The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
ハザードの分野
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
大気と気象atmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
水系water |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
氷と雪cryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
固体地球geo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
宇宙と地球近傍space |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
陸域と生態系eco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
プラネタリー・バウンダリーと地球システムの転換点planet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
汚染と有害物質poll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
健康とバイオセキュリティhealth |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
建造システムinfra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
情報とサイバー・フィジカル・システムcyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術tech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
社会、紛争、経済soc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
システミック事象と複合事象sys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
水water |
||
エネルギーenergy |
||
食料food |
||
健康health |
||
生物多様性biodiversity |
||
重要インフラcritical-infrastructure |
||
Global risksglobal-risks |
||
Nexusnexus |
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
壊滅的リスクcatastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
金融システムFIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
気候CLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
健康HLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
食料システムFOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
水WAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
エネルギーENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
インフラINF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
サイバーとデジタルCYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
ガバナンスと制度GOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
紛争と安全保障CON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
環境と生物多様性ENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
ハザードHAZARD |
||
エクスポージャーEXPOSURE |
||
VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
||
Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
||
Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
||
対応RESPONSE |
||
ImpactIMPACT |
||
背景CONTEXT |
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
ハザードHAZARD |
||
エクスポージャーEXPOSURE |
||
VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
||
ImpactIMPACT |
||
LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD |
||
リスクRISK |
||
CapacityCAPACITY |
||
対応RESPONSE |
||
FinancingFINANCING |
||
成果OUTCOME |
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
普遍的な数学と統計universal-mathematics-statistics |
||
ハザード科学hazard-science |
||
エクスポージャーと資産のインテリジェンスexposure-asset-intelligence |
||
脆弱性、フラジリティ、レジリエンスvulnerability-fragility-resilience |
||
影響と損失consequence-loss |
||
カタストロフィ・リスクcatastrophe-risk |
||
ネットワーク、依存関係、システミック・リスクnetwork-dependency-systemic |
||
金融リスクfinancial-risk |
||
保険と再保険insurance-reinsurance |
||
市場、貿易、サプライチェーンmarket-trade-supply-chain |
||
Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
||
政策、規制、ガバナンスpolicy-regulation-governance |
||
水リスクwater-risk |
||
食料、農業、漁業food-agriculture-fisheries |
||
エネルギー・リスクenergy-risk |
||
保健と疫学health-epidemiology |
||
気候、自然、生物多様性climate-nature-biodiversity |
||
Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
||
サイバー、AI、フロンティア技術cyber-ai-frontier-tech |
||
地政学、紛争、人間の安全保障geopolitical-conflict-human-security |
||
プロジェクト、プログラム、インフラ投資project-programme-infrastructure-investment |
||
リスクデータrisk-data |
||
科学的保証scientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
||
NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
||
NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
||
NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
||
NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
||
NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
||
NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
||
NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
||
NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
||
NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
||
NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
||
NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
||
NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
||
NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
||
NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
||
NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
||
NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
||
NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
||
NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
||
NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus |
||
Banking Nexusbanking-nexus |
||
Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
||
Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
||
Capital Nexuscapital-nexus |
||
開発金融 Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
||
Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
||
Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
||
Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
||
Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus |
||
Food Nexusfood-nexus |
||
Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus |
||
Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus |
||
Health Nexushealth-nexus |
||
Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus |
||
Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
||
Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus |
||
Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
||
Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
||
Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
||
Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
||
Nexus Reportsnexus-reports |
||
Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus |
||
Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
||
Research Nexusresearch-nexus |
||
Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
||
Water Nexuswater-nexus |
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | 標準 |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
||
海洋maritime |
||
Railrail |
||
Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
||
Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
||
Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
||
Cities urbancities-urban |
||
Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
||
Data centresdata-centers |
||
半導体semiconductors |
||
Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
||
Space satellitespace-satellite |
||
Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
||
Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
||
Chemicals processchemicals-process |
||
Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
||
Forests landforests-land |
||
Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
||
Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
||
Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
||
Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
||
Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
||
Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
||
Education workforceeducation-workforce |
||
Digital governmentdigital-government |
||
Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
||
Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
||
Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
||
Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
||
Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
||
Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
||
Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
||
Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
||
Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
||
Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
||
重要インフラcritical-infrastructure |
||
Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
||
Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
||
Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
||
Islands small statesislands-small-states |
||
Arctic polararctic-polar |
||
Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
||
Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
||
Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
||
Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
||
Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
||
Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
||
Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
||
Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
||
Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案(2026 年)であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.