GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)

01Index

What NXS-GRX is

The open, multi-domain index family that reads hazard, vulnerability, macro-financial fragility, coping capacity and systemic coupling for every country, with intervals, sources and corrections on every value.

A family of indices, not one monolithic score

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) publishes twenty domain indices, four pillar indices, a composite and six instruments. The composite never appears without every pillar and domain beside it, and no independent dimension is collapsed silently.

Classes with intervals, never league tables

Every value carries a 90% interval from Monte Carlo analysis over normalisation, weights, imputation and aggregation. Countries are placed in risk classes with a stated class probability; pages list countries by name or code, never by value.

No data is not zero

A missing input is shown as missing, an imputed input is flagged, and a value is withheld when coverage falls below the method's minimum. An empty profile, an unavailable source and an observed zero render differently.

Every value resolves to its source

Each value carries its source release, licence, retrieval time, method version and transformation chain (W3C PROV). A correction anywhere propagates to every dependent value and is logged publicly.

Measured, modelled and perceived are kept apart

Status glyphs separate observed, reported, estimated, inferred, forecast, simulated, scenario and expert input. Perception signals form their own instrument and are never blended into measured risk.

Systemic by construction

Standalone risk and coupling-adjusted risk are reported side by side, from typed dependency networks across trade, finance, energy, food, infrastructure and information.

Licence-gated and reproducible

A source enters a public value only when its licence admits that use; withheld values are counted, not hidden. Methods, code paths, seeds and digests are published per release so any value can be recomputed.

Information, not authority

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice, and it never decides for an institution.

02Board

The world board

Composite, coupled composite and the four pillars for the world, with change, interval, class probability and trend, and the countries that moved most.

Instrument	Value	Change	Change %	90% interval	Class · probability
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI	—	—	—	—	—
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL	—	—	—	—	—
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE	—	—	—	—	—
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL	—	—	—	—	—
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF	—	—	—	—	—
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC	—	—	—	—	—

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

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Open the screener Global series

03Frontier

Why a new index

Established indices each read part of risk well. None reads all of it on one grammar with uncertainty, systemic coupling, forecasts, scenarios and provenance on every value.

Gap in the current landscape	What NXS-GRX does
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure	Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled	Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite
Subnational coverage is thin and not comparable	ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity
Uncertainty is rarely reported; ranks are over-read	90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables
Data lags one to three years	Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams
Few indices forecast or are back-tested	Outlook instrument with published verification scorecards
Scenario projections are rare and macro-only	Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Perceived and measured risk are blurred	Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences	Record-level provenance, licence gate, public correction log
Machine access is weak (PDF and spreadsheet releases)	API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases
Licence restrictions block derived reuse	Per-source licence gate; withheld values counted
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states	Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped
Capacity on paper is mistaken for performance	Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events
Methods change and break comparability	Semantic versions, back-cast series, digests per release
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk	Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument
No shared taxonomy across indices	hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists
Means hide fat tails	Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled

Read the landscape

04Pipeline

From source to profile

Indicators become sub-indices, twenty domain indices, four pillars and the composite; seven instruments read the same evidence for different questions.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes

Graph

01Sources

02Harmonise

03Indicators

04Sub-indices

05Domains

06Pillars

07Composite and instruments

08Outputs

100%

List

Event streams
SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
208 registered sources
SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
Scenario families
SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
Surveys and elicitation
SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
Structured expert elicitation and public surveys, kept apart from measured risk.
Dependency network
NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
Trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information links.
Harmonised series
HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
451 indicators
IND · IND · Indicator Standard
Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
86 sub-indices
SUB · SUB · normalised
Normalised, weighted and aggregated components inside each domain.
20 domain indices
IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
Twenty domain indices with Monte Carlo intervals and sensitivity.
Systemic coupling score
COUPLING · COUPLING · S
Contagion on the dependency network: DebtRank, clearing and threshold cascades.
Hazard and threat exposure
PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
Human and systems vulnerability
PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
Macro-financial and structural fragility
PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
Pulse
INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
Nowcast anomaly against each country's own history.
Outlook
INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
Calibrated event probabilities with verification scorecards.
Tail
INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
Pathways
INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
Fan charts under named scenario families.
Perception
INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
Perceived severity and the perception gap.
NXS-GRX Composite Risk
COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
195 country profiles
PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
Every domain, pillar and instrument per country, never ranked.
54 series indices
SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
Specialised indices from the same domain indices.
API, tiles and bulk files
ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
NXS-GRX Coupled Risk
COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it

Not runIn progressDone

FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it.

