The Global Risks Index · 46 entries · 2026-10
The risk index landscape
What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.
ページ GRX-LND版 ベースライン版 2026エビデンス締め切り 2026-09-30値 未公開手法 v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Families read
9 entries
マルチハザードの災害・人道リスク
INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.
Open
10 entries紛争、平和、脆弱性、ガバナンス
Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.
Open
7 entries経済・ソブリン・金融リスク
Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.
Open
4 entries気候、環境、自然
Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.
Open
4 entries保健と食料
Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.
Open
4 entries技術、サイバー、フロンティアのリスク
Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.
Open
3 entries認知とフォーサイト
Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.
Open
5 entries開発とレジリエンス
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.
開く
46
indices read
8
families
17
gaps addressed
9
standards followed
01Gaps
What no index does yet
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).
| ギャップ | NXS-GRX design |
|---|---|
| No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure | Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar |
| Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled | Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite |
| 地方レベルのカバレッジは乏しく、比較できない | ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity |
| 不確実性はほとんど報告されず、順位が過大に解釈される | 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables |
| データは 1〜3 年遅れ | Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams |
| 予測や事後検証を行う指数は少ない | 検証スコアカードを公開する見通しツール |
| シナリオ予測は少なく、マクロのみ | Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100 |
| 認知リスクと測定リスクが混同されている | Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap |
| Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences | レコード単位の来歴、ライセンスゲート、公開の訂正ログ |
| 機械アクセスが弱い（PDF・表計算での公開） | API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases |
| ライセンス制限が派生的な再利用を妨げる | 情報源ごとのライセンスゲート。非表示の値も件数に含む |
| Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states | Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped |
| 書類上の能力が実績と取り違えられる | Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events |
| 手法の変更が比較可能性を損なう | セマンティックバージョン、遡及系列、リリースごとのダイジェスト |
| Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk | Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument |
| 指数間で共有される分類体系がない | hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists |
| 平均値はファットテールを隠す | Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled |
02ファミリー
マルチハザードの災害・人道リスク
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk | EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group | 191 countries | Annual with mid-year update | 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 | Source series | No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag |
| INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models | EU Joint Research Centre and partners | Crises, projections, admin levels | Monthly to irregular | INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method | クロスウォーク | Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid |
| WorldRiskIndex | NGO alliance with a university institute | 193 countries | 年次の | Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard |
| Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | 世界 | About biennial | Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative | Complement | No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured |
| ThinkHazard! | World Bank GFDRR | Admin-2, global | Occasional | 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes | クロスウォーク | Hazard only; no vulnerability |
| Climate Risk Index | Germanwatch (NGO) | About 170 to 190 countries | 年次の | 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows | クロスウォーク | Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias |
| ND-GAIN | University of Notre Dame | About 185 countries | 年次の | Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries |
| States of Fragility | OECD | 170+ contexts screened | About biennial | 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes | クロスウォーク | Classifies rather than measures; not predictive |
| Global Conflict Risk Index | EU Joint Research Centre | About 130 to 190 countries | Annual or semi-annual | About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 | クロスウォーク | Structural only; no event nowcast |
03ファミリー
紛争、平和、脆弱性、ガバナンス
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index | Fund for Peace (NGO) | 179 countries | 年次の | 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 | クロスウォーク | Media-volume bias; reuse restricted |
| Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index | Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) | About 163 countries | 年次の | 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores | クロスウォーク | Contested weights; source-dataset dependency |
| ACLED Conflict Index | ACLED (NGO) | About 240 countries and territories | Annual and weekly | Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories | Source series | Licence limits redistribution |
| UCDP | Uppsala University | Global, geocoded events | Annual and monthly | Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite | Source series | Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts |
| V-Dem | University of Gothenburg | 202 countries | 年次の | More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 | クロスウォーク | Expert subjectivity; one-year lag |
| Worldwide Governance Indicators | World Bank | About 214 economies | 年次の | 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors | Source series | Perception-based; correlated source errors |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | Transparency International (NGO) | 180 countries | 年次の | 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | No-derivatives licence constrains reuse |
| Global Organised Crime Index | GI-TOC (NGO) | 193 countries | Biennial | Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 | クロスウォーク | Expert-driven |
| Basel AML Index | Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) | About 160 to 200 jurisdictions | 年次の | 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 | クロスウォーク | Depends on evaluation cycles |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance | 基盤 | 137 and 54 countries | Biennial | Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means | クロスウォーク | Partial coverage |
04ファミリー
経済・ソブリン・金融リスク
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Risk Classification | OECD (export credits arrangement) | About 200 countries | Three times a year | Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 | クロスウォーク | Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished |
| Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) | IMF and World Bank | Low-income and market-access countries | Per review | Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement | Source series | Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals |
| Sovereign credit ratings | Commercial rating agencies (category) | About 130 to 150 sovereigns | Ongoing | Committee scorecards. Letter grades | Complement | Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale |
| Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices | BIS and central banks | 40+ economies | Daily to quarterly | Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights | Source series | Advanced economies mostly |
| Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | 世界 | Monthly | 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations | クロスウォーク | No country decomposition |
| Logistics Performance Index | World Bank | 139 countries | Every 3 to 5 years | 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 | クロスウォーク | Infrequent; perception-based |
| Economic complexity | University research centres | About 130 to 145 countries | 年次の | Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method | クロスウォーク | Structural signal, not risk |
05ファミリー
気候、環境、自然
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Performance Index | Yale and Columbia universities | 180 countries | About biennial | 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Performance, not risk |
| Central-bank network climate scenarios | Network of central banks and supervisors | Global, regional, country | About annual | 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models | Source series | Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated |
| Aqueduct water risk | World Resources Institute (NGO) | Global sub-basins | Occasional | 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections | Source series | Coarse units; ageing layers |
| Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index | Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities | Global grid, sectors, EEZs | Varies | Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Weak link to local ground truth |
06ファミリー
保健と食料
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Health Security Index | NGO and university partnership | 195 か国 | 2019 and 2021 | 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021 |
| IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation | WHO | 196 States Parties | Annual and ad hoc | 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 | Source series | Self-reporting bias |
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé | Multi-agency technical partnership | Assessed areas | Per country cycle | Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups | Source series | Limited to assessed areas |
| Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises | NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network | About 50 to 136 countries | 年次の | 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation | クロスウォーク | Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring |
07ファミリー
技術、サイバー、フロンティアのリスク
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Cybersecurity Index | ITU | 194 countries | About biennial | 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 | Source series | Measures commitment, not threat or incidents |
| National Cyber Security Index | Government-backed academy | 170+ countries | Rolling | 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 | クロスウォーク | Capacity only |
| AI indices and incident monitors | Universities, OECD and NGOs | Varies | Annual or continuous | Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed | クロスウォーク | No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists |
| Global catastrophic risk assessments | University centres and foundations | 世界 | Irregular | Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation | Complement | No standardised country index |
08ファミリー
認知とフォーサイト
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Risks Report | World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) | 世界 | 年次の | Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey | クロスウォーク | Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed |
| World Risk Poll | Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) | About 142 countries | Biennial | Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll | クロスウォーク | Survey cadence |
| Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research | Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) | 世界 | 年次の | Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data | Complement | Proprietary inputs |
09ファミリー
開発とレジリエンス
| インデックス | Steward | 対象範囲 | 周期 | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index | UNDP with OPHI | 193 and about 110 countries | 年次の | 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster | Source series | Survey lags |
| SDG Index and Social Progress Index | UN SDSN; a non-profit | About 167 to 170 countries | 年次の | 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights | クロスウォーク | Outcome dashboards, not risk |
| Sendai Framework Monitor | UNDRR | Reporting countries | 年次の | 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting | Source series | Uneven reporting |
| Global Innovation Index | WIPO | About 133 countries | 年次の | 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit | クロスウォーク | Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency |
| Business Ready (B-READY) | World Bank | 101 economies (2025), expanding | 年次の | 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 | Source series | Coverage still expanding |
10標準
Standards NXS-GRX follows
STDOECD/JRC Handbook on Constructing Composite IndicatorsThe ten construction steps NXS-GRX follows→ STDJRC COIN statistical audit practiceCorrelation structure, coherence, Monte Carlo uncertainty and rank stability→ STDISO 31000 and IEC 31010Risk-management vocabulary and assessment techniques (referenced; no conformance claimed)→ STDSendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionTargets A–G and 38 indicators as crosswalk keys→ STDUNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025)Canonical hazard keys through Hazard Standard crosswalks→ STDIRDR peril classificationCrosswalk for loss databases→ STDSDMX (ISO 17369)Observation keys, code lists and statistical exchange→ STDUN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the NQAF manualQuality dimensions (relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence)→ STDW3C PROV-O, DCAT, STAC, OGC API and FAIRProvenance, catalogue, geospatial and access standards→
Steward of an index listed here?
Tell us if a description is wrong or out of date; corrections are made in the open.
ステータス
The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。
NXS-GRX ではないもの
NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。
機関と情報源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.