The Global Risks Index · Nexus Standards · PROPOSED
The systemic risk taxonomy
Hazard domains, contexts, risk classes, indicator domains, risk components, the risk chain, method fabrics, the twenty systems, platforms, domain packs and programme pillars, each node linked to the standards that govern it.
Page GRX-TAXEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
11
facets
189
nodes
348
standards referenced
905
aléas
domaines d'aléas
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Atmosphère et météoatmo |
Hazards that live in the air column: storms, winds, precipitation extremes, thermal extremes, airborne particles and large-scale circulation anomalies. | |
Systèmes hydriqueswater |
Hazards of fresh and salt water: floods, water deficit, sea-level and wave hazards, ocean-state extremes and water-quality degradation. | |
Glace et neigecryo |
Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. | |
Terre solidegeo |
Hazards of the crust and ground: fault shaking, eruptions, slope failure, ground deformation and surface erosion. | |
Espace et environnement proche de la Terrespace |
Hazards that arrive from or act in space: solar-terrestrial storms, impacts and orbital debris. | |
Terres et écosystèmeseco |
Hazards of the living land and sea surface: vegetation fire, forest stress, land degradation, biodiversity loss and climate-state shifts. | |
Limites planétaires et points de bascule du système Terreplanet |
Hazards of the Earth system as a whole: transgression of the boundaries that keep the planet in a stable state, tipping of large climate, ice, ocean and biome components, carbon-cycle feedbacks, and rare deep-time and cosmic catastrophes. | |
Pollution et substances dangereusespoll |
Harmful substances in air, water, soil and food, toxic releases, ionising radiation and waste-containment failures. | |
Santé et biosécuritéhealth |
Disease and biological harm to people, animals and plants, grouped by transmission route, plus systemic biological risks, chronic and mental-health burdens, drug resistance and the failure of health systems. | |
Systèmes bâtisinfra |
Failure and accident hazards of structures, energy, water, digital and space-service networks, mobility, food systems, cities, ageing assets and industrial plants. | |
Systèmes d'information et cyberphysiquescyber |
Compromise or failure of information systems, including attacks that reach physical processes, identity and trust services, systemic cyber events and platforms everything else depends on. | |
Technologies de pointe et exponentiellestech |
Hazards that arise from frontier and exponential technologies: artificial intelligence, biotechnology, advanced materials, quantum, neurotechnology, autonomy, climate intervention, space systems, digital concentration, advanced manufacturing and energy-transition technology. | |
Société, conflits et économiesoc |
Violence, geopolitical and nuclear confrontation, conflict-induced harm, humanitarian crises, governance and cohesion failure, crime, demographic and labour transitions, macro-fiscal and financial-system shocks, and loss of heritage. | |
Événements systémiques et composéssys |
Events defined by interaction rather than by one process: supply-chain disruption, cascading failure, compound multi-hazard events and the structural fragility (concentration, coupling, polycrisis) that lets them spread. |
02Norme sur les aléas
Hazard Standard contexts (the six anchor streams, global risks and the nexus)
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Eauwater |
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Énergieenergy |
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Alimentationfood |
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Santéhealth |
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Biodiversitébiodiversity |
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Infrastructures critiquescritical-infrastructure |
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Global risksglobal-risks |
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Nexusnexus |
03Norme sur les aléas
risk classes (global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier technology)
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Global riskglobal |
A hazard is global when its occurrence, its consequences or its causal chain cross national borders and act at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can fully assess, prevent or absorb it. | |
Risque catastrophiquecatastrophic |
A hazard is catastrophic when at least one plausible scenario for it would cause global catastrophe: a very large loss of life, the crippling of global systems, or a civilisational setback that would take generations to recover from. | |
Existential riskexistential |
A hazard is existential when a plausible scenario for it would cause human extinction or a permanent, unrecoverable collapse of humanity’s long-term potential. | |
Emerging riskemerging |
A hazard is emerging when it is new, or is changing fast in nature, scale, likelihood or reach, and the evidence base for assessing it is still thin or immature. | |
Planetary riskplanetary |
A hazard is planetary when it concerns the stability of an Earth-system process: it pressures a planetary boundary, or it is, or directly drives, a tipping element whose change of state would alter the Earth system as a whole. | |
Exponential riskexponential |
A hazard is exponential when its growth or diffusion is self-accelerating, through compounding technology capability, contagion, network effects or reinforcing feedback, so that its scale can outrun linear planning and response. | |
Frontier technology riskfrontier-tech |
A hazard is frontier-tech when it arises from frontier or fast-advancing technology, through accident, misuse, unintended system behaviour or structural effects of its deployment. |
indicator domains
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
MacroeconomyMAC |
Output, prices, external position and monetary conditions of an economy. | |
Fiscal and public debtFIS |
Government revenue, spending, balances, debt stock, composition, financing needs and contingent liabilities. | |
Système financierFIN |
Soundness, depth and vulnerabilities of banks, non-banks, households, corporates and markets, including climate-related financial risk. | |
ClimatCLI |
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness. | |
Hazard and exposureHAZ |
Natural and technological hazard intensity, frequency and the people, assets and systems exposed, keyed to Hazard Standard. | |
SantéHLT |
Disease burden, health-system capacity and health-security preparedness. | |
Systèmes alimentairesFOO |
Food availability, access, utilisation, stability and acute food insecurity. | |
EauWAT |
Water availability, stress, access, quality and transboundary dependence. | |
ÉnergieENE |
Energy access, supply security, import dependence, diversity, reliability and transition. | |
InfrastructuresINF |
Critical infrastructure stock, condition, service continuity, connectivity and urban systems. | |
Cyber et numériqueCYB |
Cyber-security commitment and capability, digital dependence and incident exposure. | |
Gouvernance et institutionsGOV |
Quality of governance, rule of law, policy and institutional capacity, statistical capacity. | |
Conflits et sécuritéCON |
