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Global Risks Index

INT

इंटेलिजेंस हब

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings

Observatory Set up a watchlist

संक्षेप

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place’s own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly

समीक्षा के लिए एक संकेत

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

ग्राफ़
01Detect
02सत्यापित करें
03Assess
04सौंपें

100%
समयरेखा
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

चरण
  1. Anomaly detected

    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream

    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    लाइसेंस रजिस्टरउद्गम (W3C PROV)
  3. Analyst review approval

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    PostgreSQL खाता-बही (पंक्ति-स्तरीय सुरक्षा)
  4. Information for competent authorities

    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) gateway
  5. Logged and watched

    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
परिणाम
कृति कार्य कौन चरण
Signal candidate Anomaly detected Pulse nowcast Detect
Source check Sources verified डेटा संरक्षक सत्यापित करें
Assessment Analyst review Analysts Assess
Handoff record Information for competent authorities सचिवालय सौंपें
Verification record Logged and watched Pulse nowcast सौंपें
पूर्णप्रगति मेंअनुमोदन की प्रतीक्षा मेंकतार मेंअनुमोदन गेटमैट्रिक्स कार्यआप यहाँ हैं
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens

क्षितिज स्कैन और संक्षिप्त विवरण

In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

ग्राफ़
01Scan
02Scan
03Assess
04संक्षेप
05संक्षेप

100%
समयरेखा
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

चरण
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate

    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty

    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links

    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    निर्भरता नेटवर्क
  5. सहकर्मी समीक्षा स्वीकृति

    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    PostgreSQL खाता-बही (पंक्ति-स्तरीय सुरक्षा)
  6. Briefing issued

    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
परिणाम
कृति कार्य कौन चरण
Candidate list Scan sources NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Theme map Cluster and deduplicate NXS-GRX Intelligence Scan
Horizon matrix Likelihood and impact with uncertainty Analysts Assess
Link map Systemic links Analysts Assess
Review record सहकर्मी समीक्षा Reviewers संक्षेप
Horizon briefing Briefing issued Intelligence team संक्षेप
पूर्णप्रगति मेंअनुमोदन की प्रतीक्षा मेंकतार मेंअनुमोदन गेटमैट्रिक्स कार्यआप यहाँ हैं
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

सत्यापन

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted

किसी मॉडल का परीक्षण और सत्यापन करें

In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment

ग्राफ़
01जमा करें
02परीक्षण
03Document
04Approve
05Approve

100%
समयरेखा
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

चरण
  1. Model version submitted

    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest

    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark

    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model card

    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. अनुमोदन गेट स्वीकृति

    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL खाता-बही (पंक्ति-स्तरीय सुरक्षा)
  7. Promote to production

    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
परिणाम
कृति कार्य कौन चरण
Version record Model version submitted आप जमा करें
Backtest report Backtest Verification engine परीक्षण
Scorecard Out-of-sample scores Verification engine परीक्षण
Benchmark table Benchmark Verification engine परीक्षण
Model card Model card आप Document
Approval record अनुमोदन गेट Method stewards Approve
Release tag Promote to production NXS-GRX Platform Approve
पूर्णप्रगति मेंअनुमोदन की प्रतीक्षा मेंQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved

Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff

Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job

ग्राफ़
01Set up
02Sense
03समीक्षा
04उपलब्ध कराएँ

100%
समयरेखा
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

चरण
  1. Watchlist and thresholds

    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains

    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place’s own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update

    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval

    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    PostgreSQL खाता-बही (पंक्ति-स्तरीय सुरक्षा)
  5. Route the alert

    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority

    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    PostgreSQL खाता-बही (पंक्ति-स्तरीय सुरक्षा)
परिणाम
कृति कार्य कौन चरण
Watchlist Watchlist and thresholds आप Set up
Pulse readings Pulse nowcast Pulse nowcast Sense
Outlook readings Outlook update Outlook models Sense
Reviewed signal Analyst review Duty analyst समीक्षा
Alert Route the alert Alert router उपलब्ध कराएँ
Hand-over note Handoff to the authority Duty analyst उपलब्ध कराएँ
पूर्णप्रगति मेंअनुमोदन की प्रतीक्षा मेंकतार मेंअनुमोदन गेटमैट्रिक्स कार्यआप यहाँ हैं
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet

01Rules

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02यात्राएँ

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

समीक्षा के लिए एक संकेत

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

वॉचलिस्ट और अलर्ट से निगरानी करें

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

क्षितिज स्कैन और संक्षिप्त विवरण

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run NXS-GRX · Govern

परिदृश्य पैक का अनुरोध करें

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate.

Open the run

03मानवीय डेटा

What the Humanitarian Data Exchange feed holds

194 countries synced on 2026-10-23 from 226 datasets whose licence passes the gate; 147 resources were left out for their licence. Each country’s page shows the values, with date, provider and licence. Source observations for review, not warnings and not index values.

विषय देश With ADM1 figures With ADM2 figures Newest reference date
जनसंख्या 109 98 59 2025-12-31
ज़रूरतमंद लोग 22 6 16 2026-12-31
गरीबी में लोगों की संख्या 107 99 0 2024-12-31
मेज़बानी किए गए शरणार्थी 171 0 0 2025-12-31
विदेश में शरणार्थी 186 0 0 2025-12-31
दीर्घकालिक औसत की तुलना में वर्षा 112 109 44 2026-10-10
Humanitarian funding 107 0 0 2026-08-31
बाज़ारों में खाद्य मूल्य 85 0 0 2026-10-14

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

संपर्क

स्थिति

The Global Risks Index की पद्धति, संरचना और परिभाषाएँ एक प्रारंभिक कार्यकारी मसौदा (2026) हैं, जो समीक्षा और टिप्पणी के लिए परिचालित हैं, कार्यान्वयन के लिए नहीं। किसी शासित साक्ष्य कटौती से संस्करण जारी होने तक कोई मान प्रकट नहीं होता; तब मानों के साथ अंतराल, वर्ग, स्रोत और उनका सुधार मार्ग होता है। सिम्युलेटर आपके चुने हुए अंकों पर प्रकाशित पद्धतियाँ चलाते हैं और कभी कोई NXS-GRX मान नहीं दिखाते।

NXS-GRX क्या नहीं है

NXS-GRX अनुसंधान और जोखिम-विश्लेषण की सूचना है। यह क्रेडिट या ESG रेटिंग नहीं है और किसी रेटिंग पैमाने का उपयोग नहीं करता। यह वित्तीय लिखतों का बेंचमार्क नहीं है, आधिकारिक सांख्यिकी नहीं है, आपातकालीन चेतावनी या आधिकारिक वर्गीकरण नहीं है और सलाह नहीं है। इसका उपयोग प्राकृतिक व्यक्तियों के मूल्यांकन के लिए नहीं किया जाना चाहिए। जोखिम वर्ग प्रकाशित पैमाने के बैंड हैं, देशों या व्यक्तियों की रैंकिंग कभी नहीं।

संस्थान और स्रोत

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

प्रत्येक मान के साथ उसके स्रोतों का श्रेय होता है, जो अपने लाइसेंस बनाए रखते हैं। बाहरी नाम केवल अंतरसंचालनीयता के लिए उद्धृत किए गए हैं। Nexus द्वारा लिखित पाठ जारी होने पर CC BY 4.0 के अंतर्गत होना अभिप्रेत है।

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.