05Journeys

Every action is a run you can follow

Build, model, test, deploy, scale and monitor: each journey names who acts at each job, the technology it runs on, the checks it must pass and the gates where it waits for review.

on: studio project created

Build a custom index in Index Studio

In progressTriggered by You9 jobs2 approval gates2 matrix jobs5 checks1 deployment

Graph

01Scope

02Scope

03Data

04Data

05Construct

06Construct

07Test

08Test

09Ship

100%

Timeline

Job0 d1 d2 d3 d4 d5 dTarget

Define scope and questionYouinstant

Select indicatorsYouinstant

Licence and coverage gateNXS-GRX run serviceinstant

Harmonise and imputeNXS-GRX run service1 h

Normalise, weight and aggregateYouinstant

Uncertainty: 1,000 drawsMonte Carlo engine1 h

Validation suiteNXS-GRX run service1 h

Method reviewIndex editors5 d

Publish to your tenantNXS-GRX Platforminstant

End to end on the longest path: about 5.1 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

Steps

Define scope and question
Scope · You · instant
Entities: countries, ADM areas, sites or assets · Question and decision the index serves · Risk-chain components to cover
Index Studio
Select indicators
Scope · You · self-serve
Search 451 indicator definitions · Add your own indicators · Polarity and unit checked
Index Studioindicator standard
Licence and coverage gate approval
Data · NXS-GRX run service · automatic
Each input's licence checked for the use · Coverage per entity measured · Gaps flagged, never zero-filled
Licence registerPostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Harmonise and impute matrix · indicators × entities
Data · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
Units and periods aligned · Flagged imputation only at indicator level
NXS-GRX run serviceindicator standard
Normalise, weight and aggregate
Construct · You · self-serve
Normalisation per indicator · Expert or statistical weights · Geometric, arithmetic or penalised aggregation
Index StudioTested model kernels
Uncertainty: 1,000 draws matrix · 1,000 draws
Construct · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
Weights, normalisation and imputation varied · 90% intervals and class probabilities
Monte Carlo engine
Validation suite
Test · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
Internal coherence · Sensitivity (Sobol) · Correlation with established indices · Leave-one-out stability
Verification engineTested model kernels
Method review approval
Test · Index editors · 5 days
Method and tests reviewed · Disposition recorded
PostgreSQL ledger (row-level security)
Publish to your tenant
Ship · NXS-GRX Platform · instant
API endpoint and tiles · Dashboard and embeds · Model card
Private tenant (row-level security)Public cut APIVector tiles

Artifacts

Artifact	Job	Who	Stage
Studio project	Define scope and question	You	Scope
Indicator set	Select indicators	You	Scope
Coverage report	Licence and coverage gate	NXS-GRX run service	Data
Harmonised panel	Harmonise and impute	NXS-GRX run service	Data
Method record	Normalise, weight and aggregate	You	Construct
Draws file with seed	Uncertainty: 1,000 draws	Monte Carlo engine	Construct
Validation report	Validation suite	NXS-GRX run service	Test
Review note	Method review	Index editors	Test
Index endpoint	Publish to your tenant	NXS-GRX Platform	Ship
Model card	Publish to your tenant	NXS-GRX Platform	Ship

DoneIn progressWaiting for approvalQueuedApproval gateMatrix jobTest jobDeploymentYou are here

Compose an index for a portfolio, sector, city or supply chain on the Indicator Standard grammar, with the same uncertainty, tests and provenance as NXS-GRX itself. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is an illustration, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.

All journeys The platform

06Composite

Four pillars, one composite, never alone

Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

HTE

Hazard and threat exposure

What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way? 5 domain indices.

Indices VUL

Human and systems vulnerability

How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives? 8 domain indices.

Indices MSF

Macro-financial and structural fragility

How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis? 5 domain indices.

Indices LCC

Lack of coping and adaptive capacity

Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt? 2 domain indices.

