GLOBAL RISKS INDEX (GRIx)

Source observations from open grids, never index values: index values publish with the edition. Each figure names its source and opens its region or country.

People by region

Africa1.51 bn18.8%
Americas1.03 bn12.8%
Asia4.74 bn58.8%
Europe725.0 m9.0%
Oceania41.9 m0.5%

GHSL 2025, European Commission JRC (CC BY 4.0), summed over first-level units

People on land at or below 10 m

Africa72.9 m4.8% of the region
Americas60.9 m5.9% of the region
Asia595.2 m12.6% of the region
Europe37.8 m5.2% of the region
Oceania3.6 m8.5% of the region

GEBCO 2024 Grid (public domain) and GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); people on land at or below 10 m

Administrative units mapped, by level

ADM13,188195 countries
ADM248,764175 countries
ADM395,84674 countries
ADM493,96917 countries
ADM5699,5963 countries

geoBoundaries, each country and level on its own licence; share-alike layers kept separate

Countries with people on land at or below 10 m

Africa39of 54
Americas33of 35
Asia40of 48
Europe30of 44
Oceania14of 14

GEBCO 2024 Grid (public domain) and GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); people on land at or below 10 m

03Map

Global exposure map

People per H3 cell from the GHSL 2025 grid on a tilted world map. Scroll moves the page; Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, or + and −, zoom the map; drag to pan, right-drag to tilt and turn; select a country to open it.

FIG 2 · Population exposure by H3 cell, GHSL 2025Find a country

Loading the map

Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released

195 profiles. Colour shows facts, not risk: UN M49 region or the Nexus Reports country edition. Risk classes replace them here when an edition is released. Select a country to open its profile; drag to pan, use + and − to zoom; press a legend item to isolate it.

04Index

What NXS-GRX is

The open, multi-domain index family that reads hazard, vulnerability, macro-financial fragility, coping capacity and systemic coupling for every country, with intervals, sources and corrections on every value.

A family of indices, not one monolithic score

NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) publishes twenty domain indices, four pillar indices, a composite and six instruments. The composite never appears without every pillar and domain beside it, and no independent dimension is collapsed silently.

Classes with intervals, never league tables

Every value carries a 90% interval from Monte Carlo analysis over normalisation, weights, imputation and aggregation. Countries are placed in risk classes with a stated class probability; pages list countries by name or code, never by value.

No data is not zero

A missing input is shown as missing, an imputed input is flagged, and a value is withheld when coverage falls below the method's minimum. An empty profile, an unavailable source and an observed zero render differently.

Every value resolves to its source

Each value carries its source release, licence, retrieval time, method version and transformation chain (W3C PROV). A correction anywhere propagates to every dependent value and is logged publicly.

Measured, modelled and perceived are kept apart

Status glyphs separate observed, reported, estimated, inferred, forecast, simulated, scenario and expert input. Perception signals form their own instrument and are never blended into measured risk.

Systemic by construction

Standalone risk and coupling-adjusted risk are reported side by side, from typed dependency networks across trade, finance, energy, food, infrastructure and information.

Licence-gated and reproducible

A source enters a public value only when its licence admits that use; withheld values are counted, not hidden. Methods, code paths, seeds and digests are published per release so any value can be recomputed.

Information, not authority

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice, and it never decides for an institution.

05Board

The world board

Composite, coupled composite and the four pillars for the world, with change, interval, class probability and trend, and the countries that moved most.

Instrument	Value	Change	Change %	90% interval	Class · probability
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI	—	—	—	—	—
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL	—	—	—	—	—
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE	—	—	—	—	—
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL	—	—	—	—	—
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF	—	—	—	—	—
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC	—	—	—	—	—

No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.

Your watchlist

No countries on your watchlist. Add a country from its profile; the list stays in this browser.

