Foundry
The Global Risks Index
INT

Intelligence Hub

Pulse · Outlook · Horizon · analyst-reviewed briefings
ObservatorySet up a watchlist

Brief

No brief yet

The daily brief is issued from analyst-reviewed signals once Pulse and Outlook are live. Each item names its sources and the authority that decides.

Signals

No signals yet

Pulse readings become signals for review when they cross a place's own historical range. Nothing here is a warning; every handoff names the authority that decides.

on: pulse anomaly
A signal for review
Waiting for approvalTriggered by Pulse nowcast5 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job
Graph
01Detect
02Verify
03Assess
04Hand off
100%
Timeline
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Anomaly detectedPulse nowcast7 d
Sources verifiedData stewards1 d
Analyst reviewAnalysts2 d
Information for competent authoritiesSecretariat1 d
Logged and watchedPulse nowcastongoing

End to end on the longest path: about 12.3 d of proposed target service levels, before the jobs that run with no fixed end. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Anomaly detected
    Detect · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Standardised anomaly vs own history
    Pulse nowcast
  2. Sources verified matrix · per stream
    Verify · Data stewards · 1 day
    Each stream checked · Licence admits use
    Licence registerProvenance (W3C PROV)
  3. Analyst review approval
    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Context, couplings, confidence
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  4. Information for competent authorities
    Hand off · Secretariat · 1 day
    Shared for review, not a warning
    NXS-GRX gateway
  5. Logged and watched
    Hand off · Pulse nowcast · ongoing
    Outcome tracked for verification
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)Pulse nowcast
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Signal candidateAnomaly detectedPulse nowcastDetect
Source checkSources verifiedData stewardsVerify
AssessmentAnalyst reviewAnalystsAssess
Handoff recordInformation for competent authoritiesSecretariatHand off
Verification recordLogged and watchedPulse nowcastHand off
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Horizon

No horizon cycle yet

Each cycle scans admitted sources, scores emerging risks for likelihood and impact with ranges, and links them to the domains they would couple into.

on: horizon cycle opens
Horizon scan and brief
In progressTriggered by Intelligence team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job
Graph
01Scan
02Scan
03Assess
04Brief
05Brief
100%
Timeline
Job0 d5 d10 d15 dTarget
Scan sourcesNXS-GRX Intelligence7 d
Cluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX Intelligence1 d
Likelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalysts3 d
Systemic linksAnalysts2 d
Peer reviewReviewers5 d
Briefing issuedIntelligence team1 d

End to end on the longest path: about 17 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Scan sources matrix · sources
    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · weekly
    Admitted sources and literature · Expert elicitation
    Horizon scanningLicence register
  2. Cluster and deduplicate
    Scan · NXS-GRX Intelligence · 1 day
    Themes and weak signals
    Horizon scanning
  3. Likelihood and impact with uncertainty
    Assess · Analysts · 3 days
    Structured elicitation · Ranges, not points
    Horizon scanningMonte Carlo engine
  4. Systemic links
    Assess · Analysts · 2 days
    Coupling to existing domains
    Dependency network
  5. Peer review approval
    Brief · Reviewers · 5 days
    Challenge session · Disposition
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  6. Briefing issued
    Brief · Intelligence team · 1 day
    Briefing with sources and limits
    Nexus Reports
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Candidate listScan sourcesNXS-GRX IntelligenceScan
Theme mapCluster and deduplicateNXS-GRX IntelligenceScan
Horizon matrixLikelihood and impact with uncertaintyAnalystsAssess
Link mapSystemic linksAnalystsAssess
Review recordPeer reviewReviewersBrief
Horizon briefingBriefing issuedIntelligence teamBrief
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Outlooks

No outlooks yet

Outlooks give calibrated probabilities at 1, 3, 12 and 36 months for defined events, each with its verification scorecard.

