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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Governance

Stewarded in the open

Three independent stewards, a published review path, a public correction log and a right of reply for every country.

Review and release
ページ GRX-GOV版 ベースライン版 2026エビデンス締め切り 2026-09-30値 未公開手法 v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Lifecycle of a value
草案算出済みエビデンスに拘束審査済み公表承認済み公開済み訂正済み置き換え済み
3
independent stewards
8
lifecycle states
195
rights of reply
1
public correction log

01スチュワード

Three independent stewards

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

証拠と手法

GCRI Canada

エビデンス、手法、リスクオントロジー、データの規律、検証可能な記録、訂正。

リーダーシップと年次プログラム

グローバル・リスク・フォーラム（The Global Risks Forum）

リーダーシップ、機関間の対話、Nexus Universe の管理。プログラムのゲート G0〜G7 を記録します。

金融準備

グローバル・リスク・アライアンス（The Global Risks Alliance）

金融、保険、開発の準備。リスクのエビデンスはデューデリジェンス資料となり、承認や取引にはなりません。

02レビュー

Review and release

Each edition passes method review, data and licence review, the public-safe screen and steward review; an independent statistical audit reviews each major methodology version.

草案算出済みエビデンスに拘束審査済み公表承認済み公開済み訂正済み置き換え済み
03Release run

Review gates in the release workflow

The audit and steward gates hold the run until the named reviewers record a disposition.

on: evidence cut

Edition release: review gates

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

グラフ
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04指標
05指数
06指数
07指数
08不確実性
09不確実性
10レビュー
11レビュー
12公表

100%
タイムライン
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

ステップ
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX 実行サービスPostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  2. ライセンスの関門

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    ライセンス登録簿
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX 実行サービス指標標準
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX 実行サービス指標標準
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX 実行サービステスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    20 の分野別指数
    NXS-GRX 実行サービステスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    依存ネットワークテスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    モンテカルロ・エンジン
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    モンテカルロ・エンジン
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    テスト済みのモデル・カーネル
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL 台帳（行レベル・セキュリティ）
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    ベクタータイルZenodo への登録
成果物
成果物 ジョブ 担当 段階
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX 実行サービス Cut
Withheld counts ライセンスの関門 ライセンス登録簿 Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX 実行サービス Ingest
IND values 指標 NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指標
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
IDX values 分野別指数 NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX 実行サービス 指数
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws モンテカルロ・エンジン 不確実性
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol モンテカルロ・エンジン 不確実性
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer レビュー
Release decision Steward review スチュワード レビュー
版 Profiles and series Foundry 公表
タイル Tiles and bulk files Foundry 公表
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry 公表
完了進行中承認待ち待機中承認ゲートマトリクス・ジョブ現在地
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
04インテグリティ

Integrity rules

Declared interests

Conflict-of-interest declarations for every reviewer and contributor of values.

No outside edits

No party, funder or provider can change a value outside the published method and correction process.

反論権

Country right of reply and a public correction log.

Do no harm

Sensitive outputs (conflict, famine, biosecurity) pass a do-no-harm screen; publication can be delayed or generalised where detail could cause harm.

Replication

Methods, seeds and digests published for replication.

05境界

情報であり、権威ではない

NXS-GRX makes risk visible without making it officially rated; makes disaster risk reduction actionable for learning without issuing commands; makes disaster risk finance questions readable without creating finance or insurance execution; makes intelligence useful without creating public warnings; and makes frontier technology risks structured without certifying anything.

06Benchmark

Benchmark principles, applied voluntarily

The index is not a regulated financial benchmark. It applies the IOSCO Principles for Financial Benchmarks (2013) voluntarily, because people use risk indices to make financial decisions.