Open the screener Global series

06Frontier

Why a new index

Established indices each read part of risk well. None reads all of it on one grammar with uncertainty, systemic coupling, forecasts, scenarios and provenance on every value.

established indices compared

As of 2026-10The landscape

gaps no index closes yet

As of 2026-10The landscape

domain indices in four pillars

Baseline Edition 2026Domain indices

451

indicator definitions

Baseline Edition 2026Indicators

195

country sites, every province

Baseline Edition 2026Countries

90%

interval on every value, 1,000 draws

Baseline Edition 2026Methodology

The gap matrix

What established indices missWhat NXS-GRX does

01
Gap
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure
NXS-GRX
Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
02
Gap
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled
NXS-GRX
Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
03
Gap
Subnational coverage is thin and not comparable
NXS-GRX
ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
04
Gap
Uncertainty is rarely reported; ranks are over-read
NXS-GRX
90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
05
Gap
Data lags one to three years
NXS-GRX
Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
06
Gap
Few indices forecast or are back-tested
NXS-GRX
Outlook instrument with published verification scorecards
Source: the landscape, 2026-10

All 17 gaps

07
Gap
Scenario projections are rare and macro-only
NXS-GRX
Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
08
Gap
Perceived and measured risk are blurred
NXS-GRX
Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
09
Gap
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences
NXS-GRX
Record-level provenance, licence gate, public correction log
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
10
Gap
Machine access is weak (PDF and spreadsheet releases)
NXS-GRX
API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
11
Gap
Licence restrictions block derived reuse
NXS-GRX
Per-source licence gate; withheld values counted
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
12
Gap
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states
NXS-GRX
Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
13
Gap
Capacity on paper is mistaken for performance
NXS-GRX
Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
14
Gap
Methods change and break comparability
NXS-GRX
Semantic versions, back-cast series, digests per release
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
15
Gap
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk
NXS-GRX
Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
16
Gap
No shared taxonomy across indices
NXS-GRX
hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists
Source: the landscape, 2026-10
17
Gap
Means hide fat tails
NXS-GRX
Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled
Source: the landscape, 2026-10

Families read, each with what it leaves open

Multi-hazard disaster and humanitarian risk9 indices read Conflict, peace, fragility and governance10 indices read Economic, sovereign and financial risk7 indices read Climate, environment and nature4 indices read Health and food4 indices read Technology, cyber and frontier risk4 indices read Perception and foresight3 indices read Development and resilience5 indices read

Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied.

Read the landscape The method

07How it works

How it works

Ten journeys from the registries: source to profile, a run, provenance, correction, the composite, a country profile, a release, the instruments, a data offer and API access. Select a step to trace it. Play runs only when you press it.

GRX · Source

From source to profile

Source to profile · In the Consortium · Index in the year · A run you follow · Provenance · Correction · Pillars and composite · Country profile · Edition release · Seven instruments · Data offer · API access

Licensed sources become indicators, domain indices, four pillars and the composite, then country profiles, series and the API.