Organised violence, its deadliness, diffusion and civilian harm, militarisation and peace. | |
Social and human developmentSOC |
Poverty, inequality, education, gender, social protection and human development. | |
Demography and mobilityDEM |
Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement. | |
Environnement et biodiversitéENV |
Pollution, ecosystem condition, land and biodiversity, and nature dependence. | |
Technology and frontierTEC |
Frontier technology capability, concentration and systemic technology risk (AI, biotech, space, quantum). | |
Coping capacity and resilienceCRS |
Disaster risk reduction, early warning, risk financing and protection gaps. | |
Economic structure and tradeECO |
Trade openness, concentration and dependence, supply-chain exposure and economic complexity. | |
Space environmentSPC |
Space weather and the exposure of space-dependent services. |
05Indicator Standard
Indicator Standard risk components
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
AléaHAZARD |
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ExpositionEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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Coping capacityCOPING_CAPACITY |
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Adaptive capacityADAPTIVE_CAPACITY |
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RéponseRESPONSE |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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ContexteCONTEXT |
06Facet
systemic risk chain stages
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
AléaHAZARD |
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ExpositionEXPOSURE |
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VulnerabilityVULNERABILITY |
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ImpactIMPACT |
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LikelihoodLIKELIHOOD |
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RisqueRISK |
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CapacityCAPACITY |
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RéponseRESPONSE |
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FinancingFINANCING |
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RésultatOUTCOME |
07nrm
Method libraries
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Mathématiques et statistiques universellesuniversal-mathematics-statistics |
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Science des aléashazard-science |
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Renseignement sur l’exposition et les actifsexposure-asset-intelligence |
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Vulnérabilité, fragilité et résiliencevulnerability-fragility-resilience |
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Conséquences et pertesconsequence-loss |
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Risque de catastrophecatastrophe-risk |
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Réseaux, dépendances et risque systémiquenetwork-dependency-systemic |
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Risque financierfinancial-risk |
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Assurance et réassuranceinsurance-reinsurance |
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Marchés, commerce et chaînes d'approvisionnementmarket-trade-supply-chain |
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Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risksovereign-macro-development |
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Politiques, réglementation et gouvernancepolicy-regulation-governance |
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Risque hydriquewater-risk |
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Alimentation, agriculture et pêchefood-agriculture-fisheries |
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Risque énergétiqueenergy-risk |
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Santé et épidémiologiehealth-epidemiology |
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Climat, nature et biodiversitéclimate-nature-biodiversity |
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Critical infrastructure and industrial riskcritical-infrastructure-industrial |
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Cyber, IA et technologies de pointecyber-ai-frontier-tech |
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Géopolitique, conflits et sécurité humainegeopolitical-conflict-human-security |
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Projets, programmes et investissements dans les infrastructuresproject-programme-infrastructure-investment |
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Données de risquerisk-data |
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Assurance scientifiquescientific-assurance |
The twenty functional system classes
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
NXS-CMD (Integrated posture and executive synthesis)executive-synthesis |
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NXS-NST (Civilian common operating picture)common-operating-picture |
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NXS-DSS (Decision cases and deliberation)decision-support |
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NXS-COR (Compute, nodes and runtimes)compute-runtime |
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NXS-NXQ (Software, models and capability lifecycle)software-model-lifecycle |
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NXS-GRX (Canonical data, provenance and risk)risk-data-provenance |
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NXS-EOP (Earth observation and digital twins)earth-observation-twins |
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NXS-EWS (Multi-hazard monitoring and warning)monitoring-warning |
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NXS-AAP (Anticipatory action and triggers)anticipatory-action |
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NXS-NET (Network topology and continuity)network-continuity |
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NXS-OPS (Instruments, sensors and calibration)instruments-sensing |
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NXS-SIG (Signal, spectrum, timing and PNT)signal-timing-pnt |
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NXS-NSF (Trust, authorisation and assurance)trust-assurance |
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NXS-HUB (Knowledge, records and learning)knowledge-records |
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NXS-STU (Composition, dashboards and workflows)composition-workflow |
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NXS-FAC (Blueprints, builds and signing)build-signing |
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NXS-APP (Application catalogue and lifecycle)application-lifecycle |
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NXS-RLS (Participants, agreements and handoffs)participation-agreements |
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NXS-POR (Public, client and partner delivery)public-delivery |
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NXS-LAB (Research, experiments and simulations)research-simulation |
09Facet
Nexus Universe platforms
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Asset Management Nexusasset-management-nexus |