面積 Principle How the index meets it 状況
ガバナンス 1 · Overall responsibility The three stewards hold responsibility for every stage, from evidence cut to correction; GCRI acts as Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat. In place
ガバナンス 2 · Oversight of third parties Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and cannot change a value outside the published method. In place
ガバナンス 3 · Conflicts of interest Reviewers and contributors declare interests; funders and providers have no role in determinations. A public register of declarations opens with the first edition. Designed
ガバナンス 4 · Control framework Each edition runs as a workflow with method, data, licence, public-safe and steward gates that hold the run until a named reviewer records a disposition. In place
ガバナンス 5 · Internal oversight Steward review of every edition; an independent statistical audit of each major method version, its auditor to be appointed. Stewards to decide
Quality of the index 6 · Design The method documents what each index measures, its polarity, aggregation and limits, with intervals instead of league tables. In place
Quality of the index 7 · Data sufficiency Coverage thresholds per value, imputation flagged and capped, withheld values counted and stated. In place
Quality of the index 8 · Hierarchy of inputs Registered sources only, each admitted on its own licence; official statistics first, then peer-reviewed and open research products, each labelled. In place
Quality of the index 9 · Transparency of determinations Every value opens to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. In place
Quality of the index 10 · Periodic review An annual method review with an open consultation; every comment receives a disposition. Designed
Quality of the method 11 · Content of the method The full method is published: construction steps, aggregation, imputation, classes, uncertainty and validation. In place
Quality of the method 12 · Changes to the method Proposal, public consultation of at least 30 days, disposition, semantic version and notice before the change takes effect. Designed
Quality of the method 13 · Transition and cessation A discontinued indicator or series is announced with its replacement, overlap period and back-cast where inputs allow. Designed
Quality of the method 14 · Contributor code of conduct Contributions arrive through structured forms with licence, provenance and declarations; contributors keep their rights. In place
Quality of the method 15 · Controls over data collection Licence gate, provenance on every record, frozen inputs per vintage and build checks that fail on drift. In place
説明責任 16 · Complaints Right of reply and correction requests through a public form, acknowledged, reviewed and published with their effect on any value. In place
説明責任 17 · Audits External audit of the method and its application, scope and auditor to be decided by the stewards. Stewards to decide
説明責任 18 · Audit trail Vintages, provenance, the release workflow record and the correction log are kept for every edition. In place
説明責任 19 · Cooperation with authorities The index is not a regulated benchmark; records are available to competent authorities on request. In place
07ポリシー

Policies a user of the index can rely on

Conflicts

Conflicts of interest

Every reviewer, contributor of values and working-group member declares funding, employment and holdings. A declared conflict excludes that person from the determination it touches.

苦情

Complaints and right of reply

Anyone can ask for a correction, and a national authority can file a reply, through the form on this page. Each request is acknowledged, reviewed in public and published with its outcome.

Revisions

Revisions and restatements

Values are never revised silently. A correction creates a new vintage, states what changed and why, and keeps the earlier vintage retrievable.

変更履歴

Method changes

A change is proposed, consulted on for at least 30 days, answered, versioned and announced before it takes effect, with a back-cast where inputs allow.

Cessation

Transition and cessation

An indicator or series that has to stop is announced with its replacement and an overlap period, so users can move without a break.

活用

Use in decisions and contracts

The index informs judgement; it is not investment advice and not intended as a reference rate in contracts. Users remain responsible for how they use it.

08AI

AIの利用

AI assists drafting, coding and quality checks; every published value is computed by declared kernels from governed inputs, and AI-assisted text is reviewed and disclosed. No value is generated by a language model.

フォーム

Right of reply and correction request

A national authority, institution or person concerned asks for a correction or files a reply; it is reviewed in public and recorded with its effect on any value.

  1. 01入力する（必須）と記された項目は入力が必要です。その他の項目は審査に役立ちます。
  2. 02参照番号画面に受付番号が表示されます。記録はこのサイトの WordPress データベースに保管されます。
  3. 03レビュー結果は公開で記録されます。連絡先はこのサイト内に留まり、公開や共有は一切されません。
Form · grx-reply

このフォームは有効になるとここで開きます。それまでは次の窓口からお送りください： Nexus Reports ゲートウェイ.

誤りを報告する

Every correction is reviewed in public and logged with its effect on each value.

Send a correction

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.