01 Sources
1. 01205 registered sourcesRecord · The Global Risks IndexEvery source is registered with its licence.
2. 02Event streamsRecord · The Global Risks IndexAdmitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
3. 03Scenario familiesRecord · The Global Risks IndexSocio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
4. 04Surveys and elicitationRecord · The Global Risks IndexStructured expert elicitation and public surveys, kept apart from measured risk.
02 Harmonise
1. 05Harmonised seriesRecord · The Global Risks IndexSource series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists.
2. 06Dependency networkModel · The Global Risks IndexTrade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and information links.
03 Indicators
1. 08451 indicatorsRecord · The Global Risks IndexNative indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks.
04 Sub-indices
1. 1086 sub-indicesStep · The Global Risks IndexNormalised, weighted and aggregated components inside each domain.
05 Domains
1. 1220 domain indicesStep · The Global Risks IndexTwenty domain indices with Monte Carlo intervals and sensitivity.
06 Pillars
1. 09Systemic coupling scoreModel · The Global Risks IndexContagion on the dependency network: DebtRank, clearing and threshold cascades.
2. 13Hazard and threat exposureStep · The Global Risks IndexWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
3. 14Human and systems vulnerabilityStep · The Global Risks IndexHow susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
4. 15Macro-financial and structural fragilityStep · The Global Risks IndexHow much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
5. 16Lack of coping and adaptive capacityStep · The Global Risks IndexCan institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
07 Composite and instruments
1. 07PerceptionStep · The Global Risks IndexPerceived severity and the perception gap.
2. 11PulseStep · The Global Risks IndexNowcast anomaly against each country's own history.
3. 17OutlookStep · The Global Risks IndexCalibrated event probabilities with verification scorecards.
4. 18PathwaysStep · The Global Risks IndexFan charts under named scenario families.
5. 19TailStep · The Global Risks IndexExceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
6. 21NXS-GRX Composite RiskModel · The Global Risks IndexComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1.
08 Outputs
1. 2054 series indicesOutcome · The Global Risks IndexSpecialised indices from the same domain indices.
2. 22NXS-GRX Coupled RiskModel · The Global Risks IndexCoupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ =.
3. 23195 country profilesOutcome · The Global Risks IndexEvery domain, pillar and instrument per country, never ranked.
4. 24API, tiles and bulk filesOutcome · The Global Risks IndexPublic cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.

Methodology: source to profile · Indicators · Data and sourcesAn outline of how the work is designed to run; it does not report the status of any decision or record.

All journeys The method The platform

08Composite

Four pillars, one composite, never alone

Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices

HTE

Hazard and threat exposure

What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way? 5 domain indices.

Indices VUL

Human and systems vulnerability

How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives? 8 domain indices.

Indices MSF

Macro-financial and structural fragility

How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis? 5 domain indices.

Indices LCC

Lack of coping and adaptive capacity

Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt? 2 domain indices.

Indices

FIG 3 · Simulator: four pillars to the composite and coupled composite

Pillars (0 to 10)

HTE · Hazard and threat exposure4.2

VUL · Human and systems vulnerability5.1

MSF · Macro-financial and structural fragility3.6

LCC · Lack of coping and adaptive capacity4.8

Coupling and uncertainty

Systemic coupling score S0.4

Coupling multiplier κ0.25

Input uncertainty (sd)0.4

–

runs in your browser

Simulator: Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼ with each pillar floored at 0.1; Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S). Draws vary weights, aggregation and inputs. The positions are starting points, not NXS-GRX values.

09Instruments

Seven instruments, seven questions

Annual edition with quarterly evidence cuts

Structural

What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ESTIMATEDMODELLED

Method Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releases

Pulse

What has changed since the last structural cut? OBSERVEDINFERRED

Method Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 months

Outlook

How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? FORECAST

Method Each annual edition

Pathways

How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? SCENARIOSIMULATED

Method Each annual edition, event-updated

Tail

What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? SIMULATEDMODELLED

Method Each annual edition, quarterly network refresh

Coupling

Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ESTIMATEDSIMULATED

Method Annual expert and public survey waves

Perception

Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? EXPERT INPUTREPORTED

Method

10Indices

Twenty domain indices in four pillars

Each domain index has its own page with components, indicators, aggregation and intervals. Pick a pillar.

Hazard and threat exposure5Human and systems vulnerability8Macro-financial and structural fragility5Lack of coping and adaptive capacity2

HTE: What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?

HTE · HAZ

VUL: How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?

VUL · SOC

Socio-economic vulnerability index

5 components · 18 indicators VUL · DEM

Displacement pressure index

4 components · 10 indicators VUL · FOO

Food insecurity risk index

5 components · 20 indicators VUL · WAT

Water security risk index

4 components · 11 indicators VUL · HLT

Health security risk index

5 components · 25 indicators VUL · ENV

Environmental pressure index

5 components · 16 indicators VUL · ENE

Energy security risk index

5 components · 20 indicators VUL · INF

Infrastructure fragility index

5 components · 24 indicators

MSF: How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?

