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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
指標の定義
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01原則

Eight principles

P1

単一のスコアではなく、指数のファミリー

NXS-GRX （正規データ、来歴、リスク）は、20 の分野別指数、4 つの柱別指数、1 つの合成指数、6 つの手段を公表します。合成指数は、必ずすべての柱と分野を併記して示され、独立した次元が黙って統合されることはありません。

P2

区間付きの階級、順位表は使わない

すべての値には、正規化、重み、補完、集約に対するモンテカルロ分析による 90% 区間が付きます。各国は階級確率を明示してリスク階級に分類され、ページでは値ではなく国名またはコードで国を並べます。

P3

データなしはゼロではない

欠けている入力は欠損として表示し、補完した入力には印を付け、カバー率が手法の最低基準を下回る場合は値を公表しません。空のプロファイル、利用できない出典、観測されたゼロはそれぞれ異なる形で表示されます。

P4

すべての値は出典にたどり着く

すべての値は、情報源のリリース、ライセンス、取得時刻、手法のバージョン、変換の連鎖（W3C PROV）を伴います。どこかの訂正はすべての依存する値に伝播し、公開で記録されます。

P5

測定値、モデル値、認知値を分けて保持

ステータス記号は観測、報告、推計、推定、予報、シミュレーション、シナリオ、専門家の入力を区別します。認知シグナルは独立したツールとなり、測定されたリスクに混ぜることはありません。

P6

設計からシステミック

単独リスクと連成調整リスクを並べて報告します。貿易、金融、エネルギー、食料、インフラ、情報にわたる型付き依存ネットワークに基づきます。

P7

ライセンス管理下で再現可能

情報源はライセンスがその利用を認める場合にのみ公開値に入ります。非表示の値は隠さずに件数に含めます。手法、コードパス、シード、ダイジェストはリリースごとに公開され、どの値も再計算できます。

P8

情報であり、権威ではない

NXS-GRX は研究・リスク分析の情報です。格付け、公式分類、警報、ベンチマーク、助言ではなく、機関に代わって判断することはありません。

02パイプライン

情報源からプロファイルへ

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
グラフ
01出典
02Harmonise
03指標
04Sub-indices
05分野
06柱
07Composite and instruments
08成果物

100%
索引
  1. イベントストリーム

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 登録済みの出典 205

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. シナリオファミリー

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. 調査と専門家意見の聴取

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    構造化された専門家の意見聴取と市民調査。測定されたリスクとは区別して保持します。
  5. 依存ネットワーク

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    貿易と産業連関、金融と債務、エネルギー、食料貿易、インフラ、情報の結びつき。
  6. 調和済み系列

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 451 の指標

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 86 のサブ指数

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    各分野内で正規化、重み付け、集計された構成要素。
  9. 20 のドメイン指数

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    モンテカルロ区間と感度分析を備えた 20 の分野別指数。
  10. システミック連成スコア

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    依存関係ネットワーク上の伝染：DebtRank、清算、閾値カスケード。
  11. ハザードと脅威へのエクスポージャー

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. 人間とシステムの脆弱性

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. マクロ金融と構造の脆弱性

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. 対処能力と適応能力の不足

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. パルス

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. 見通し

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    検証スコアカードを備えた、較正された事象確率。
  17. テール

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. 経路

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. 認識

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    認識された深刻度と認識ギャップ。
  20. NXS-GRX 総合リスク

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 195 の国別プロファイル

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    国ごとのすべての分野、柱、手段。順位付けは一切行いません。
  22. 54 の系列指数

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    同じ分野別指数から導く専門指数。
  23. API、タイル、一括ファイル

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. NXS-GRX 結合リスク

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03柱

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · ハザードと脅威へのエクスポージャー

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · 人間とシステムの脆弱性

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · マクロ金融と構造の脆弱性

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · 対処能力と適応能力の欠如

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04総合

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

総合
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
結合総合
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
不確実性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
対象範囲
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
図 3 · シミュレーター：4 つの柱から合成指数と結合合成指数へ
柱（0〜10）
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
連成と不確実性
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
ブラウザで動作

シミュレーター：総合値 = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼（各柱の下限は 0.1）、連成値 = 総合値 × (1 + κ·S)。抽出ごとに重み・集約・入力が変わります。この位置は出発点であり、NXS-GRX の値ではありません。ご自身の入力によるシミュレーションであり、測定結果ではありません。
05区分

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
06Construction

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

版公表の実行

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

グラフ
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04指標
05指数
06指数
07指数
08不確実性
09不確実性
10レビュー
11レビュー
12公表

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX 実行サービスPostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  2. ライセンスの関門

