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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
页面 GRX-GOV版本 2026 基线版证据截止 2026-09-30数值 尚未发布方法 v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
草案已计算受证据约束已审查已批准发布已发布已更正已被取代
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01管理方

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

证据与方法

GCRI Canada

证据、方法、风险本体、数据规范、可验证记录和更正。

领导力与年度项目

全球风险论坛（The Global Risks Forum）

领导力、机构对话以及 Nexus Universe 的管理。记录项目关口 G0 至 G7。

金融准备

全球风险联盟（The Global Risks Alliance）

金融、保险和发展准备。风险证据成为尽职调查材料，绝不构成批准或交易。

02评审

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

草案已计算受证据约束已审查已批准发布已发布已更正已被取代
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

流程图
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04指标
05指数
06指数
07指数
08不确定性
09不确定性
10评审
11评审
12发布

100%
时间线
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX 运行服务PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  2. 许可门槛

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    许可登记册
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX 运行服务指标标准
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX 运行服务指标标准
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX 运行服务经测试的模型内核
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    二十个领域指数
    NXS-GRX 运行服务经测试的模型内核
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    依赖网络经测试的模型内核
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    蒙特卡罗引擎
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    蒙特卡罗引擎
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    经测试的模型内核
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    矢量瓦片Zenodo 存缴
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX 运行服务 Cut
Withheld counts 许可门槛 许可登记册 Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX 运行服务 Ingest
IND values 指标 NXS-GRX 运行服务 指标
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
IDX values 领域指数 NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws 蒙特卡罗引擎 不确定性
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol 蒙特卡罗引擎 不确定性
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer 评审
Release decision Steward review 管理方 评审
版本 Profiles and series Foundry 发布
瓦片 Tiles and bulk files Foundry 发布
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry 发布
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04诚信

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

答辩权

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05边界

信息，而非权威

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

面积 Principle How the index meets it 状态
治理 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
治理 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
治理 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
治理 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
治理 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
问责 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
问责 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
问责 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
问责 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07政策

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

投诉

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

变更

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

使用

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

人工智能使用

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

表单

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01填写标有（必填）的字段为必填项；其余内容有助于审核。
  2. 02编号您会在屏幕上获得一个编号；记录保存在本网站的 WordPress 数据库中。
  3. 03评审结果会公开记录。联系方式保留在本网站，绝不会公开或共享。
Form · grx-reply

此表单启用后将在此处打开。在此之前，请通过以下渠道提交： Nexus Reports 网关.

报告错误

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.