
SUB values Sub-indices Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
IDX values Índices de dominio Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
S per country Coupling score Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motor Monte Carlo Incertidumbre
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motor Monte Carlo Incertidumbre
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Revisión
Release decision Steward review Custodios Revisión
Edición Profiles and series Foundry Publicar
Teselas Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
CompletadoEn cursoEn espera de aprobaciónEn colaPunto de control de aprobaciónTarea de la matrizUsted está aquí
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation Lo que hace Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. Riesgo fiscal y de deuda pública · Amenaza física climática · Riesgo de seguridad hídrica · Riesgo de seguridad sanitaria · Vulnerabilidad socioeconómica · Riesgo de seguridad energética · Fragilidad de la infraestructura · Riesgo cibernético · Falta de capacidad de afrontamiento
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. Riesgo de estabilidad financiera · Riesgo de inseguridad alimentaria · Riesgo de conflicto
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. Riesgo de dependencia externa · Exposición a la transición climática · Presión ambiental · Presión de desplazamiento · Debilidad de la gobernanza · Riesgo de concentración tecnológica
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. Exposición multiamenaza
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. Exposición al clima espacial
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

Sin datos no es cero

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10Estado

Status and value states

Glifo Estado Medias
● OBSERVADO Medido directamente y publicado por la fuente
□ DECLARADO Informado o declarado por un editor, no medido de forma independiente
◆ ESTIMADO Estimado o modelizado con un método declarado
▲ INFERIDO Inferido de señales relacionadas
◇ PRONÓSTICO Enunciado probabilístico sobre un período futuro
◈ SIMULADO Resultado de una simulación o de un conjunto de eventos estocásticos
○ ESCENARIO Condicionado a un escenario nombrado, no una predicción
◎ APORTE EXPERTO Juicio de expertos estructurado
Value state Medias
PUBLISHED Publicado en una edición con intervalo, clase y fuentes
NO_DATA Ningún dato admitido; no es un cero
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE Cobertura inferior al mínimo del método; valor retenido
WITHHELD La licencia de un dato de entrada o el filtro de seguridad pública no permite su difusión pública; contabilizado
DEGRADED Publicado con una limitación de calidad declarada
11Instrumento

Pulso

Pregunta
¿Qué ha cambiado desde el último corte estructural?
Periodicidad
Estimación semanal en tiempo real, activada por eventos entre publicaciones
Método
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
Resultados
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
OBSERVADOINFERIDO
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12Instrumento

Perspectiva

Pregunta
¿Qué probabilidad tienen determinados resultados adversos en un horizonte dado?
Periodicidad
Mensual, horizontes de 1, 3, 12 y 36 meses
Método
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
Resultados
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
PRONÓSTICO
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13Instrumento

Trayectorias

Pregunta
¿Cómo evoluciona el riesgo en futuros alternativos hasta 2030, 2050 y 2100?
Periodicidad
Cada edición anual
Método
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
Resultados
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
ESCENARIOSIMULADO
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14Instrumento

Cola

Pregunta
¿Cómo es el extremo raro y severo de la distribución?
Periodicidad
Cada edición anual, actualizada ante eventos
Método
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
Resultados
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
SIMULADOMODELIZADO
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15Instrumento

Acoplamiento

Pregunta
¿Por dónde se propaga el riesgo entre sistemas y fronteras?
Periodicidad
Cada edición anual, con actualización trimestral de la red
Método
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
Resultados
  • Puntuación de acoplamiento sistémico S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
ESTIMADOSIMULADO
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
Agua
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
se ejecuta en su navegador

AguaEnergíaAlimentaciónSaludBiodiversidadFinanzasComercioInfraestructuraDigitalSeguridad

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16Instrumento

Percepción

Pregunta
¿Dónde difiere el riesgo percibido del riesgo medido?
Periodicidad
Rondas anuales de encuestas a expertos y al público
Método
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
Resultados
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
APORTE EXPERTODECLARADO
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

BorradorCalculadoLigado a la evidenciaRevisadoAprobado para su publicaciónPublicadoCorregidoSustituido
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

Estabilidad

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

Alerta temprana

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

Indicator Standard
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
Norma de amenazas
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

Formulario

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01RellenarLos campos marcados (obligatorio) son necesarios; todo lo demás facilita la revisión.
  2. 02ReferenciaRecibe una referencia en pantalla; el registro se guarda en la base de datos WordPress de este sitio.
  3. 03RevisiónEl resultado se registra públicamente. Los datos de contacto permanecen en este sitio y nunca se publican ni se comparten.
Form · grx-consult

Este formulario se abrirá aquí cuando se active. Mientras tanto, envíelo a través de la pasarela Nexus Reports.

Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

Estado

La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.

Lo que NXS-GRX no es

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.

Las señales Pulse y las probabilidades de perspectiva son información para revisión por las autoridades competentes, nunca alertas públicas; las alertas oficiales solo proceden de autoridades con mandato.

Instituciones y fuentes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.