The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED
The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
الصفحة GRX-TAXالطبعة إصدار خط الأساس 2026إقفال الأدلة 2026-09-30القيم لم تُنشر بعدالمنهجية v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
مخاطر
مجالات المخاطر
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
الغلاف الجوي والطقسatmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
النظم المائيةwater |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
الجليد والثلجcryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
الأرض الصلبةgeo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
الفضاء ومحيط الأرض القريبspace |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
اليابسة والنظم البيئيةeco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
الحدود الكوكبية ونقاط التحول في نظام الأرضplanet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
التلوث والمواد الخطرةpoll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
الصحة والأمن البيولوجيhealth |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
النظم المبنيةinfra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
نظم المعلومات والنظم السيبرانية الماديةcyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
التكنولوجيا الرائدة والأسيةtech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
المجتمع والنزاعات والاقتصادsoc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
الأحداث النظمية والمركبةsys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
02معيار المخاطر الطبيعية
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
المياهwater |
||
الطاقةenergy |
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الغذاءfood |
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الصحةhealth |
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التنوع البيولوجيbiodiversity |
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البنية التحتية الحيويةcritical-infrastructure |
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Global risksglobal-risks |
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Nexusnexus |
03معيار المخاطر الطبيعية
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
المخاطر الكارثيةcatastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
النظام الماليFIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
المناخCLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
الصحةHLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
النظم الغذائيةFOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
المياهWAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
الطاقةENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
البنية التحتيةINF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
المجال السيبراني والرقميCYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
الحوكمة والمؤسساتGOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
النزاعات والأمنCON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
البيئة والتنوع البيولوجيENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
05Indicator Standard
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
الخطرHAZARD |
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التعرضEXPOSURE |
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قابلية التأثرVULNERABILITY |
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Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
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القدرة التكيفيةADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
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الاستجابةRESPONSE |
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الأثرIMPACT |
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السياقCONTEXT |
06Facet
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
الخطرHAZARD |
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التعرضEXPOSURE |
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قابلية التأثرVULNERABILITY |
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الأثرIMPACT |
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الاحتمالLIKELIHOOD |
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المخاطرRISK |
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القدرةCAPACITY |
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الاستجابةRESPONSE |
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FinancingFINANCING |
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النتيجةOUTCOME |
07nrm
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
الرياضيات والإحصاء الشاملةuniversal-mathematics-statistics |
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علم المخاطرhazard-science |
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معلومات التعرّض والأصولexposure-asset-intelligence |
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قابلية التأثر والهشاشة والصمودvulnerability-fragility-resilience |
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العواقب والخسائرconsequence-loss |
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مخاطر الكوارث الكبرىcatastrophe-risk |
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الشبكات والاعتماد والمخاطر النظميةnetwork-dependency-systemic |
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المخاطر الماليةfinancial-risk |
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التأمين وإعادة التأمينinsurance-reinsurance |
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الأسواق والتجارة وسلاسل الإمدادmarket-trade-supply-chain |
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Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
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السياسات والتنظيم والحوكمةpolicy-regulation-governance |
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مخاطر المياهwater-risk |
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الغذاء والزراعة ومصايد الأسماكfood-agriculture-fisheries |
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مخاطر الطاقةenergy-risk |
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الصحة وعلم الأوبئةhealth-epidemiology |
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المناخ والطبيعة والتنوع البيولوجيclimate-nature-biodiversity |
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Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
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الأمن السيبراني والذكاء الاصطناعي (AI) والتقنيات الرائدةcyber-ai-frontier-tech |
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الجغرافيا السياسية والنزاع والأمن البشريgeopolitical-conflict-human-security |
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المشاريع والبرامج والاستثمار في البنية التحتيةproject-programme-infrastructure-investment |
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بيانات المخاطرrisk-data |
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الضمان العلميscientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
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NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
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NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
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NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
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NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
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NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
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NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
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NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
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NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
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NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
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NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
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NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
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NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
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NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
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NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
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NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
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NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
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NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
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NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
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NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
09Facet
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus |
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Banking Nexusbanking-nexus |
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Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
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Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
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Capital Nexuscapital-nexus |
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Development Finance Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
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Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
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Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
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Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
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Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus |
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Food Nexusfood-nexus |
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Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus |
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Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus |
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Health Nexushealth-nexus |
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Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus |
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Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
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Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus |
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Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
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Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
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Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
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Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
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Nexus Reportsnexus-reports |
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Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus |
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Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
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Research Nexusresearch-nexus |
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Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
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Water Nexuswater-nexus |
10Facet
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | المعايير |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
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البحريmaritime |
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المسارrail |
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Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
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Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
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Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
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Cities urbancities-urban |
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Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
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Data centresdata-centers |
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أشباه الموصلاتsemiconductors |
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Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
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Space satellitespace-satellite |
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Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
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Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
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Chemicals processchemicals-process |
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Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
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Forests landforests-land |
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Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
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Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
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Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
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Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
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Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
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Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
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Education workforceeducation-workforce |
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Digital governmentdigital-government |
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Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
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Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
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Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
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Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
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Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
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Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
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Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
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Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
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Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
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Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
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البنية التحتية الحيويةcritical-infrastructure |
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Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
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Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
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Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
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Islands small statesislands-small-states |
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Arctic polararctic-polar |
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Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
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Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
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Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
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Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
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Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
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Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
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Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
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Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
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Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
الحالة
منهجية The Global Risks Index وبنيته وتعاريفه مسودة عمل تحضيرية (2026)، تُعمَّم للمراجعة والتعليق لا للتطبيق. ولا تظهر أي قيمة إلى أن يصدر إصدار من مقطع أدلة خاضع للحوكمة؛ وعندئذ تحمل القيم فترات وفئات ومصادر ومسار تصويبها. وتُطبِّق أدوات المحاكاة المنهجيات المنشورة على أرقام تختارها أنت، ولا تعرض أبدًا أي قيمة من NXS-GRX.
ما ليس عليه NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX معلومات بحثية وتحليلية للمخاطر. وهو ليس تصنيفًا ائتمانيًا ولا تصنيفًا بيئيًا واجتماعيًا وحوكميًا ولا يستخدم أي مقياس تصنيف، وليس مؤشرًا مرجعيًا للأدوات المالية، ولا إحصاءً رسميًا، ولا إنذارًا طارئًا أو تصنيفًا رسميًا، ولا مشورة. ولا يجوز استخدامه لتقييم الأشخاص الطبيعيين. فئات المخاطر نطاقات على مقياس منشور، وليست أبدًا ترتيبًا للبلدان أو الأشخاص.
المؤسسات والمصادر
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
تحمل كل قيمة إسناد مصادرها، التي تحتفظ بتراخيصها الخاصة. ولا يُستشهد بالأسماء الخارجية إلا لأغراض قابلية التشغيل البيني. ويُعتزم إصدار النصوص التي تؤلفها Nexus بموجب ترخيص CC BY 4.0 عند نشرها.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.