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Глобальный индекс рисков (Global Risks Index)

INT

Intelligence Hub

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings

Observatory Set up a watchlist

Сводка

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place’s own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly

Сигнал для рассмотрения

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Граф
01Detect
02Проверить
03Оценивать
04Передать

100%
Хронология
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Шаги
  1. Anomaly detected

    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream

    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    Реестр лицензийПроисхождение (W3C PROV)
  3. Analyst review approval

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  4. Information for competent authorities

    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) gateway
  5. Logged and watched

    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
Артефакты
Артефакт Задание Кто Этап
Signal candidate Anomaly detected Pulse nowcast Detect
Source check Sources verified Хранители данных Проверить
Assessment Analyst review Аналитики Оценивать
Handoff record Information for competent authorities Секретариат Передать
Verification record Logged and watched Pulse nowcast Передать
ГотовоВыполняетсяОжидает утвержденияВ очередиТочка утвержденияЗадача матрицыВы здесь
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens

Сканирование горизонта и записка

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Граф
01Scan
02Scan
03Оценивать
04Сводка
05Сводка

100%
Хронология
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Шаги
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    Сеть зависимостей
  5. Экспертное рецензирование утверждение

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
Артефакты
Артефакт Задание Кто Этап
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Аналитики Оценивать
Link map Systemic links Аналитики Оценивать
Review record Экспертное рецензирование Reviewers Сводка
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team Сводка
ГотовоВыполняетсяОжидает утвержденияВ очередиТочка утвержденияЗадача матрицыВы здесь
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

Верификация

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted

Протестировать и валидировать модель

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

Граф
01Отправить
02Проверка
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
Хронология
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Шаги
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Карточка модели

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. Точка утверждения утверждение

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
Артефакты
Артефакт Задание Кто Этап
Version record Model version submitted Вы Отправить
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine Проверка
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine Проверка
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine Проверка
Карточка модели Карточка модели Вы Document
Approval record Точка утверждения Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
ГотовоВыполняетсяОжидает утвержденияQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved

Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

Граф
01Set up
02Sense
03Рецензирование
04Реализовать

100%
Хронология
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Шаги
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    Реестр PostgreSQL (защита на уровне строк)
Артефакты
Артефакт Задание Кто Этап
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds Вы Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst Рецензирование
Alert Route the alert Alert router Реализовать
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst Реализовать
ГотовоВыполняетсяОжидает утвержденияВ очередиТочка утвержденияЗадача матрицыВы здесь
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet

01Правила

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02Маршруты

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

Сигнал для рассмотрения

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

Мониторинг со списками наблюдения и оповещениями

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

Сканирование горизонта и записка

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

Запросить пакет сценариев

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

03Гуманитарные данные

What the Humanitarian Data Exchange feed holds

194 countries synced on 2026-10-23 from 226 datasets whose licence passes the gate; 147 resources were left out for their licence. Each country’s page shows the values, with date, provider and licence. Source observations for review, not warnings and not index values.

Тема Страны With ADM1 figures With ADM2 figures Newest reference date
Население 109 98 59 2025-12-31
Люди, нуждающиеся в помощи 22 6 16 2026-12-31
Доля бедного населения 107 99 0 2024-12-31
Принятые беженцы 171 0 0 2025-12-31
Беженцы за рубежом 186 0 0 2025-12-31
Осадки относительно многолетней нормы 112 109 44 2026-10-10
Humanitarian funding 107 0 0 2026-08-31
Цены на продовольствие на рынках 85 0 0 2026-10-14

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

Контакты

Статус

Методология, структура и определения The Global Risks Index представляют собой предварительный рабочий проект (2026), распространяемый для рассмотрения и комментариев, а не для применения. Значения не появляются, пока выпуск не будет опубликован на основе управляемого среза доказательной базы; тогда значения сопровождаются интервалами, классами, источниками и порядком их исправления. Симуляторы применяют опубликованные методы к выбранным вами числам и никогда не показывают значение NXS-GRX.

Чем NXS-GRX не является

NXS-GRX является исследовательской и риск-аналитической информацией. Это не кредитный и не ESG-рейтинг, и в нём не используется рейтинговая шкала; это не эталон для финансовых инструментов, не официальная статистика, не экстренное предупреждение или официальная классификация и не консультация. Его нельзя использовать для оценки физических лиц. Классы риска являются диапазонами на опубликованной шкале и никогда не являются рейтингами стран или людей.

Учреждения и источники

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Каждое значение сопровождается указанием его источников, которые сохраняют собственные лицензии. Внешние названия приводятся только для обеспечения совместимости. Тексты, подготовленные Nexus, предполагается публиковать по лицензии CC BY 4.0.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.