The risk index landscape
What the world’s risk indices measure, how, and where they stop, so NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) can interoperate with them and close the gaps between them. Source series are read where licences admit and never re-weighted.
Риск множественных опасностей, бедствий и гуманитарный риск
INFORM Risk · INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models · WorldRiskIndex.
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10 entriesКонфликты, мир, нестабильность и управление
Fragile States Index · Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index · ACLED Conflict Index.
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7 entriesЭкономический, суверенный и финансовый риск
Country Risk Classification · Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) · Sovereign credit ratings.
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4 entriesКлимат, окружающая среда и природа
Environmental Performance Index · Central-bank network climate scenarios · Aqueduct water risk.
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4 entriesЗдоровье и продовольствие
Global Health Security Index · IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation · Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé.
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4 entriesТехнологический, кибер- и передовой риск
Global Cybersecurity Index · National Cyber Security Index · AI indices and incident monitors.
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3 entriesВосприятие и стратегическое прогнозирование
Global Risks Report · World Risk Poll · Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research.
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5 entriesРазвитие и устойчивость
Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index · SDG Index and Social Progress Index · Sendai Framework Monitor.
Открыто
What no index does yet
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied. Commercial providers are described by category. Indicator counts change between editions; the current methodology note of each index governs. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) relation: SOURCE (a published series NXS-GRX may read as a source where its licence admits, never re-weighted), CROSSWALK (used for validity checks and mapping), COMPLEMENT (a different object NXS-GRX does not reproduce).
| Разрыв | NXS-GRX design |
|---|---|
| No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure | Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar |
| Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled | Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite |
| Субнациональный охват скуден и несопоставим | ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity |
| Неопределённость редко сообщается; рейтингам придают слишком большое значение | 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables |
| Данные запаздывают на один-три года | Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams |
| Немногие индексы дают прогнозы или проходят ретроспективную проверку | Инструмент прогнозов с публикуемыми оценочными картами проверки |
| Сценарные прогнозы редки и только макроуровня | Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100 |
| Воспринимаемый и измеренный риск смешиваются | Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap |
| Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences | Происхождение данных на уровне записей, лицензионный контроль, публичный журнал исправлений |
| Машинный доступ слабый (выпуски в PDF и электронных таблицах) | API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases |
| Ограничения лицензий блокируют производное повторное использование | Лицензионный контроль для каждого источника; удержанные значения учитываются |
| Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states | Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped |
| Потенциал на бумаге принимают за результативность | Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events |
| Методы меняются и нарушают сопоставимость | Семантические версии, ретроспективно рассчитанные ряды, дайджесты для каждого выпуска |
| Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk | Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument |
| Нет общей таксономии между индексами | hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists |
| Средние значения скрывают тяжёлые хвосты | Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled |
Риск множественных опасностей, бедствий и гуманитарный риск
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INFORM Risk | EU Joint Research Centre with the IASC reference group | 191 countries | Annual with mid-year update | 3 dimensions, about 15 components, roughly 74 to 80 indicators. Arithmetic means to component level, geometric mean of hazard and exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity; 0–10 | Source series | No financial, cyber or systemic risk; no intervals; one to three year data lag |
| INFORM Severity, Climate Change, Warning and subnational models | EU Joint Research Centre and partners | Crises, projections, admin levels | Monthly to irregular | INFORM grammar applied to severity, projections and subnational units. INFORM method | Сопоставление | Subnational models are not mutually comparable and share no grid |
| WorldRiskIndex | NGO alliance with a university institute | 193 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | Exposure × vulnerability (susceptibility, coping, adaptation); more than 100 indicators. Geometric mean; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Population-driven exposure; no conflict hazard |
| Global Assessment Report and Global Risk Assessment Framework | UNDRR | Мир | About biennial | Thematic assessment; earlier probabilistic global risk model. Probabilistic loss modelling and narrative | Дополнение | No standing index or API; systemic risk described rather than measured |
