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⁨Foundry⁩

المؤشر العالمي للمخاطر (⁨Global Risks Index⁩)

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
الصفحة GRX-GOVالطبعة إصدار خط الأساس 2026إقفال الأدلة 2026-09-30القيم لم تُنشر بعدالمنهجية v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
مسودةمحسوبمقيّد بالأدلةمُراجَعمعتمد للإصدارمنشورمُصوَّبمُستبدَل
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01الأمناء

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

الأدلة والأساليب

⁨GCRI Canada⁩

الأدلة، والطرق، وأنطولوجيا المخاطر، وانضباط البيانات، والسجلات القابلة للتحقق، والتصويب.

القيادة والبرنامج السنوي

المنتدى العالمي للمخاطر (Global Risks Forum)

القيادة، والحوار المؤسسي، والإشراف على Nexus Universe. ويسجّل بوابات البرنامج من G0 إلى G7.

الجاهزية المالية

التحالف العالمي للمخاطر (Global Risks Alliance)

جاهزية التمويل والتأمين والتنمية. تصبح أدلة المخاطر مادة للعناية الواجبة، لا موافقة ولا معاملة أبدًا.

02المراجعة

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

مسودةمحسوبمقيّد بالأدلةمُراجَعمعتمد للإصدارمنشورمُصوَّبمُستبدَل
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

الرسم البياني
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04المؤشرات الفرعية
05المؤشرات
06المؤشرات
07المؤشرات
08عدم اليقين
09عدم اليقين
10المراجعة
11المراجعة
12النشر

100%
الخط الزمني
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

الخطوات
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRXسجل PostgreSQL (أمان على مستوى الصفوف)
  2. بوابة الترخيص

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    سجل التراخيص
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRXمعيار المؤشرات
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRXمعيار المؤشرات
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRXنوى نماذج مختبرة
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    عشرون مؤشر مجال
    خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRXنوى نماذج مختبرة
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    شبكة الاعتمادنوى نماذج مختبرة
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    محرك مونت كارلو
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    محرك مونت كارلو
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    نوى نماذج مختبرة
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    سجل PostgreSQL (أمان على مستوى الصفوف)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Vector tilesZenodo deposit
المخرجات
السجل الناتج المهمة من المرحلة
Cut record Evidence cut frozen خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts بوابة الترخيص سجل التراخيص Ingest
HAR series Harmonise خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values المؤشرات الفرعية خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX المؤشرات الفرعية
SUB values Sub-indices خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX المؤشرات
IDX values مؤشرات المجالات خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX المؤشرات
S per country Coupling score خدمة تشغيل NXS-GRX المؤشرات
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws محرك مونت كارلو عدم اليقين
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol محرك مونت كارلو عدم اليقين
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer المراجعة
Release decision Steward review الأمناء المراجعة
الطبعة Profiles and series ⁨Foundry⁩ النشر
البلاطات Tiles and bulk files ⁨Foundry⁩ النشر
DOI Tiles and bulk files ⁨Foundry⁩ النشر
مكتملقيد التنفيذفي انتظار الموافقةفي الانتظاربوابة الموافقةمهمة المصفوفةأنت هنا
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04النزاهة

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

حق الرد

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05الحدود

معلومات، لا سلطة

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

المساحة Principle How the index meets it الحالة
الحوكمة 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
الحوكمة 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
الحوكمة 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
الحوكمة 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
الحوكمة 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
المساءلة 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
المساءلة 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
المساءلة 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
المساءلة 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07السياسات

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

الشكاوى

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

التغييرات

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

الاستخدام

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

استخدام الذكاء الاصطناعي

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

الشكل القانوني

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01املأ الاستمارةالحقول المعلَّمة (مطلوب) لازمة؛ وكل ما عداها يساعد في المراجعة.
  2. 02المرجعتحصلون على رقم مرجعي على الشاشة؛ ويُحفظ السجل في قاعدة بيانات WordPress الخاصة بهذا الموقع.
  3. 03المراجعةتُسجَّل النتيجة علنًا. وتبقى بيانات الاتصال في هذا الموقع ولا تُنشر ولا تُشارك أبدًا.
Form · grx-reply

سيُفتح هذا النموذج هنا فور تفعيله. وحتى ذلك الحين، أرسلوه عبر بوابة Nexus Reports.

أبلغ عن خطأ

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

الحالة

منهجية The Global Risks Index وبنيته وتعاريفه مسودة عمل تحضيرية (2026)، تُعمَّم للمراجعة والتعليق لا للتطبيق. ولا تظهر أي قيمة إلى أن يصدر إصدار من مقطع أدلة خاضع للحوكمة؛ وعندئذ تحمل القيم فترات وفئات ومصادر ومسار تصويبها. وتُطبِّق أدوات المحاكاة المنهجيات المنشورة على أرقام تختارها أنت، ولا تعرض أبدًا أي قيمة من NXS-GRX.

ما ليس عليه NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX معلومات بحثية وتحليلية للمخاطر. وهو ليس تصنيفًا ائتمانيًا ولا تصنيفًا بيئيًا واجتماعيًا وحوكميًا ولا يستخدم أي مقياس تصنيف، وليس مؤشرًا مرجعيًا للأدوات المالية، ولا إحصاءً رسميًا، ولا إنذارًا طارئًا أو تصنيفًا رسميًا، ولا مشورة. ولا يجوز استخدامه لتقييم الأشخاص الطبيعيين. فئات المخاطر نطاقات على مقياس منشور، وليست أبدًا ترتيبًا للبلدان أو الأشخاص.

المؤسسات والمصادر

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

تحمل كل قيمة إسناد مصادرها، التي تحتفظ بتراخيصها الخاصة. ولا يُستشهد بالأسماء الخارجية إلا لأغراض قابلية التشغيل البيني. ويُعتزم إصدار النصوص التي تؤلفها Nexus بموجب ترخيص CC BY 4.0 عند نشرها.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.