The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED
The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
Seite GRX-TAXAusgabe Basisausgabe 2026Evidenzschluss 2026-09-30Werte noch nicht veröffentlichtMethode v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
Gefahren
Gefahrenbereiche
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Atmosphäre und Wetteratmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
Wassersystemewater |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
Eis und Schneecryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
Feste Erdegeo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
Weltraum und erdnaher Raumspace |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
Land und Ökosystemeeco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
Planetare Grenzen und Kipppunkte des Erdsystemsplanet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
Verschmutzung und Gefahrstoffepoll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
Gesundheit und Biosicherheithealth |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
Gebaute Systemeinfra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
Informations- und cyberphysische Systemecyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
Grenz- und Exponentialtechnologientech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
Gesellschaft, Konflikt und Wirtschaftsoc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
Systemische und zusammengesetzte Ereignissesys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
02Hazard Standard (Gefahren)
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Wasserwater |
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Energieenergy |
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Ernährungfood |
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Gesundheithealth |
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Biodiversitätbiodiversity |
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Kritische Infrastrukturcritical-infrastructure |
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Global risksglobal-risks |
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Nexusnexus |
03Hazard Standard (Gefahren)
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
Katastrophenrisikocatastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
FinanzsystemFIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
KlimaCLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
GesundheitHLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
ErnährungssystemeFOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
WasserWAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
EnergieENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
InfrastrukturINF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
Cyber und DigitalesCYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
Governance und InstitutionenGOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
Konflikt und SicherheitCON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
Umwelt und BiodiversitätENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
05Indicator Standard
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
GefahrHAZARD |
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ExpositionEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
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Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
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ReaktionRESPONSE |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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KontextCONTEXT |
06Facet
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
GefahrHAZARD |
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ExpositionEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD |
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RisikoRISK |
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CapacityCAPACITY |
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ReaktionRESPONSE |
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FinancingFINANCING |
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ErgebnisOUTCOME |
07nrm
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Universelle Mathematik und Statistikuniversal-mathematics-statistics |
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Gefahrenwissenschafthazard-science |
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Expositions- und Anlagen-Intelligenceexposure-asset-intelligence |
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Verwundbarkeit, Fragilität und Resilienzvulnerability-fragility-resilience |
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Folgen und Schädenconsequence-loss |
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Katastrophenrisiko (Versicherung)catastrophe-risk |
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Netzwerke, Abhängigkeit und systemisches Risikonetwork-dependency-systemic |
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Finanzrisikofinancial-risk |
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Versicherung und Rückversicherunginsurance-reinsurance |
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Märkte, Handel und Lieferkettenmarket-trade-supply-chain |
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Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
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Politik, Regulierung und Governancepolicy-regulation-governance |
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Wasserrisikowater-risk |
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Ernährung, Landwirtschaft und Fischereifood-agriculture-fisheries |
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Energierisikoenergy-risk |
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Gesundheit und Epidemiologiehealth-epidemiology |
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Klima, Natur und Biodiversitätclimate-nature-biodiversity |
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Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
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Cyber, KI und Frontier-Technologiencyber-ai-frontier-tech |
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Geopolitik, Konflikt und menschliche Sicherheitgeopolitical-conflict-human-security |
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Projekte, Programme und Infrastrukturinvestitionenproject-programme-infrastructure-investment |
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Risikodatenrisk-data |
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Wissenschaftliche Qualitätssicherungscientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
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NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
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NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
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NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
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NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
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NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
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NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
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NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
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NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
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NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
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NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
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NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
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NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
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NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
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NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
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NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
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NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
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NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
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NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
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NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
09Facet
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus |
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Banking Nexusbanking-nexus |
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Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
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Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
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Capital Nexuscapital-nexus |
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Development Finance Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
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Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
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Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
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Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
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Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus |
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Food Nexusfood-nexus |
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Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus |
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Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus |
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Health Nexushealth-nexus |
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Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus |
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Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
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Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus |
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Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
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Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
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Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
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Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
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Nexus Reportsnexus-reports |
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Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus |
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Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
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Research Nexusresearch-nexus |
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Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
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Water Nexuswater-nexus |
10Facet
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | Normen |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
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Maritimmaritime |
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Railrail |
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Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
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Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
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Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
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Cities urbancities-urban |
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Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
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Data centresdata-centers |
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Halbleitersemiconductors |
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Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
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Space satellitespace-satellite |
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Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
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Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
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Chemicals processchemicals-process |
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Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
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Forests landforests-land |
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Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
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Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
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Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
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Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
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Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
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Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
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Education workforceeducation-workforce |
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Digital governmentdigital-government |
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Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
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Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
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Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
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Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
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Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
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Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
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Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
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Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
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Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
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Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
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Kritische Infrastrukturcritical-infrastructure |
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Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
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Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
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Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
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Islands small statesislands-small-states |
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Arctic polararctic-polar |
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Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
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Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
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Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
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Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
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Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
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Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
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Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
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Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
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Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
Status
Methodik, Struktur und Definitionen des Global Risks Index sind ein vorbereitender Arbeitsentwurf (2026), der zur Prüfung und Stellungnahme und nicht zur Umsetzung verbreitet wird. Kein Wert erscheint, bevor eine Ausgabe aus einem geregelten Evidenzschnitt veröffentlicht ist; die Werte tragen dann Intervalle, Klassen, Quellen und ihren Korrekturweg. Die Simulatoren wenden die veröffentlichten Methoden auf Zahlen an, die Sie wählen, und zeigen niemals einen NXS-GRX-Wert.
Was NXS-GRX nicht ist
NXS-GRX ist eine Forschungs- und Risikoanalyseinformation. Es ist kein Kredit- oder ESG-Rating und verwendet keine Ratingskala, kein Referenzwert für Finanzinstrumente, keine amtliche Statistik, keine Notfallwarnung oder amtliche Einstufung und keine Beratung. Es darf nicht zur Bewertung natürlicher Personen verwendet werden. Risikoklassen sind Bänder auf einer veröffentlichten Skala, niemals Rangfolgen von Ländern oder Personen.
Institutionen und Quellen
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
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Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.