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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Pagina GRX-GOVEdizione Edizione di riferimento 2026Chiusura delle evidenze 2026-09-30Valori non ancora pubblicatiMetodo v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
BozzaCalcolatoVincolato alle evidenzeRevisionatoApprovato per il rilascioPubblicatoCorrettoSostituito
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Custodi

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Evidenze e metodi

GCRI Canada

Evidenze, metodi, ontologia del rischio, disciplina dei dati, registri verificabili e correzione.

Leadership e il programma annuale

Il Global Risks Forum

Leadership, dialogo istituzionale e la cura di Nexus Universe. Registra i passaggi di controllo del programma da G0 a G7.

Preparazione finanziaria

La Global Risks Alliance

Preparazione per finanza, assicurazione e sviluppo. Le evidenze di rischio diventano materiale di due diligence, mai un’approvazione o una transazione.

02Valutazione

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

BozzaCalcolatoVincolato alle evidenzeRevisionatoApprovato per il rilascioPubblicatoCorrettoSostituito
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafo
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicatori
05Indici
06Indici
07Indici
08Incertezza
09Incertezza
10Valutazione
11Valutazione
12Pubblicare

100%
Cronologia
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Passaggi
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXRegistro PostgreSQL (sicurezza a livello di riga)
  2. Controllo di licenza

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registro delle licenze
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXstandard degli indicatori
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXstandard degli indicatori
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXKernel di modello testati
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Venti indici di dominio
    Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRXKernel di modello testati
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Rete di dipendenzeKernel di modello testati
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motore Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motore Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Kernel di modello testati
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registro PostgreSQL (sicurezza a livello di riga)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Tile vettorialiDeposito su Zenodo
Artefatti
Artefatto Attività Chi Fase
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Controllo di licenza Registro delle licenze Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicatori Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indicatori
SUB values Sub-indices Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
IDX values Indici di dominio Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
S per country Coupling score Servizio di esecuzione NXS-GRX Indici
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motore Monte Carlo Incertezza
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motore Monte Carlo Incertezza
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Valutazione
Release decision Steward review Custodi Valutazione
Edizione Profiles and series Foundry Pubblicare
Tile Tiles and bulk files Foundry Pubblicare
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Pubblicare
CompletatoIn corsoIn attesa di approvazioneIn codaGate di approvazioneAttività MatrixSei qui
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Integrità

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Diritto di replica

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Confini

Informazione, non autorità

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Superficie Principle How the index meets it Stato
Governance 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Governance 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Governance 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Governance 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Governance 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Responsabilità 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Responsabilità 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Responsabilità 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Responsabilità 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Politiche

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Reclami

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Modifiche

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Utilizzare

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Uso dell'IA

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Modulo

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01CompilaI campi contrassegnati (obbligatorio) sono necessari; tutto il resto aiuta la valutazione.
  2. 02RiferimentoRicevi un riferimento sullo schermo; la registrazione è conservata nel database WordPress di questo sito.
  3. 03ValutazioneL'esito è registrato pubblicamente. I recapiti restano su questo sito e non vengono mai pubblicati né condivisi.
Form · grx-reply

Questo modulo si aprirà qui non appena sarà attivato. Fino ad allora, invialo tramite il gateway Nexus Reports.

Segnala un errore

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.