The risk index landscape
What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.
ریسک سوانح و ریسک بشردوستانهٔ چندمخاطره‌ای
INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.
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10 entriesمنازعه، صلح، شکنندگی و حکمرانی
Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.
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7 entriesریسک اقتصادی، حاکمیتی و مالی
Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.
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4 entriesاقلیم، محیط زیست و طبیعت
Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.
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4 entriesسلامت و غذا
Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.
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4 entriesریسک فناوری، سایبری و فناوری‌های پیشرو
Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.
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3 entriesادراک و آینده‌نگری
Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.
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5 entriesتوسعه و تاب‌آوری
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.
باز
What no index does yet
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).
| شکاف | NXS-GRX design |
|---|---|
| No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure | Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar |
| Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled | Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite |
| پوشش زیرملی اندک و غیرقابل مقایسه است | ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity |
| عدم قطعیت به‌ندرت گزارش می‌شود؛ رتبه‌ها بیش از حد تفسیر می‌شوند | 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables |
| داده‌ها یک تا سه سال تأخیر دارند | Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams |
| شاخص‌های اندکی پیش‌بینی می‌کنند یا پس‌آزمایی می‌شوند | ابزار چشم‌انداز با کارنامه‌های راستی‌آزمایی منتشرشده |
| پیش‌نگری‌های سناریو کمیاب و فقط کلان‌اند | Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100 |
| ریسک ادراک‌شده و سنجیده‌شده درهم آمیخته‌اند | Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap |
| Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences | خاستگاه در سطح سابقه، دروازهٔ پروانه، سیاههٔ اصلاحات عمومی |
| دسترسی ماشینی ضعیف است (انتشار به‌صورت PDF و صفحه‌گسترده) | API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases |
| محدودیت‌های پروانه استفادهٔ مجدد مشتق را مسدود می‌کنند | دروازهٔ پروانه برای هر منبع؛ مقادیر نگه‌داشته‌شده شمرده می‌شوند |
| Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states | Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped |
| ظرفیت روی کاغذ با عملکرد اشتباه گرفته می‌شود | Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events |
| روش‌ها تغییر می‌کنند و مقایسه‌پذیری را می‌شکنند | نسخه‌های معنایی، سری‌های پس‌محاسبه‌شده، چکیده برای هر انتشار |
| Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk | Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument |
| طبقه‌بندی مشترکی میان شاخص‌ها نیست | hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists |
| میانگین‌ها دنباله‌های پهن را پنهان می‌کنند | Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled |
ریسک سوانح و ریسک بشردوستانهٔ چندمخاطره‌ای
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk | EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group | 191 countries | Annual with mid-year update | 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 | Source series | No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag |
| INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models | EU Joint Research Centre and partners | Crises, projections, admin levels | Monthly to irregular | INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method | تطبیق | Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid |
| WorldRiskIndex | NGO alliance with a university institute | 193 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 | تطبیق | Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard |
| Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | جهانی | About biennial | Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative | Complement | No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured |
| ThinkHazard! | World Bank GFDRR | Admin-2, global | Occasional | 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes | تطبیق | Hazard only; no vulnerability |
| Climate Risk Index | Germanwatch (NGO) | About 170 to 190 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows | تطبیق | Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias |
| ND-GAIN | University of Notre Dame | About 185 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 | تطبیق | Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries |
| States of Fragility | OECD | 170+ contexts screened | About biennial | 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes | تطبیق | Classifies rather than measures; not predictive |
| Global Conflict Risk Index | EU Joint Research Centre | About 130 to 190 countries | Annual or semi-annual | About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 | تطبیق | Structural only; no event nowcast |
منازعه، صلح، شکنندگی و حکمرانی
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index | Fund for Peace (NGO) | 179 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 | تطبیق | Media-volume bias; reuse restricted |
| Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index | Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) | About 163 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores | تطبیق | Contested weights; source-dataset dependency |
| ACLED Conflict Index | ACLED (NGO) | About 240 countries and territories | Annual and weekly | Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories | Source series | Licence limits redistribution |
| UCDP | Uppsala University | Global, geocoded events | Annual and monthly | Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite | Source series | Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts |
| V-Dem | University of Gothenburg | 202 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 | تطبیق | Expert subjectivity; one-year lag |
| Worldwide Governance Indicators | World Bank | About 214 economies | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors | Source series | Perception-based; correlated source errors |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | Transparency International (NGO) | 180 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 | تطبیق | No-derivatives licence constrains reuse |
| Global Organised Crime Index | GI-TOC (NGO) | 193 countries | Biennial | Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 | تطبیق | Expert-driven |
| Basel AML Index | Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) | About 160 to 200 jurisdictions | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 | تطبیق | Depends on evaluation cycles |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance | مبانی | 137 and 54 countries | Biennial | Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means | تطبیق | Partial coverage |
ریسک اقتصادی، حاکمیتی و مالی
