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The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Rûpel GRX-GOVÇap Çapa Bingehîn 2026Girtina delîlan 2026-09-30Nirx hê nehatiye weşandinRêbaz v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
DraftComputedEvidence boundReviewedApproved for releasePublishedCorrectedSuperseded
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Parêzvan

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Delîl û rêbaz

GCRI Canada

Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.

Leadership and the annual programme

The Global Risks Forum

Leadership, institutional dialogue and the stewardship of Nexus Universe. It records the programme gates G0 to G7.

Amadebûna darayî

The Global Risks Alliance

Finance, insurance and development readiness. Risk evidence becomes diligence material, never an approval or a transaction.

02Nirxandin

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

DraftComputedEvidence boundReviewedApproved for releasePublishedCorrectedSuperseded
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafîk
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Nîşander
05Îndeks
06Îndeks
07Îndeks
08Nediyarî
09Nediyarî
10Nirxandin
11Nirxandin
12Biweşîne

100%
Rêzkirina demê
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Gav
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRXDefterê PostgreSQL (ewlehiya li ser asta rêzê)
  2. Deriyê lîsansê

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Tomara lîsansan
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRXstandarda nîşanderan
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRXstandarda nîşanderan
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRXKernelên modelê yên ceribandî
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Twenty domain indices
    Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRXKernelên modelê yên ceribandî
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Dependency networkTested model kernels
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motora Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motora Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Kernelên modelê yên ceribandî
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Defterê PostgreSQL (ewlehiya li ser asta rêzê)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
Tomar
Berhem Kar Kî Qonax
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Deriyê lîsansê Tomara lîsansan Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Nîşander Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Nîşander
SUB values Sub-indices Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Îndeks
IDX values Îndeksên waran Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Îndeks
S per country Coupling score Xizmeta xebitandinê ya NXS-GRX Îndeks
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motora Monte Carlo Nediyarî
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motora Monte Carlo Nediyarî
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Nirxandin
Release decision Steward review Parêzvan Nirxandin
Çap Profiles and series Foundry Biweşîne
Tiles Tiles and bulk files Foundry Biweşîne
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Biweşîne
QediyaDi pêvajoyê deLi benda pejirandinêDi rêzê deDeriyê pejirandinêKarê matrîksêHûn li vir in
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Yekparebûn

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Mafê bersivdanê

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Sînor

Information, not authority

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Herêm Principle How the index meets it Rewş
Rêveberî 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Rêveberî 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Rêveberî 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Rêveberî 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Rêveberî 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Berpirsiyarî 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Berpirsiyarî 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Berpirsiyarî 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Berpirsiyarî 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Siyaset

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Complaints

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Guhertin

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Bikaranîn

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Bikaranîna AI

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Form

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01Fill inFields marked (required) are needed; everything else helps the review.
  2. 02ReferenceYou get a reference on screen; the record is kept in this site’s WordPress database.
  3. 03ReviewThe outcome is recorded in public. Contact details stay on this site and are never published or shared.
Form · grx-reply

This form opens here once it is switched on. Until then, send it through the Nexus Reports gateway.

Şaşiyekê rapor bikin

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Rewş

Rêbaz, avahî û pênaseyên The Global Risks Index pêşnivîseke xebatê ya amadekar in (2026), ji bo nirxandin û şîroveyê tên belavkirin, ne ji bo bicîhanînê. Heta ku çapek ji birrîneke delîlan a birêvebirî neyê weşandin, tu nirx xuya nabe; piştre nirx navber, çîn, çavkanî û rêya xwe ya rastkirinê bi xwe re tînin. Simulator rêbazên weşandî li ser hejmarên ku tu hildibijêrî dixebitînin û qet nirxeke NXS-GRX nîşan nadin.

NXS-GRX çi nîne

NXS-GRX agahiya lêkolîn û analîza xetereyê ye. Ew ne nirxandina krediyê an ESG ye û tu pîvaneke pileyan bi kar nayîne, ne pîvana referansê ya amûrên darayî ye, ne statîstîkên fermî ye, ne hişyariya awarte an dabeşkirina fermî ye, û ne şîret e. Divê ji bo nirxandina kesên xwezayî neyê bikaranîn. Çînên xetereyê bendên li ser pîvaneke weşandî ne, qet ne rêzkirina welatan an mirovan in.

Sazî û çavkanî

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her nirx navê çavkaniyên xwe bi xwe re tîne, ku lîsansên xwe diparêzin. Navên derveyî tenê ji bo hevxebitînê tên gotin. Nivîsên ku Nexus nivîsandine dema weşanê ji bo CC BY 4.0 tên armanckirin.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.