The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED
The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
页面 GRX-TAX版本 2026 基线版证据截止 2026-09-30数值 尚未发布方法 v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
危害
01危害标准
危害领域
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
大气与天气atmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
水系统water |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
冰与雪cryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
固体地球geo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
空间与近地space |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
陆地与生态系统eco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
行星边界与地球系统临界点planet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
污染与有害物质poll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
健康与生物安全health |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
建成系统infra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
信息与网络物理系统cyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
前沿与指数型技术tech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
社会、冲突与经济soc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
系统性与复合事件sys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
02危害标准
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
水water |
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能源energy |
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粮食food |
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卫生health |
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生物多样性biodiversity |
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关键基础设施critical-infrastructure |
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Global risksglobal-risks |
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Nexusnexus |
03危害标准
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
巨灾风险catastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
04指标标准
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
金融体系FIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
气候CLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
卫生HLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
粮食系统FOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
水WAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
能源ENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
基础设施INF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
网络与数字CYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
治理与机构GOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
冲突与安全CON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
环境与生物多样性ENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
05指标标准
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
危害HAZARD |
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风险暴露EXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
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Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
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响应RESPONSE |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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背景CONTEXT |
06Facet
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
危害HAZARD |
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风险暴露EXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD |
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风险RISK |
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CapacityCAPACITY |
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响应RESPONSE |
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FinancingFINANCING |
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结果OUTCOME |
07nrm
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
通用数学与统计universal-mathematics-statistics |
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危害科学hazard-science |
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风险暴露与资产情报exposure-asset-intelligence |
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脆弱性、脆弱状态与韧性vulnerability-fragility-resilience |
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后果与损失consequence-loss |
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巨灾风险catastrophe-risk |
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网络、依存关系与系统性风险network-dependency-systemic |
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金融风险financial-risk |
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保险与再保险insurance-reinsurance |
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市场、贸易与供应链market-trade-supply-chain |
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Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
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政策、监管与治理policy-regulation-governance |
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水风险water-risk |
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粮食、农业和渔业food-agriculture-fisheries |
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能源风险energy-risk |
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卫生与流行病学health-epidemiology |
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气候、自然与生物多样性climate-nature-biodiversity |
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Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
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网络、人工智能与前沿技术cyber-ai-frontier-tech |
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地缘政治、冲突与人类安全geopolitical-conflict-human-security |
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项目、计划和基础设施投资project-programme-infrastructure-investment |
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风险数据risk-data |
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科学保证scientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
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NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
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NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
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NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
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NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
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NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
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NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
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NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
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NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
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NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
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NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
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NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
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NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
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NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
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NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
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NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
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NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
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NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
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NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
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NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
09Facet
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus |
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Banking Nexusbanking-nexus |
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Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
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Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
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Capital Nexuscapital-nexus |
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Development Finance Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
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Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
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Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
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Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
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Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus |
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Food Nexusfood-nexus |
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Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus |
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Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus |
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Health Nexushealth-nexus |
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Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus |
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Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
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Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus |
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Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
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Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
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Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
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Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
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Nexus Reportsnexus-reports |
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Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus |
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Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
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Research Nexusresearch-nexus |
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Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
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Water Nexuswater-nexus |
10Facet
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | 标准 |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
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海洋maritime |
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Railrail |
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Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
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Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
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Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
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Cities urbancities-urban |
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Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
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Data centresdata-centers |
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半导体semiconductors |
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Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
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Space satellitespace-satellite |
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Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
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Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
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Chemicals processchemicals-process |
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Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
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Forests landforests-land |
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Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
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Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
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Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
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Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
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Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
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Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
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Education workforceeducation-workforce |
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Digital governmentdigital-government |
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Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
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Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
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Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
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Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
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Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
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Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
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Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
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Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
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Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
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Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
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关键基础设施critical-infrastructure |
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Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
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Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
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Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
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Islands small statesislands-small-states |
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Arctic polararctic-polar |
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Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
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Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
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Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
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Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
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Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
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Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
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Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
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Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
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Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.