| ThinkHazard! | World Bank GFDRR | Admin-2, global | Occasional | 11 hazards by intensity and frequency. Classification in four classes | Сопоставление | Hazard only; no vulnerability |
| Climate Risk Index | Germanwatch (NGO) | About 170 to 190 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 6 loss indicators. Weighted rank sum; single-year and 30-year windows | Сопоставление | Backward-looking; inherits loss-database reporting bias |
| ND-GAIN | University of Notre Dame | About 185 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | Vulnerability and readiness; 45 indicators. Arithmetic means; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Country level only; readiness bias toward high-income countries |
| States of Fragility | OECD | 170+ contexts screened | About biennial | 6 dimensions, about 50 indicators. Principal components and clustering into classes | Сопоставление | Classifies rather than measures; not predictive |
| Global Conflict Risk Index | EU Joint Research Centre | About 130 to 190 countries | Annual or semi-annual | About 24 structural variables. Logit models of conflict probability; 0–10 | Сопоставление | Structural only; no event nowcast |
Конфликты, мир, нестабильность и управление
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragile States Index | Fund for Peace (NGO) | 179 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 12 indicators in 4 groups. Content analysis, quantitative data and review; 0–120 | Сопоставление | Media-volume bias; reuse restricted |
| Global Peace Index and Global Terrorism Index | Institute for Economics and Peace (NGO) | About 163 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 23 indicators; 4 terrorism indicators. Banded weighted means; log-banded scores | Сопоставление | Contested weights; source-dataset dependency |
| ACLED Conflict Index | ACLED (NGO) | About 240 countries and territories | Annual and weekly | Deadliness, danger, diffusion, fragmentation. Rank-based severity categories | Source series | Licence limits redistribution |
| UCDP | Uppsala University | Global, geocoded events | Annual and monthly | Event data with best, low and high fatality estimates. Event coding; no composite | Source series | Threshold of 25 battle deaths for conflicts |
| V-Dem | University of Gothenburg | 202 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | More than 500 indicators, 5 high-level indices. Bayesian measurement model with credible intervals; 0–1 | Сопоставление | Expert subjectivity; one-year lag |
| Worldwide Governance Indicators | World Bank | About 214 economies | Годовой операционный цикл | 6 dimensions from about 35 sources. Unobserved components with standard errors | Source series | Perception-based; correlated source errors |
| Corruption Perceptions Index | Transparency International (NGO) | 180 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 13 expert and business sources. Standardised mean with confidence intervals; 0–100 | Сопоставление | No-derivatives licence constrains reuse |
| Global Organised Crime Index | GI-TOC (NGO) | 193 countries | Biennial | Criminal markets, actors and resilience. Expert assessment; 1–10 | Сопоставление | Expert-driven |
| Basel AML Index | Basel Institute on Governance (NGO) | About 160 to 200 jurisdictions | Годовой операционный цикл | 17 to 18 indicators in 5 domains. Weighted mean; 0–10 | Сопоставление | Depends on evaluation cycles |
| Bertelsmann Transformation Index and Ibrahim Index of African Governance | Основы | 137 and 54 countries | Biennial | Expert criteria; about 96 indicators. Expert scores; arithmetic means | Сопоставление | Partial coverage |
Экономический, суверенный и финансовый риск
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country Risk Classification | OECD (export credits arrangement) | About 200 countries | Three times a year | Model plus expert adjustment. Classes 0–7 | Сопоставление | Transfer and convertibility risk only; model unpublished |
| Debt sustainability frameworks (LIC-DSF, SRDSF) | МВФ (IMF) и Всемирный банк | Low-income and market-access countries | Per review | Thresholds, stress tests, fan charts. Mechanical signals plus judgement | Source series | Per-country, not a comparable index; NXS-GRX never reproduces the published signals |
| Sovereign credit ratings | Commercial rating agencies (category) | About 130 to 150 sovereigns | Ongoing | Committee scorecards. Letter grades | Дополнение | Paywalled; NXS-GRX is not a rating and uses no rating scale |
| Early-warning indicators and financial stress indices | BIS and central banks | 40+ economies | Daily to quarterly | Credit gaps, debt service, stress composites. Gaps, thresholds, portfolio weights | Source series | Advanced economies mostly |
| Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | Federal Reserve Bank of New York | Мир | Monthly | 27 variables. Principal components; standard deviations | Сопоставление | No country decomposition |
| Logistics Performance Index | World Bank | 139 countries | Every 3 to 5 years | 6 dimensions plus tracking KPIs. Survey; 1–5 | Сопоставление | Infrequent; perception-based |
| Economic complexity | University research centres | About 130 to 145 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | Export diversity and ubiquity. Eigenvector method | Сопоставление | Structural signal, not risk |
Климат, окружающая среда и природа
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Environmental Performance Index | Yale and Columbia universities | 180 countries | About biennial | 58 indicators, 11 issue categories. Weighted mean; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Performance, not risk |
| Central-bank network climate scenarios | Network of central banks and supervisors | Global, regional, country | About annual | 6 to 7 scenario families. Integrated assessment and macro models | Source series | Pathways, not an index; physical risk understated |