Verification

No scorecards yet

Every Outlook model version publishes its reliability diagram, Brier score, skill and ROC area on held-out cases before it is used.

on: model version submitted
Test and validate a model
In progressTriggered by Model owner7 jobs1 approval gate11 checks1 deployment
Graph
01Submit
02Test
03Document
04Approve
05Approve
100%
Timeline
Job0 d2 d4 d6 d8 d10 dTarget
Model version submittedYouinstant
BacktestVerification engine6 h
Out-of-sample scoresVerification engine2 h
BenchmarkVerification engine2 h
Model cardYou1 d
Approval gateMethod stewards10 d
Promote to productionNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 11.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Model version submitted
    Submit · You · instant
    Code, data and seed pinned · Intended use declared
    Model LabPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  2. Backtest
    Test · Verification engine · 6 hours
    Rolling-origin backtest · Hindcasts over the archive
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  3. Out-of-sample scores
    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Brier and CRPS · Reliability and ROC area
    Verification engine
  4. Benchmark
    Test · Verification engine · 2 hours
    Against established indices and naive baselines
    Verification engineindicator standard
  5. Model card
    Document · You · 1 day
    Intended use and limits · Data, method and scores
    Replication packs
  6. Approval gate approval
    Approve · Method stewards · 10 days
    Disposition recorded
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  7. Promote to production
    Approve · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
    Version pinned in production · Rollback kept
    Model LabPublic cut API
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
Version recordModel version submittedYouSubmit
Backtest reportBacktestVerification engineTest
ScorecardOut-of-sample scoresVerification engineTest
Benchmark tableBenchmarkVerification engineTest
Model cardModel cardYouDocument
Approval recordApproval gateMethod stewardsApprove
Release tagPromote to productionNXS-GRX PlatformApprove
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateTest jobDeploymentYou are here
Every model version is backtested, scored out of sample, compared with established indices and documented in a model card before use. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

Workbench

on: watchlist saved
Analyst workbench: watchlist to handoff
Waiting for approvalTriggered by Monitoring team6 jobs1 approval gate1 matrix job
Graph
01Set up
02Sense
03Review
04Deliver
100%
Timeline
Job0 d2 d4 d6 dTarget
Watchlist and thresholdsYouinstant
Pulse nowcastPulse nowcast7 d
Outlook updateOutlook models7 d
Analyst reviewDuty analyst6 h
Route the alertAlert routerinstant
Handoff to the authorityDuty analyst2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 7.3 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps
  1. Watchlist and thresholds
    Set up · You · self-serve
    Entities and domains · Thresholds and channels
    Alert router
  2. Pulse nowcast matrix · entities × domains
    Sense · Pulse nowcast · weekly
    Anomaly against each place's own history
    Pulse nowcastTested model kernels
  3. Outlook update
    Sense · Outlook models · weekly
    Calibrated probabilities refreshed
    Verification engineMonte Carlo engine
  4. Analyst review approval
    Review · Duty analyst · 6 hours
    Signal checked against sources · Context added
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
  5. Route the alert
    Deliver · Alert router · < 5 ms
    Email, webhook or dashboard · Never framed as a warning
    Alert routerWebhooks and streaming
  6. Handoff to the authority
    Deliver · Duty analyst · 2 hours
    Names the authority that decides
    PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Artifacts
ArtifactJobWhoStage
WatchlistWatchlist and thresholdsYouSet up
Pulse readingsPulse nowcastPulse nowcastSense
Outlook readingsOutlook updateOutlook modelsSense
Reviewed signalAnalyst reviewDuty analystReview
AlertRoute the alertAlert routerDeliver
Handoff noteHandoff to the authorityDuty analystDeliver
DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobYou are here
Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
Signals are information for review, not warnings · every handoff names the authority that decidesNot live yet
01Rules

How intelligence is issued

Signals, not warnings

A signal is information for review. Official warnings come from the authorities that issue them.

Reviewed before it reaches you

Every signal passes an analyst gate; the reviewer and the sources are recorded.

Handoff names the authority

Where action may be needed, the handoff names the authority that decides.

Verified in public

Every Outlook model version publishes reliability, Brier score, skill and ROC area.

02Journeys

Intelligence journeys

NXS-GRX · Govern

A signal for review

How a weekly anomaly becomes a signal for review by competent authorities, never a public warning. 5 jobs · 1 gate

Open the runNXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

Monitor with watchlists and alerts

Watch countries, areas, sites or domains: Pulse nowcasts and outlook changes become signals, reviewed by an analyst before anything reaches you. 6 jobs · 1 gate

Open the runNXS-GRX Intelligence · Monitor

Horizon scan and brief

Emerging risks found, scored for likelihood and impact with uncertainty, and turned into a briefing after review. 6 jobs · 1 gate

Open the runNXS-GRX · Govern

Request a scenario pack

Pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100 and structured stress tests for planning and supervisory exercises. 5 jobs · 1 gate

Open the run

Bring intelligence to your team

Watchlists, briefings and outlooks are agreed with the Secretariat.

Contact

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.