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    ライセンス登録簿
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX 実行サービス指標標準
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX 実行サービス指標標準
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX 実行サービステスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    20 の分野別指数
    NXS-GRX 実行サービステスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    依存ネットワークテスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    モンテカルロ・エンジン
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    モンテカルロ・エンジン
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    テスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    ベクタータイルZenodo への登録
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX 実行サービス Cut
Withheld counts ライセンスの関門 ライセンス登録簿 Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX 実行サービス Ingest
IND values 指標 NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指標
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
IDX values 分野別指数 NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws モンテカルロ・エンジン 不確実性
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol モンテカルロ・エンジン 不確実性
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer レビュー
Release decision Steward review スチュワード レビュー
版 Profiles and series Foundry 公表
タイル Tiles and bulk files Foundry 公表
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry 公表
完了進行中承認待ち待機中承認ゲートマトリクス・ジョブ現在地
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation 機能 Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. 財政・公的債務リスク · 気候の物理的ハザード · 水安全保障リスク · 健康安全保障リスク · 社会経済的脆弱性 · エネルギー安全保障リスク · インフラの脆弱性 · サイバーリスク · 対処能力の不足
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. 金融安定リスク · 食料不安全リスク · 紛争リスク
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. 対外依存リスク · 気候移行エクスポージャー · 環境負荷 · 避難の圧力 · ガバナンスの脆弱性 · 技術集中リスク
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. マルチハザード・エクスポージャー
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. 宇宙天気エクスポージャー
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
–
ブラウザで動作

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

データなしはゼロではない

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10ステータス

Status and value states

グリフ ステータス 平均値
● 観測 情報源が直接測定し公表
□ 報告 発行者による報告または宣言で、独立した測定ではない
◆ 推定 記載された手法による推計またはモデル値
▲ 推論 関連シグナルから推定
◇ 予測 将来の期間に関する確率的な記述
◈ シミュレーション シミュレーションまたは確率的イベントセットの出力
○ シナリオ 特定のシナリオを条件とするもので、予測ではない
◎ 専門家の入力 構造化された専門家判断
Value state 平均値
PUBLISHED 区間、階級、出典付きで版として公表
NO_DATA 採用済みの入力なし。ゼロではない
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE カバレッジが手法の最低基準未満。値は非表示
WITHHELD 入力データのライセンスまたは公開安全性の審査により公開表示が認められません。件数には含めます
DEGRADED 品質上の制約を明記して公表
11インストゥルメント

パルス

問い
前回の構造的な締め切り以降、何が変わったのか。
周期
週次のナウキャスト、公開の合間は事象に応じて
手法
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
成果物
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
観測推論
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12インストゥルメント

見通し

問い
定められた期間に、特定の不利な結果が起こる可能性はどれくらいか。
周期
月次、予測期間は 1、3、12、36 か月
手法
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
成果物
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
予測
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
–
ブラウザで動作

Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13インストゥルメント

経路

問い
2030 年、2050 年、2100 年に向けた代替的な将来のもとで、リスクはどう変化するか。
周期
毎年の版
手法
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
成果物
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
シナリオシミュレーション
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
–
ブラウザで動作

Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14インストゥルメント

テール

問い
分布のまれで深刻な端はどのような形か。
周期
毎年の版、事象に応じて更新
手法
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
成果物
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
シミュレーションモデル
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
ブラウザで動作

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15インストゥルメント

結合

問い
リスクはシステムと国境を越えてどこへ伝わるのか。
周期
毎年の版、ネットワークは四半期ごとに更新
手法
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
成果物
  • システミック連成スコア S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
推定シミュレーション
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
水
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.2
–
ブラウザで動作

水エネルギー食料健康生物多様性金融貿易インフラDigitalセキュリティ

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16インストゥルメント

認識

問い
認識されたリスクと測定されたリスクはどこで異なるのか。
周期
年次の専門家・一般調査
手法
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
成果物
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
専門家の入力報告
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

草案算出済みエビデンスに拘束審査済み公表承認済み公開済み訂正済み置き換え済み
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

安定

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

早期警戒

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

指標標準
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
ハザード標準
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

フォーム

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01入力する（必須）と記された項目は入力が必要です。その他の項目は審査に役立ちます。
  2. 02参照番号画面に受付番号が表示されます。記録はこのサイトの WordPress データベースに保管されます。
  3. 03レビュー結果は公開で記録されます。連絡先はこのサイト内に留まり、公開や共有は一切されません。
Form · grx-consult

このフォームは有効になるとここで開きます。それまでは次の窓口からお送りください： Nexus Reports ゲートウェイ.

Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

Pulse シグナルと見通しの確率は所管当局による検討のための情報であり、公的な警報ではありません。公式の警報は権限を持つ当局のみが発します。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.