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El Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Página GRX-GOVEdición Edición de referencia 2026Cierre de evidencia 2026-09-30Valores aún no publicadosMétodo v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
BorradorCalculadoLigado a la evidenciaRevisadoAprobado para su publicaciónPublicadoCorregidoSustituido
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Custodios

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Evidencia y métodos

GCRI Canada

Evidencia, métodos, ontología del riesgo, disciplina de datos, registros verificables y corrección.

Liderazgo y programa anual

El Global Risks Forum

Liderazgo, diálogo institucional y custodia de Nexus Universe. Registra los puntos de control del programa G0 a G7.

Preparación financiera

La Global Risks Alliance

Preparación financiera, aseguradora y de desarrollo. La evidencia de riesgo se convierte en material de diligencia, nunca en una aprobación ni en una transacción.

02Revisión

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

BorradorCalculadoLigado a la evidenciaRevisadoAprobado para su publicaciónPublicadoCorregidoSustituido
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Grafo
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicadores
05Índices
06Índices
07Índices
08Incertidumbre
09Incertidumbre
10Revisión
11Revisión
12Publicar

100%
Cronología
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Pasos
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXRegistro PostgreSQL (seguridad a nivel de fila)
  2. Control de licencias

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registro de licencias
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXestándar de indicadores
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXestándar de indicadores
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos probados
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Veinte índices temáticos
    Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRXNúcleos de modelos probados
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Red de dependenciasNúcleos de modelos probados
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Motor Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Motor Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Núcleos de modelos probados
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registro PostgreSQL (seguridad a nivel de fila)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Teselas vectorialesDepósito en Zenodo
Artefactos
Producto Tarea Quién Fase
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Control de licencias Registro de licencias Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicadores Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Indicadores
SUB values Sub-indices Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
IDX values Índices de dominio Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
S per country Coupling score Servicio de ejecución NXS-GRX Índices
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Motor Monte Carlo Incertidumbre
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Motor Monte Carlo Incertidumbre
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Revisión
Release decision Steward review Custodios Revisión
Edición Profiles and series Foundry Publicar
Teselas Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publicar
CompletadoEn cursoEn espera de aprobaciónEn colaPunto de control de aprobaciónTarea de la matrizUsted está aquí
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Integridad

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Derecho de réplica

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Límites

Información, no autoridad

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Superficie Principle How the index meets it Estado
Gobernanza 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Gobernanza 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Gobernanza 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Gobernanza 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Gobernanza 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Rendición de cuentas 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Rendición de cuentas 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Rendición de cuentas 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Rendición de cuentas 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Políticas

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Quejas

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Cambios

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Uso

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Uso de la IA

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Formulario

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01RellenarLos campos marcados (obligatorio) son necesarios; todo lo demás facilita la revisión.
  2. 02ReferenciaRecibe una referencia en pantalla; el registro se guarda en la base de datos WordPress de este sitio.
  3. 03RevisiónEl resultado se registra públicamente. Los datos de contacto permanecen en este sitio y nunca se publican ni se comparten.
Form · grx-reply

Este formulario se abrirá aquí cuando se active. Mientras tanto, envíelo a través de la pasarela Nexus Reports.

Comunicar un error

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Estado

La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.

Lo que NXS-GRX no es

NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.

Instituciones y fuentes

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.