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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED

The systemic risk taxonomy

Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.

Página GRX-TAXEdição Edição de referência 2026Fecho das evidências 2026-09-30Valores ainda não publicadosMétodo v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
ameaças

domínios de ameaça

Node Definition Normas
Atmosfera e tempoatmo Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies.
Sistemas hídricoswater Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation.
Gelo e nevecryo Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice.
Terra sólidageo Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion.
Espaço e ambiente próximo da Terraspace Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris.
Terras e ecossistemaseco Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts.
Limites planetários e pontos de inflexão do sistema Terraplanet Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes.
Poluição e substâncias perigosaspoll Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures.
Saúde e biossegurançahealth Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems.
Sistemas construídosinfra Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants.
Sistemas de informação e ciberfísicoscyber Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on.
Tecnologias de fronteira e exponenciaistech Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology.
Sociedade, conflito e economiasoc Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage.
Eventos sistêmicos e compostossys Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread.
02Norma de Ameaças

Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)

03Norma de Ameaças

risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)

Node Definition Normas
Global riskglobal A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it.
Risco catastróficocatastrophic A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from.
Existential riskexistential A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential.
Emerging riskemerging A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature.
Planetary riskplanetary A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole.
Exponential riskexponential A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response.
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment.

indicator domains

Node Definition Normas
MacroeconomyMAC Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy.
Fiscal and public debtFIS Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities.
Sistema financeiroFIN Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk.
ClimaCLI Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
Hazard and exposureHAZ Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard.
SaúdeHLT Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness.
Sistemas alimentaresFOO Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity.
ÁguaWAT Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence.
EnergiaENE Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition.
InfraestruturaINF Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems.
Cibernético e digitalCYB Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure.
Governança e instituiçõesGOV Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity.
Conflito e segurançaCON Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace.
Social and human developmentSOC Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development.
Demography and mobilityDEM Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement.
Meio ambiente e biodiversidadeENV Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence.
Technology and frontierTEC Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum).
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps.
Economic structure and tradeECO Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity.
Space environmentSPC Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services.
05Indicator Standard

Indicator Standard risk components

Node Definition Normas
AmeaçaHAZARD
ExposiçãoEXPOSURE
VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY
Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY
Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY
RespostaRESPONSE
ImpactIMPACT
ContextoCONTEXT
06Facet

systemic risk chain stages

Node Definition Normas
AmeaçaHAZARD
ExposiçãoEXPOSURE
VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY
ImpactIMPACT
LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD
RiscoRISK
CapacityCAPACITY
RespostaRESPONSE
FinancingFINANCING
ResultadoOUTCOME
07nrm

Method libraries

Node Definition Normas
Matemática e estatística universaisuniversal-mathematics-statistics
Ciência das ameaçashazard-science
Inteligência de exposição e de ativosexposure-asset-intelligence
Vulnerabilidade, fragilidade e resiliênciavulnerability-fragility-resilience
Consequências e perdasconsequence-loss
Risco catastróficocatastrophe-risk
Redes, dependência e risco sistêmiconetwork-dependency-systemic
Risco financeirofinancial-risk
Seguros e ressegurosinsurance-reinsurance
Mercados, comércio e cadeias de suprimentosmarket-trade-supply-chain
Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development
Políticas, regulação e governançapolicy-regulation-governance
Risco hídricowater-risk
Alimentos, agricultura e pescafood-agriculture-fisheries
Risco energéticoenergy-risk
Saúde e epidemiologiahealth-epidemiology
Clima, natureza e biodiversidadeclimate-nature-biodiversity
Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial
Cibernética, IA e tecnologias de fronteiracyber-ai-frontier-tech
Geopolítica, conflito e segurança humanageopolitical-conflict-human-security
Projetos, programas e investimento em infraestruturaproject-programme-infrastructure-investment
Dados de riscorisk-data
Garantia científicascientific-assurance

The twenty functional system classes

Node Definition Normas
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis
NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture
NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support
NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime
NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle
NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance
NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins
NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning
NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action
NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity
NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing
NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt
NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance
NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records
NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow
NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing
NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle
NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements
NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery
NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation
09Facet

Nexus Universe platforms

Node Definition Normas
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus
Banking Nexusbanking-nexus
Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus
Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus
Capital Nexuscapital-nexus
Development Finance Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus
Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus
Energy Nexusenergy-nexus
Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus
Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus
Food Nexusfood-nexus
Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus
Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus
Health Nexushealth-nexus
Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus
Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus
Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus
Nexus Agencynexus-agency
Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns
Nexus Labsnexus-labs
Nexus Registrynexus-registry
Nexus Reportsnexus-reports
Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus
Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus
Research Nexusresearch-nexus
Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus
Water Nexuswater-nexus
10Facet

Universe applied domain packs

Node Definition Normas
Aviationaviation
Marítimomaritime
Railrail
Roads mobilityroads-mobility
Transport logisticstransport-logistics
Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors
Cities urbancities-urban
Buildings housingbuildings-housing
Data centresdata-centers
Semicondutoressemiconductors
Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure
Space satellitespace-satellite
Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals
Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial
Chemicals processchemicals-process
Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy
Forests landforests-land
Oceans coastaloceans-coastal
Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy
Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation
Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon
Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience
Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis
Education workforceeducation-workforce
Digital governmentdigital-government
Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk
Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy
Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem
Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy
Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption
Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience
Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion
Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage
Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural
Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure
Infraestrutura críticacritical-infrastructure
Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure
Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade
Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience
Islands small statesislands-small-states
Arctic polararctic-polar
Cross border basinscross-border-basins
Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization
Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery
Emergency communicationsemergency-communications
Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains
Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply
Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience
Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects
Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure
11Facet

Programme pillars

Node Definition Normas
Nexus Universeuniverse
Risk Academyacademy

Propose a change to the taxonomy

The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.