| Aqueduct water risk | World Resources Institute (NGO) | Global sub-basins | Occasional | 13 indicators. Weighted; 0–5 with projections | Source series | Coarse units; ageing layers |
| Biodiversity intactness, ENCORE and the Ocean Health Index | Museums, UNEP-WCMC, universities | Global grid, sectors, EEZs | Varies | Models, dependency matrices, goals. Statistical models; materiality ratings; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Weak link to local ground truth |
Здоровье и продовольствие
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Health Security Index | NGO and university partnership | 195 стран | 2019 and 2021 | 6 categories, 37 indicators. Weighted mean; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Measured capacity on paper; not updated since 2021 |
| IHR self-assessment (SPAR) and Joint External Evaluation | WHO | 196 States Parties | Annual and ad hoc | 15 capacities; 19 technical areas. Self and external scoring; 1–5 | Source series | Self-reporting bias |
| Integrated Food Security Phase Classification and Cadre Harmonisé | Multi-agency technical partnership | Assessed areas | Per country cycle | Phases 1–5, current and projected. Evidence convergence by technical working groups | Source series | Limited to assessed areas |
| Global Hunger Index and Global Report on Food Crises | NGOs; FAO, WFP and EU network | About 50 to 136 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 4 indicators; headcounts. Standardised sum; aggregation | Сопоставление | Three-year lag; aggregation rather than scoring |
Технологический, кибер- и передовой риск
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Cybersecurity Index | ITU | 194 countries | About biennial | 5 pillars. Questionnaire; 5 tiers since 2024 | Source series | Measures commitment, not threat or incidents |
| National Cyber Security Index | Government-backed academy | 170+ countries | Rolling | 12 capacities, 46 indicators. Evidence-checked; 0–100 | Сопоставление | Capacity only |
| AI indices and incident monitors | Universities, OECD and NGOs | Varies | Annual or continuous | Descriptive indicators, responsible-AI scores, incident data. Mixed | Сопоставление | No probabilistic national AI-risk index exists |
| Global catastrophic risk assessments | University centres and foundations | Мир | Irregular | Narrative and elicited probabilities. Expert elicitation | Дополнение | No standardised country index |
Восприятие и стратегическое прогнозирование
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Risks Report | World Economic Forum (not-for-profit foundation) | Мир | Годовой операционный цикл | Survey of experts rating about 33 global risks over 2- and 10-year horizons. Perception survey | Сопоставление | Perception only; no probabilities; respondent pool skewed |
| World Risk Poll | Lloyd’s Register Foundation (charity) | About 142 countries | Biennial | Experienced and perceived risk. Household poll | Сопоставление | Survey cadence |
| Corporate risk barometers and reinsurer research | Commercial insurers and reinsurers (category) | Мир | Годовой операционный цикл | Surveys and loss databases. Perception and proprietary loss data | Дополнение | Proprietary inputs |
Развитие и устойчивость
| Индекс | Steward | Охват | Периодичность | Structure and method | Relation | Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Human Development Index and Multidimensional Poverty Index | UNDP with OPHI | 193 and about 110 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 3 dimensions; 10 indicators. Geometric mean; Alkire–Foster | Source series | Survey lags |
| SDG Index and Social Progress Index | UN SDSN; a non-profit | About 167 to 170 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 17 goals; 12 components. Arithmetic means; PCA weights | Сопоставление | Outcome dashboards, not risk |
| Sendai Framework Monitor | UNDRR | Reporting countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 38 indicators under 7 targets. National self-reporting | Source series | Uneven reporting |
| Global Innovation Index | WIPO | About 133 countries | Годовой операционный цикл | 7 pillars, about 80 indicators. Arithmetic means with a published statistical audit | Сопоставление | Innovation, not risk; a model of audit transparency |
| Business Ready (B-READY) | World Bank | 101 economies (2025), expanding | Годовой операционный цикл | 3 pillars over 10 topics. Expert questionnaires and firm surveys; 0–100 | Source series | Coverage still expanding |
Standards NXS-GRX follows
Steward of an index listed here?
Tell us if a description is wrong or out of date; corrections are made in the open.
Статус
Методология, структура и определения The Global Risks Index представляют собой предварительный рабочий проект (2026), распространяемый для рассмотрения и комментариев, а не для применения. Значения не появляются, пока выпуск не будет опубликован на основе управляемого среза доказательной базы; тогда значения сопровождаются интервалами, классами, источниками и порядком их исправления. Симуляторы применяют опубликованные методы к выбранным вами числам и никогда не показывают значение NXS-GRX.
Чем NXS-GRX не является
NXS-GRX является исследовательской и риск-аналитической информацией. Это не кредитный и не ESG-рейтинг, и в нём не используется рейтинговая шкала; это не эталон для финансовых инструментов, не официальная статистика, не экстренное предупреждение или официальная классификация и не консультация. Его нельзя использовать для оценки физических лиц. Классы риска являются диапазонами на опубликованной шкале и никогда не являются рейтингами стран или людей.
Учреждения и источники
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Каждое значение сопровождается указанием его источников, которые сохраняют собственные лицензии. Внешние названия приводятся только для обеспечения совместимости. Тексты, подготовленные Nexus, предполагается публиковать по лицензии CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.