MSF · FIS

Fiscal and public debt risk index

7 components · 27 indicators MSF · FIN

Financial stability risk index

7 components · 28 indicators MSF · ECO

External dependence risk index

5 components · 22 indicators MSF · CYB

Cyber risk index

3 components · 12 indicators MSF · TEC

Technology concentration risk index

4 components · 10 indicators

LCC: Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?

LCC · CRS

Lack of coping capacity index

6 components · 26 indicators LCC · GOV

Governance weakness index

4 components · 16 indicators

All domain indices Screener

11Hazards

14 hazard domains

The Nexus Hazard Standard (Hazard Standard) sorts every hazard into fourteen domains and their families.

54 hazards · 8 families

Atmosphere and weather

41 hazards · 5 families

Water systems

18 hazards · 3 families

Ice and snow

47 hazards · 6 families

Solid Earth

17 hazards · 2 families

Space and near-Earth

39 hazards · 6 families

Land and ecosystems

58 hazards · 7 families

Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping

63 hazards · 9 families

Pollution and hazardous substances

124 hazards · 21 families

Health and biosecurity

110 hazards · 13 families

Built systems

48 hazards · 6 families

Information and cyber-physical systems

109 hazards · 16 families

Frontier and exponential technology

130 hazards · 14 families

Society, conflict and economy

47 hazards · 4 families

Systemic and compound events

All 905 hazards Risk types Taxonomy

12Series

Global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic and regional

GLB

Global series

The world read as one interdependent system. 1 series.

Open GS

Global sector series

Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.

Open SR

Strategic systems series

Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.

Open XT

Exponential technology series

Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.

Open TH

Thematic series

Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.

Open RG

Regional series

The five UN M49 regions and their twenty-two sub-regions. 5 regions.

Open

13Countries

195 country sites by region

One site per country with every province and district on terrain maps. Values publish with the edition.

Africa54country sitesEastern AfricaMiddle AfricaNorthern AfricaSouthern AfricaWestern AfricaOpen Africa Americas35country sitesCaribbeanCentral AmericaNorthern AmericaSouth AmericaOpen Americas Asia48country sitesCentral AsiaEastern AsiaSouth-eastern AsiaSouthern AsiaWestern AsiaOpen Asia Europe44country sitesEastern EuropeNorthern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeOpen Europe Oceania14country sitesAustralia and New ZealandMelanesiaMicronesiaPolynesiaOpen Oceania

All country profiles The planet Geodata

14Reading

How to read NXS-GRX

Classes, not ranks

Very low0.0 to < 2.0

Low2.0 to < 3.5

Medium3.5 to < 5.0

High5.0 to < 6.5

Very high6.5 to 10.0

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).

The status of every value

Glyph	Status	Means
●	OBSERVED	Measured directly and published by the source
□	REPORTED	Reported or declared by a publisher, not independently measured
◆	ESTIMATED	Estimated or modelled by a stated method
▲	INFERRED	Inferred from related signals
◇	FORECAST	Probabilistic statement about a future period
◈	SIMULATED	Output of a simulation or stochastic event set
○	SCENARIO	Conditional on a named scenario, not a prediction
◎	EXPERT INPUT	Structured expert judgement

When there is no value

State	Means
`PUBLISHED`	Released in an edition with interval, class and sources
`NO_DATA`	No admitted input; not a zero
`INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE`	Coverage below the method minimum; value withheld
`WITHHELD`	An input's licence or the public-safe screen does not admit public display; counted
`DEGRADED`	Published with a stated quality limitation

15Clients

Who it serves

Solutions by sector: what each user needs, the products that answer it and the journeys that deliver it.

GOV

Governments and national agencies

Prioritise prevention, plan subnationally and report on Sendai and SDG targets…

IFI

Multilaterals and development banks

Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience and protection…

UN system and humanitarian agencies

Compare needs with intervals, watch weekly signals and plan anticipatory…

REG

Central banks and supervisors

Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.

