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Il Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · 46 entries · 2026-10

The risk index landscape

What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.

Gaps NXS-GRX closes Standards
Pagina GRX-LNDEdizione Edizione di riferimento 2026Chiusura delle evidenze 2026-09-30Valori non ancora pubblicatiMetodo v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Families read
9 entries

Rischio multi-pericolo di disastri e umanitario

INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.

Open 10 entries

Conflitto, pace, fragilità e governance

Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.

Open 7 entries

Rischi economici, sovrani e finanziari

Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.

Open 4 entries

Clima, ambiente e natura

Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.

Open 4 entries

Salute e cibo

Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.

Open 4 entries

Rischi tecnologici, cyber e di frontiera

Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.

Open 3 entries

Percezione e previsione

Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.

Open 5 entries

Sviluppo e resilienza

Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.

Aperto

46
indices read
8
families
17
gaps addressed
9
standards followed

01Gaps

What no index does yet

Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).

Divario NXS-GRX design
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite
La copertura subnazionale è scarsa e non comparabile ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity
L’incertezza è raramente riportata; le posizioni in classifica sono sovrainterpretate 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables
I dati hanno un ritardo da uno a tre anni Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams
Pochi indici fanno previsioni o sono sottoposti a backtest Strumento di prospettiva con schede di verifica pubblicate
Le proiezioni di scenario sono rare e solo macroeconomiche Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Rischio percepito e misurato si confondono Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences Provenienza a livello di record, filtro di licenza, registro pubblico delle correzioni
L’accesso automatico è debole (rilasci in PDF e fogli di calcolo) API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases
Le restrizioni di licenza bloccano il riutilizzo derivato Filtro di licenza per fonte; i valori trattenuti sono conteggiati
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped
La capacità sulla carta è scambiata per prestazione Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events
I metodi cambiano e compromettono la comparabilità Versioni semantiche, serie ricostruite a ritroso, digest per rilascio
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument
Nessuna tassonomia comune tra gli indici hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists
Le medie nascondono le code spesse Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled
02Famiglia

Rischio multi-pericolo di disastri e umanitario

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
INFORM Risk EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group 191 countries Annual with mid-year update 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 Source series No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag
INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models EU Joint Research Centre and partners Crises, projections, admin levels Monthly to irregular INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method Tavola di corrispondenza Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid
WorldRiskIndex NGO alliance with a university institute 193 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard
Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework UNDRR Globale About biennial Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative Complement No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured
ThinkHazard! World Bank GFDRR Admin-2, global Occasional 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes Tavola di corrispondenza Hazard only; no vulnerability
Climate Risk Index Germanwatch (NGO) About 170 to 190 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows Tavola di corrispondenza Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias
ND-GAIN University of Notre Dame About 185 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries
States of Fragility OECD 170+ contexts screened About biennial 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes Tavola di corrispondenza Classifies rather than measures; not predictive
Global Conflict Risk Index EU Joint Research Centre About 130 to 190 countries Annual or semi-annual About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 Tavola di corrispondenza Structural only; no event nowcast
03Famiglia

Conflitto, pace, fragilità e governance

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Fragile States Index Fund for Peace (NGO) 179 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 Tavola di corrispondenza Media-volume bias; reuse restricted
Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) About 163 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores Tavola di corrispondenza Contested weights; source-dataset dependency
ACLED Conflict Index ACLED (NGO) About 240 countries and territories Annual and weekly Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories Source series Licence limits redistribution
UCDP Uppsala University Global, geocoded events Annual and monthly Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite Source series Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts
V-Dem University of Gothenburg 202 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 Tavola di corrispondenza Expert subjectivity; one-year lag
Worldwide Governance Indicators World Bank About 214 economies Ciclo operativo annuale di 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors Source series Perception-based; correlated source errors
Corruption Perceptions Index Transparency International (NGO) 180 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza No-derivatives licence constrains reuse
Global Organised Crime Index GI-TOC (NGO) 193 countries Biennial Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 Tavola di corrispondenza Expert-driven
Basel AML Index Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) About 160 to 200 jurisdictions Ciclo operativo annuale di 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 Tavola di corrispondenza Depends on evaluation cycles
Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance Fondamenti 137 and 54 countries Biennial Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means Tavola di corrispondenza Partial coverage
04Famiglia

