Skip to content

Foundry

The Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Sayfa GRX-GOVBaskı 2026 Temel SürümüKanıt kapanışı 2026-09-30Değerler henüz yayımlanmadıYöntem v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
TaslakHesaplanmışKanıta bağlıİncelendiYayım için onaylandıYayımlandıDüzeltildiYerini başkası aldı
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Yöneticiler

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Kanıt ve yöntemler

GCRI Canada

Kanıt, yöntemler, risk ontolojisi, veri disiplini, doğrulanabilir kayıtlar ve düzeltme.

Liderlik ve yıllık program

Global Risks Forum

Liderlik, kurumsal diyalog ve Nexus Universe’ün sorumlu yönetimi. G0 ile G7 arasındaki program kapılarını kaydeder.

Finansal hazırlık

Global Risks Alliance

Finans, sigorta ve kalkınma hazırlığı. Risk kanıtı inceleme materyaline dönüşür, asla bir onay veya işlem değildir.

02İnceleme

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

TaslakHesaplanmışKanıta bağlıİncelendiYayım için onaylandıYayımlandıDüzeltildiYerini başkası aldı
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafik
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Göstergeler
05Endeksler
06Endeksler
07Endeksler
08Belirsizlik
09Belirsizlik
10İnceleme
11İnceleme
12Yayımlayın

100%
Zaman çizelgesi
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Adımlar
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmetiPostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  2. Lisans kapısı

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Lisans sicili
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmetigösterge standardı
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmetigösterge standardı
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmetiTest edilmiş model çekirdekleri
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Yirmi alan endeksi
    NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmetiTest edilmiş model çekirdekleri
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Bağımlılık ağıTest edilmiş model çekirdekleri
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Monte Carlo motoru
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Monte Carlo motoru
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Test edilmiş model çekirdekleri
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL defteri (satır düzeyinde güvenlik)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
Çıktılar
Çıktı İş Kim Aşama
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Cut
Withheld counts Lisans kapısı Lisans sicili Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Ingest
IND values Göstergeler NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Göstergeler
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Endeksler
IDX values Alan endeksleri NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Endeksler
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX çalıştırma hizmeti Endeksler
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Monte Carlo motoru Belirsizlik
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Monte Carlo motoru Belirsizlik
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer İnceleme
Release decision Steward review Yöneticiler İnceleme
Baskı Profiles and series Foundry Yayımlayın
Döşemeler Tiles and bulk files Foundry Yayımlayın
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Yayımlayın
TamamlandıSürüyorOnay bekleniyorSıradaOnay kontrol noktasıMatris işiBuradasınız
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Dürüstlük

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Yanıt hakkı

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Sınırlar

Bilgi, yetki değil

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Alan Principle How the index meets it Statü
Yönetişim 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Yönetişim 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Yönetişim 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Yönetişim 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Yönetişim 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Hesap verebilirlik 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Hesap verebilirlik 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Hesap verebilirlik 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Hesap verebilirlik 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Politikalar

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Şikâyetler

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Değişiklikler

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Kullan

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Yapay zekâ kullanımı

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Hukuki yapı

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01Doldurun(zorunlu) olarak işaretlenen alanlar gereklidir; geri kalan her şey incelemeye yardımcı olur.
  2. 02BaşvuruEkranda bir başvuru numarası alırsınız; kayıt bu sitenin WordPress veritabanında tutulur.
  3. 03İncelemeSonuç kamuya açık olarak kaydedilir. İletişim bilgileri bu sitede kalır ve asla yayımlanmaz ya da paylaşılmaz.
Form · grx-reply

Bu form etkinleştirildiğinde burada açılacak. O zamana kadar şu kanalla gönderin: Nexus Reports ağ geçidi.

Bir hata bildirin

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Durum

The Global Risks Index’in metodolojisi, yapısı ve tanımları, uygulama için değil, inceleme ve yorum için dolaşıma sunulmuş hazırlık niteliğinde bir çalışma taslağıdır (2026). Bir sürüm yönetilen bir kanıt kesitinden yayımlanana kadar hiçbir değer görünmez; değerler o zaman aralıkları, sınıfları, kaynakları ve düzeltme yollarını taşır. Simülatörler yayımlanan yöntemleri sizin seçtiğiniz sayılarla çalıştırır ve asla bir NXS-GRX değeri göstermez.

NXS-GRX ne değildir

NXS-GRX bir araştırma ve risk analitiği bilgisidir. Kredi ya da ESG derecelendirmesi değildir ve derecelendirme ölçeği kullanmaz; finansal araçlar için gösterge, resmî istatistik, acil durum uyarısı ya da resmî sınıflandırma ve tavsiye değildir. Gerçek kişileri değerlendirmek için kullanılmamalıdır. Risk sınıfları yayımlanmış bir ölçek üzerindeki bantlardır, asla ülkelerin ya da kişilerin sıralaması değildir.

Kurumlar ve kaynaklar

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Her değer, kendi lisanslarını koruyan kaynaklarının atfını taşır. Harici adlara yalnızca birlikte çalışabilirlik amacıyla atıf yapılır. Nexus tarafından yazılan metinlerin yayımlandığında CC BY 4.0 kapsamında olması amaçlanmaktadır.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.