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Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
Page GRX-GOVEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
ProjetCalculéLié aux preuvesExaminéApprouvé pour publicationPubliéCorrigéRemplacé
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01Gestionnaires

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Données probantes et méthodes

GCRI Canada

Preuves, méthodes, ontologie du risque, discipline des données, registres vérifiables et correction.

Leadership et programme annuel

Le Global Risks Forum

Leadership, dialogue institutionnel et gestion de Nexus Universe. Il consigne les points de contrôle du programme G0 à G7.

Préparation financière

La Global Risks Alliance

Préparation financière, assurantielle et de développement. Les preuves de risque deviennent des éléments de diligence, jamais une approbation ni une transaction.

02Examen

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

ProjetCalculéLié aux preuvesExaminéApprouvé pour publicationPubliéCorrigéRemplacé
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

Graphe
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04Indicateurs
05Indices
06Indices
07Indices
08Incertitude
09Incertitude
10Examen
11Examen
12Publication

100%
Chronologie
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Étapes
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    Service d'exécution NXS-GRXRegistre PostgreSQL (sécurité au niveau des lignes)
  2. Contrôle de licence

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    Registre des licences
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    Service d'exécution NXS-GRXnorme d'indicateurs
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    Service d'exécution NXS-GRXnorme d'indicateurs
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    Service d'exécution NXS-GRXNoyaux de modèles testés
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Vingt indices de domaine
    Service d'exécution NXS-GRXNoyaux de modèles testés
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    Réseau de dépendancesNoyaux de modèles testés
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    Moteur Monte Carlo
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    Moteur Monte Carlo
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    Noyaux de modèles testés
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    Registre PostgreSQL (sécurité au niveau des lignes)
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    Tuiles vectoriellesDépôt sur Zenodo
Artefacts
Artefact Tâche Qui Étape
Cut record Evidence cut frozen Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Cut
Withheld counts Contrôle de licence Registre des licences Ingest
HAR series Harmonise Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Ingest
IND values Indicateurs Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Indicateurs
SUB values Sub-indices Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Indices
IDX values Indices de domaine Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Indices
S per country Coupling score Service d'exécution NXS-GRX Indices
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws Moteur Monte Carlo Incertitude
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol Moteur Monte Carlo Incertitude
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer Examen
Release decision Steward review Gestionnaires Examen
Édition Profiles and series Foundry Publication
Tuiles Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publication
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry Publication
TerminéEn coursEn attente d'approbationEn file d'attenteÉtape d'approbationTâche matricielleVous êtes ici
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04Intégrité

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

Droit de réponse

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05Frontières

Information, pas autorité

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

Superficie Principle How the index meets it État
Gouvernance 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
Gouvernance 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
Gouvernance 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
Gouvernance 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
Gouvernance 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
Redevabilité 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
Redevabilité 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
Redevabilité 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
Redevabilité 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07Politiques

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

Plaintes

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

Modifications

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

Utiliser

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

Usage de l'IA

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

Formulaire

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01RemplirLes champs marqués (obligatoire) sont requis ; tout le reste facilite l'examen.
  2. 02RéférenceVous obtenez une référence à l'écran ; l'enregistrement est conservé dans la base de données WordPress de ce site.
  3. 03ExamenLa décision est consignée publiquement. Les coordonnées restent sur ce site et ne sont jamais publiées ni communiquées.
Form · grx-reply

Ce formulaire s'ouvrira ici dès qu'il sera activé. D'ici là, envoyez votre demande par la passerelle Nexus Reports.

Signaler une erreur

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

Statut

La méthodologie, la structure et les définitions de The Global Risks Index constituent un projet de travail préparatoire (2026), diffusé pour examen et commentaires et non pour mise en œuvre. Aucune valeur n'apparaît avant la publication d'une édition à partir d'une coupe de données probantes encadrée ; les valeurs comportent alors des intervalles, des classes, des sources et leur voie de correction. Les simulateurs appliquent les méthodes publiées à des nombres que vous choisissez et n'affichent jamais de valeur NXS-GRX.

Ce que NXS-GRX n'est pas

NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques. Ce n'est pas une notation de crédit ou ESG et il n'utilise aucune échelle de notation ; ce n'est pas un indice de référence pour des instruments financiers, ni une statistique officielle, ni une alerte d'urgence ou une classification officielle, ni un conseil. Il ne doit pas servir à évaluer des personnes physiques. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, jamais des classements de pays ou de personnes.

Institutions et sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Chaque valeur porte l'attribution de ses sources, qui conservent leurs propres licences. Les noms externes ne sont cités qu'à des fins d'interopérabilité. Les textes rédigés par Nexus sont destinés à être publiés sous licence CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.