INS

Insurers and reinsurers

Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails and study parametric…

FIN

Banks and asset managers

Read sovereign and systemic context, run climate pathways and build portfolio…

CORP

Corporates and supply chains

Screen sites and suppliers, watch chokepoints and keep country context current.

GOV

Cities and infrastructure operators

Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment and…

ACA

Research and academia

Replicate every value, study and extend the methods, contribute data and review.

ACA

Developers and frontier-tech builders

Build applications, models and agents on open risk data with clear licences…

NGO

Civil society and NGOs

Target programmes with open profiles and contribute local evidence.

MED

Media and citizens

Explain risk with intervals and classes, and embed maps and charts with…

Products and services Take part

16Journeys

Tasks and journeys

Every task is a run you can follow: who acts at each job, the technology, the checks and the gates where it waits for review.

All journeys The platform

17Methods

Methods

The methods the indices and instruments run on, grouped in fabrics, each with its own page.

method fabrics

Baseline Edition 2026Methods

121

methods named across them

Baseline Edition 2026Methods

construction steps, OECD/JRC

Baseline Edition 2026Methodology

Universal mathematics and statistics14 methods Hazard science6 methods Exposure and asset intelligence3 methods Vulnerability, fragility and resilience5 methods Consequence and loss4 methods Catastrophe risk5 methods Networks, dependency and systemic risk5 methods Financial risk7 methods Insurance and reinsurance5 methods Markets, trade and supply chains5 methods Sovereign, macro and development5 methods Policy, regulation and governance4 methods Water risk6 methods Food, agriculture and fisheries5 methods Energy risk5 methods Health and epidemiology6 methods Climate, nature and biodiversity5 methods Critical infrastructure and industrial systems4 methods Cyber, AI and frontier technology5 methods Geopolitics, conflict and human security4 methods Projects, programmes and infrastructure investment5 methods Risk data4 methods Scientific assurance4 methods

All methods Methodology Index Lab

18Data

Data, licences and the API

Every source is registered with its licence. Only what a licence admits reaches a public value.

205

registered sources, each with its licence

Baseline Edition 2026Data and sources

115

sources the register admits for public display

Baseline Edition 2026Data and sources

501

crosswalks to source code lists

Baseline Edition 2026Indicators

Reuse

Open data

Downloads with source and licence on every row.

Licences

The licence gate

Nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.

Build

APIs and engines

Every endpoint, engine and key in one place.

Maps

Geodata

Boundaries, H3 cells and tiles with their sources.

Developers Request API access Offer a dataset

19Stewardship

Three independent stewards, three lenses

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) works through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario. GCRI Canada leads the Nexus Consortium as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) keep independent mandates as consortium stewards. Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm's length and have no control over institutional governance, research, publications, national priorities or customer, sovereign and community data.

Evidence and methods

GCRI Canada

Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.

Leadership and the annual programme

The Global Risks Forum

Leadership, institutional dialogue and the stewardship of Nexus Universe. It records the programme gates G0 to G7.

Finance readiness

The Global Risks Alliance

Finance, insurance and development readiness. Risk evidence becomes diligence material, never an approval or a transaction.

20Governance

Governance and corrections

Every value moves through recorded states. Anyone can submit a correction, and every correction is logged in public.

The life of a value

DraftComputedEvidence boundReviewedApproved for releasePublishedCorrectedSuperseded

Stewardship

21Calendar

Evidence cuts

An edition is published after review, not to a calendar; the dates are evidence cuts.

2026-09-30Baseline Edition 2026evidence closeBaseline 2026-12-31Q1 2027 · State and agendaevidence cutQuarterly 2027-03-31Q2 2027 · Evidence and buildevidence cutQuarterly 2027-06-30Q3 2027 · Stress test and readinessevidence cutQuarterly 2027-09-30Q4 2027 · Annual flagshipevidence cutQuarterly

Cart review

The Global Risks Index

Where to start

Observatory

Intelligence hub

195 country sites

Domain indices

Index Lab