Stewarded in the open
Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.
Three independent stewards
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
GCRI Canada
Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.
Global Risks Forum
Leadership, institutional dialogue and the stewardship of Nexus Universe. It records the programme gates G0 to G7.
Global Risks Alliance
Finance, insurance and development readiness. Risk evidence becomes diligence material, never an approval or a transaction.
Review and release
Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.
Review gates in the release workflow
The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.
Edition release: review gates
End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.
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Evidence cut frozenCut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hourInput vintages pinnedNXS-GRX run servicePostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
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Licence gateIngest · Licence register · 1 hourAdmitted, isolated or withheldLicence register
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Harmonise matrix · 150 sourcesIngest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hoursUnits, areas, timeNXS-GRX run serviceindicator standard
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Indicators matrix · 451 × 195Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hoursDerivations, flagged imputationNXS-GRX run serviceindicator standard
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Sub-indices matrix · 86Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hourNormalise, weight, aggregateNXS-GRX run serviceTested model kernels
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Domain indices matrix · 20Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hourTwenty domain indicesNXS-GRX run serviceTested model kernels
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Coupling scoreIndices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hoursDebtRank, clearing, cascadesDependency networkTested model kernels
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1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hoursWeights, normalisation, aggregation, imputationMonte Carlo engine
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Intervals, classes, SobolUncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour90% intervals · Class probabilities · SensitivityMonte Carlo engine
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Statistical audit approvalReview · Independent reviewer · 10 daysCoherence, stabilityTested model kernels
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Steward review approvalReview · Stewards · 10 daysMethod, evidence, public-safe screenPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
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Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59Publish · Foundry · 2 hoursPublished with intervalsPublic cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
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Tiles and bulk filesPublish · Foundry · 2 hoursISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOIVector tilesZenodo deposit
| Artefact | Job | Who | Hatua |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cut record | Evidence cut frozen | NXS-GRX run service | Cut |
| Withheld counts | Licence gate | Licence register | Ingest |
| HAR series | Harmonise | NXS-GRX run service | Ingest |
| IND values | Viashiria | NXS-GRX run service | Viashiria |
| SUB values | Sub-indices | NXS-GRX run service | Vielezo |
| IDX values | Vielezo vya nyanja | NXS-GRX run service | Vielezo |
| S per country | Coupling score | NXS-GRX run service | Vielezo |
| Draw set with seed | 1,000 Monte Carlo draws | Monte Carlo engine | Uncertainty |
| Uncertainty report | Intervals, classes, Sobol | Monte Carlo engine | Uncertainty |
| Audit note | Statistical audit | Independent reviewer | Review |
| Release decision | Steward review | Stewards | Review |
| Edition | Profiles and series | Foundry | Chapisha |
| Tiles | Tiles and bulk files | Foundry | Chapisha |
| DOI | Tiles and bulk files | Foundry | Chapisha |
Integrity rules
Declared interests
Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.
No outside edits
No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.
Haki ya kujibu
Country right of reply and a public correction log.
Do no harm
Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.
Replication
Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.
Information, not authority
NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.
Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily
The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.
| Area | Principle | How the index meets it | State |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utawala | 1 · Overall responsibility | The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. | In place |
| Utawala | 2 · Oversight of third parties | Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. | In place |
| Utawala | 3 · Conflicts of interest | Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. | Designed |
| Utawala | 4 · Control framework | Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. | In place |
| Utawala | 5 · Internal oversight | Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. | Stewards to decide |
| Quality of the index | 6 · Design | The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. | In place |
| Quality of the index | 7 · Data sufficiency | Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. | In place |
| Quality of the index | 8 · Hierarchy of inputs | Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. | In place |
| Quality of the index | 9 · Transparency of determinations | Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. | In place |
| Quality of the index | 10 · Periodic review | An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. | Designed |
| Quality of the method | 11 · Content of the method | The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. | In place |
| Quality of the method | 12 · Changes to the method | Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. | Designed |
| Quality of the method | 13 · Transition and cessation | A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. | Designed |
| Quality of the method | 14 · Contributor code of conduct | Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. | In place |
| Quality of the method | 15 · Controls over data collection | Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. | In place |
| Uwajibikaji | 16 · Complaints | Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. | In place |
| Uwajibikaji | 17 · Audits | External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. | Stewards to decide |
| Uwajibikaji | 18 · Audit trail | Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. | In place |
| Uwajibikaji | 19 · Cooperation with authorities | The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. | In place |
Policies a user of the index can rely on
Conflicts of interest
Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.
Complaints and right of reply
Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.
Revisions and restatements
Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.
Method changes
A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.
Transition and cessation
An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.
Use in decisions and contracts
The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.
Matumizi ya akili bandia
AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.
Right of reply and correction request
A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.
- 01Fill inFields marked (required) are needed; everything else helps the review.
- 02ReferenceYou get a reference on screen; the record is kept in this site’s WordPress database.
- 03ReviewThe outcome is recorded in public. Contact details stay on this site and are never published or shared.
This form opens here once it is switched on. Until then, send it through the Nexus Reports gateway.
Report an error
Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.
Hali
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
NXS-GRX si nini
NXS-GRX ni taarifa ya utafiti na uchambuzi wa hatari. Si daraja la mikopo wala la ESG na haitumii kipimo chochote cha daraja, si kigezo cha vyombo vya fedha, si takwimu rasmi, si onyo la dharura wala uainishaji rasmi, na si ushauri. Haipaswi kutumiwa kutathmini watu binafsi. Madaraja ya hatari ni mikanda kwenye kipimo kilichochapishwa, kamwe si mpangilio wa nchi au watu.
Taasisi na vyanzo
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.