Rischi economici, sovrani e finanziari

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Country Risk Classification OECD (export credits arrangement) About 200 countries Three times a year Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 Tavola di corrispondenza Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished
Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) IMF and World Bank Low-income and market-access countries Per review Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement Source series Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals
Sovereign credit ratings Commercial rating agencies (category) About 130 to 150 sovereigns Ongoing Committee scorecards. Letter grades Complement Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale
Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices BIS and central banks 40+ economies Daily to quarterly Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights Source series Advanced economies mostly
Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Federal Reserve Bank of New York Globale Monthly 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations Tavola di corrispondenza No country decomposition
Logistics Performance Index World Bank 139 countries Every 3 to 5 years 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 Tavola di corrispondenza Infrequent; perception-based
Economic complexity University research centres About 130 to 145 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method Tavola di corrispondenza Structural signal, not risk
05Famiglia

Clima, ambiente e natura

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Environmental Performance Index Yale and Columbia universities 180 countries About biennial 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Performance, not risk
Central-bank network climate scenarios Network of central banks and supervisors Global, regional, country About annual 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models Source series Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated
Aqueduct water risk World Resources Institute (NGO) Global sub-basins Occasional 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections Source series Coarse units; ageing layers
Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities Global grid, sectors, EEZs Varies Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Weak link to local ground truth
06Famiglia

Salute e cibo

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Health Security Index NGO and university partnership 195 paesi 2019 and 2021 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021
IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation WHO 196 States Parties Annual and ad hoc 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 Source series Self-reporting bias
Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé Multi-agency technical partnership Assessed areas Per country cycle Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups Source series Limited to assessed areas
Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network About 50 to 136 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation Tavola di corrispondenza Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring
07Famiglia

Rischi tecnologici, cyber e di frontiera

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Cybersecurity Index ITU 194 countries About biennial 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 Source series Measures commitment, not threat or incidents
National Cyber Security Index Government-backed academy 170+ countries Rolling 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 Tavola di corrispondenza Capacity only
AI indices and incident monitors Universities, OECD and NGOs Varies Annual or continuous Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed Tavola di corrispondenza No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists
Global catastrophic risk assessments University centres and foundations Globale Irregular Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation Complement No standardised country index
08Famiglia

Percezione e previsione

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Global Risks Report World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) Globale Ciclo operativo annuale di Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey Tavola di corrispondenza Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed
World Risk Poll Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) About 142 countries Biennial Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll Tavola di corrispondenza Survey cadence
Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) Globale Ciclo operativo annuale di Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data Complement Proprietary inputs
09Famiglia

Sviluppo e resilienza

Indice Steward Copertura Cadenza Structure and method Relation Limitation
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index UNDP with OPHI 193 and about 110 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster Source series Survey lags
SDG Index and Social Progress Index UN SDSN; a non-profit About 167 to 170 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights Tavola di corrispondenza Outcome dashboards, not risk
Sendai Framework Monitor UNDRR Reporting countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting Source series Uneven reporting
Global Innovation Index WIPO About 133 countries Ciclo operativo annuale di 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit Tavola di corrispondenza Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency
Business Ready (B-READY) World Bank 101 economies (2025), expanding Ciclo operativo annuale di 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 Source series Coverage still expanding
10Standard

Standards NXS-GRX follows

STDOECD/JRC Handbook on Constructing Composite IndicatorsThe ten construction steps NXS-GRX follows STDJRC COIN statistical audit practiceCorrelation structure, coherence, Monte Carlo uncertainty and rank stability STDISO 31000 and IEC 31010Risk-management vocabulary and assessment techniques (referenced; no conformance claimed) STDSendai Framework for Disaster Risk ReductionTargets A–G and 38 indicators as crosswalk keys STDUNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025)Canonical hazard keys through Hazard Standard crosswalks STDIRDR peril classificationCrosswalk for loss databases STDSDMX (ISO 17369)Observation keys, code lists and statistical exchange STDUN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics and the NQAF manualQuality dimensions (relevance, accuracy, timeliness, accessibility, coherence) STDW3C PROV-O, DCAT, STAC, OGC API and FAIRProvenance, catalogue, geospatial and access standards

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Stato

La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.

Che cosa non è NXS-GRX

NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.

Istituzioni e fonti

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.