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Banking Nexusbanking-nexus |
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Biodiversity Nexusbiodiversity-nexus |
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Capital Markets Nexuscapital-markets-nexus |
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Capital Nexuscapital-nexus |
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Development Finance Nexusdevelopment-finance-nexus |
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Diplomacy Nexusdiplomacy-nexus |
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Energy Nexusenergy-nexus |
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Financial Regulation Nexusfinancial-regulation-nexus |
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Fintech Nexusfintech-nexus |
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Food Nexusfood-nexus |
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Foresight Nexusforesight-nexus |
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Governance Nexusgovernance-nexus |
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Health Nexushealth-nexus |
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Innovation Nexusinnovation-nexus |
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Institutional Funds Nexusinstitutional-funds-nexus |
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Insurance Nexusinsurance-nexus |
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Nexus Agencynexus-agency |
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Nexus Campaignsnexus-campaigns |
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Nexus Labsnexus-labs |
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Nexus Registrynexus-registry |
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Rapports Nexusnexus-reports |
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Policy Nexuspolicy-nexus |
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Private Equity Nexusprivate-equity-nexus |
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Research Nexusresearch-nexus |
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Sovereign Capital Nexussovereign-capital-nexus |
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Water Nexuswater-nexus |
10Facet
Universe applied domain packs
| Node | Definition | Normes |
|---|---|---|
Aviationaviation |
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Maritimemaritime |
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Railrail |
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Roads mobilityroads-mobility |
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Transport logisticstransport-logistics |
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Ports trade corridorsports-trade-corridors |
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Cities urbancities-urban |
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Buildings housingbuildings-housing |
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Data centresdata-centers |
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Semi-conducteurssemiconductors |
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Telecom digital infrastructuretelecom-digital-infrastructure |
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Space satellitespace-satellite |
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Mining critical mineralsmining-critical-minerals |
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Manufacturing industrialmanufacturing-industrial |
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Chemicals processchemicals-process |
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Waste circular economywaste-circular-economy |
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Forests landforests-land |
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Oceans coastaloceans-coastal |
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Fisheries blue economyfisheries-blue-economy |
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Climate adaptationclimate-adaptation |
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Climate mitigation carbonclimate-mitigation-carbon |
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Disaster risk resiliencedisaster-risk-resilience |
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Humanitarian crisishumanitarian-crisis |
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Education workforceeducation-workforce |
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Digital governmentdigital-government |
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Public finance fiscal riskpublic-finance-fiscal-risk |
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Biotechnology bioeconomybiotechnology-bioeconomy |
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Quantum ecosystemquantum-ecosystem |
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Robotics autonomyrobotics-autonomy |
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Ai national adoptionai-national-adoption |
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Cyber national resiliencecyber-national-resilience |
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Nuclear fusionnuclear-fusion |
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Hydrogen storagehydrogen-storage |
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Agriculture ruralagriculture-rural |
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Health infrastructurehealth-infrastructure |
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Infrastructures critiquescritical-infrastructure |
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Research infrastructureresearch-infrastructure |
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Supply chain tradesupply-chain-trade |
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Community local resiliencecommunity-local-resilience |
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Islands small statesislands-small-states |
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Arctic polararctic-polar |
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Cross border basinscross-border-basins |
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Industrial decarbonisationindustrial-decarbonization |
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Construction infrastructure deliveryconstruction-infrastructure-delivery |
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Emergency communicationsemergency-communications |
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Food supply chainsfood-supply-chains |
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Pharmaceutical medical supplypharmaceutical-medical-supply |
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Financial system resiliencefinancial-system-resilience |
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Nature finance projectsnature-finance-projects |
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Sovereign compute ai infrastructuresovereign-compute-ai-infrastructure |
Propose a change to the taxonomy
The taxonomy is a proposal under the standards development process.
Statut
La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.
Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas
NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.
Institutions et sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.