Indices

FIG 3 · Simulator: four pillars to the composite and coupled composite

Pillars (0 to 10)

HTE · Hazard and threat exposure4.2

VUL · Human and systems vulnerability5.1

MSF · Macro-financial and structural fragility3.6

LCC · Lack of coping and adaptive capacity4.8

Coupling and uncertainty

Systemic coupling score S0.4

Coupling multiplier κ0.25

Input uncertainty (sd)0.4

–

runs in your browser

Simulator: Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼ with each pillar floored at 0.1; Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S). Draws vary weights, aggregation and inputs. The positions are starting points, not NXS-GRX values.

07Instruments

Seven instruments, seven questions

Annual edition with quarterly evidence cuts

Structural

What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ESTIMATEDMODELLED

Method Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releases

Pulse

What has changed since the last structural cut? OBSERVEDINFERRED

Method Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 months

Outlook

How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? FORECAST

Method Each annual edition

Pathways

How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? SCENARIOSIMULATED

Method Each annual edition, event-updated

Tail

What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? SIMULATEDMODELLED

Method Each annual edition, quarterly network refresh

Coupling

Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ESTIMATEDSIMULATED

Method Annual expert and public survey waves

Perception

Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? EXPERT INPUTREPORTED

Method

08Series

Global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic and regional

GLB

Global series

The world read as one interdependent system. 1 series.

Open GS

Global sector series

Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.

Open SR

Strategic systems series

Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.

Open XT

Exponential technology series

Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.

Open TH

Thematic series

Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.

Open RG

Regional series

The five UN M49 regions and their twenty-two sub-regions. 5 regions.

Open

09Reading

How to read NXS-GRX

Classes, not ranks

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).

The status of every value

Glyph	Status	Means
●	OBSERVED	Measured directly and published by the source
□	REPORTED	Reported or declared by a publisher, not independently measured
◆	ESTIMATED	Estimated or modelled by a stated method
▲	INFERRED	Inferred from related signals
◇	FORECAST	Probabilistic statement about a future period
◈	SIMULATED	Output of a simulation or stochastic event set
○	SCENARIO	Conditional on a named scenario, not a prediction
◎	EXPERT INPUT	Structured expert judgement

When there is no value

State	Means
`PUBLISHED`	Released in an edition with interval, class and sources
`NO_DATA`	No admitted input; not a zero
`INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE`	Coverage below the method minimum; value withheld
`WITHHELD`	An input's licence or the public-safe screen does not admit public display; counted
`DEGRADED`	Published with a stated quality limitation

10Clients

Who it serves

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context; Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps; Design pre-arranged finance questions

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals; Watch weekly signals for review; Read outlooks for anticipatory planning

Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools

Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context; Run scenario and tail analytics; Study parametric index design questions

Banks, asset managers and sovereign investors

Read sovereign and systemic context; Run climate pathway packs; Build portfolio postures

Regulators, supervisors and central banks

Design supervisory scenarios; Read systemic coupling; Replicate methods

Companies and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers; Watch chokepoints and pulse; Read country context

Civil society and NGOs

Target programmes; Use open profiles; Contribute local evidence

Universities and research

Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review

Media

Explain risk with intervals and classes; Embed charts and maps with attribution

Citizens and communities

Read the risk context of a place; Understand what the numbers mean and do not mean

Products and services

11Stewardship

Three independent stewards, three lenses

GCRI Canada leads the public-good Nexus Consortium as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization. GRF and GRA retain independent institutional mandates as consortium stewards. Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm's length and have no control over institutional governance, research, publications, national priorities or customer, sovereign and community data.

Technical truth

GCRI Canada

Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.

Public meaning

The Global Risks Forum

Public-good legitimacy, claims discipline, public-safe risk reporting and stakeholder formation.

Capital meaning

The Global Risks Alliance

Readiness literacy, capital-readability, insurance-readiness and disaster-risk-finance questions, without advice.

12Calendar

Evidence cuts

An edition is published after review, not to a calendar; the dates are evidence cuts.

2026-09-30Baseline Edition 2026evidence closeBaseline 2026-12-31Q1 2027 · State and agendaevidence cutQuarterly 2027-03-31Q2 2027 · Evidence and buildevidence cutQuarterly 2027-06-30Q3 2027 · Stress test and readinessevidence cutQuarterly 2027-09-30Q4 2027 · Annual flagshipevidence cutQuarterly