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Risk Classification | OECD (export credits arrangement) | About 200 countries | Three times a year | Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 | تطبیق | Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished |
| Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) | IMF and World Bank | Low-income and market-access countries | Per review | Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement | Source series | Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals |
| Sovereign credit ratings | Commercial rating agencies (category) | About 130 to 150 sovereigns | Ongoing | Committee scorecards. Letter grades | Complement | Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale |
| Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices | BIS and central banks | 40+ economies | Daily to quarterly | Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights | Source series | Advanced economies mostly |
| Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | جهانی | Monthly | 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations | تطبیق | No country decomposition |
| Logistics Performance Index | World Bank | 139 countries | Every 3 to 5 years | 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 | تطبیق | Infrequent; perception-based |
| Economic complexity | University research centres | About 130 to 145 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method | تطبیق | Structural signal, not risk |
اقلیم، محیط زیست و طبیعت
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Performance Index | Yale and Columbia universities | 180 countries | About biennial | 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 | تطبیق | Performance, not risk |
| Central-bank network climate scenarios | Network of central banks and supervisors | Global, regional, country | About annual | 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models | Source series | Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated |
| Aqueduct water risk | World Resources Institute (NGO) | Global sub-basins | Occasional | 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections | Source series | Coarse units; ageing layers |
| Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index | Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities | Global grid, sectors, EEZs | Varies | Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 | تطبیق | Weak link to local ground truth |
سلامت و غذا
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Health Security Index | NGO and university partnership | 195 کشور | 2019 and 2021 | 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 | تطبیق | Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021 |
| IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation | WHO | 196 States Parties | Annual and ad hoc | 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 | Source series | Self-reporting bias |
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé | Multi-agency technical partnership | Assessed areas | Per country cycle | Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups | Source series | Limited to assessed areas |
| Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises | NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network | About 50 to 136 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation | تطبیق | Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring |
ریسک فناوری، سایبری و فناوری‌های پیشرو
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Cybersecurity Index | ITU | 194 countries | About biennial | 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 | Source series | Measures commitment, not threat or incidents |
| National Cyber Security Index | Government-backed academy | 170+ countries | Rolling | 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 | تطبیق | Capacity only |
| AI indices and incident monitors | Universities, OECD and NGOs | Varies | Annual or continuous | Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed | تطبیق | No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists |
| Global catastrophic risk assessments | University centres and foundations | جهانی | Irregular | Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation | Complement | No standardised country index |
ادراک و آینده‌نگری
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Risks Report | World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) | جهانی | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey | تطبیق | Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed |
| World Risk Poll | Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) | About 142 countries | Biennial | Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll | تطبیق | Survey cadence |
| Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research | Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) | جهانی | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data | Complement | Proprietary inputs |
توسعه و تاب‌آوری
| شاخص | Steward | پوشش | دورهٔ تکرار | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index | UNDP with OPHI | 193 and about 110 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster | Source series | Survey lags |
| SDG Index and Social Progress Index | UN SDSN; a non-profit | About 167 to 170 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights | تطبیق | Outcome dashboards, not risk |
| Sendai Framework Monitor | UNDRR | Reporting countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting | Source series | Uneven reporting |
| Global Innovation Index | WIPO | About 133 countries | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit | تطبیق | Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency |
| Business Ready (B-READY) | World Bank | 101 economies (2025), expanding | چرخهٔ عملیاتی سالانهٔ | 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 | Source series | Coverage still expanding |
Standards NXS-GRX follows
Steward of an index listed here?
Tell us if a description is wrong or out of date; corrections are made in the open.
وضعیت
روش‌شناسی، ساختار و تعاریف The Global Risks Index پیش‌نویس کاری مقدماتی (2026) است که برای بررسی و اظهارنظر منتشر شده و برای اجرا نیست. هیچ مقداری نمایش داده نمی‌شود تا ویراستی از یک برش شواهد تحت حکمرانی منتشر شود؛ آنگاه مقادیر همراه با بازه‌ها، رده‌ها، منابع و مسیر اصلاح خود ارائه می‌شوند. شبیه‌سازها روش‌های منتشرشده را بر روی اعدادی که شما برمی‌گزینید اجرا می‌کنند و هرگز مقداری از NXS-GRX نشان نمی‌دهند.
آنچه NXS-GRX نیست
NXS-GRX اطلاعات پژوهشی و تحلیلی ریسک است. رتبه‌بندی اعتباری یا ESG نیست و از هیچ مقیاس رتبه‌بندی استفاده نمی‌کند، شاخص مرجع ابزارهای مالی نیست، آمار رسمی نیست، هشدار اضطراری یا طبقه‌بندی رسمی نیست و توصیه نیست. نباید برای ارزیابی اشخاص حقیقی به کار رود. طبقه‌های ریسک بازه‌هایی روی یک مقیاس منتشرشده‌اند، هرگز رتبه‌بندی کشورها یا افراد نیستند.
نهادها و منابع
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
هر مقدار انتساب منابع خود را در بر دارد و آن منابع پروانه‌های خود را حفظ می‌کنند. نام‌های بیرونی تنها برای میان‌کنش‌پذیری ذکر می‌شوند. متون نگاشتهٔ Nexus برای انتشار با پروانهٔ CC BY 4.0 در نظر گرفته شده‌اند.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.