The Global Risks Index · Baseline Edition 2026 · preparatory working draft
Global Risks Index
모든 국가에 대해 재해 요인, 취약성, 거시금융 취약성, 대응 역량, 시스템적 연계를 읽어 내는 개방형 다영역 지수군으로, 모든 값에 구간, 출처, 정정이 붙습니다.
FIG 1 · Country profiles: select a country
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Page GRX-HOME호 Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet published방법 v1.0.0-draft
195
개 국가 프로필
59
series and regions
20
domain indices
451
indicator definitions
01시작
Where to start
Observe
관측소
The live globe: layers, H3 cells, population and alerts.
열기 ReadIntelligence hub
Signals and outlooks across all twenty domains.
열기 Compare195 country sites
Profiles with every province and district on terrain maps.
열기 Measure영역 지수
Twenty indices in four pillars, with intervals.
열기 시험지수 랩
Composite construction and signal testing on your data.
열기 ReuseOpen data
Downloads with source and licence on every row.
열기 구축APIs and engines
Every endpoint, engine and key in one place.
열기 기여하기기여하기
Data, code, design, research and corrections.
열기02노출
Exposure and coverage at a glance
Source observations from open grids, never index values: index values publish with the edition. Each figure names its source and opens its region or country.
GHSL 2025, European Commission JRC (CC BY 4.0), summed over first-level units.
- 아프리카72.9 m4.8% of the region
- 아메리카 대륙60.9 m5.9% of the region
- 아시아595.2 m12.6% of the region
- 유럽37.8 m5.2% of the region
- 오세아니아3.6 m8.5% of the region
GEBCO 2024 Grid (public domain) and GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); people on land at or below 10 m.
- ADM13,188195 countries
- ADM248,764175 countries
- ADM395,84674 countries
- ADM493,96917 countries
- ADM5699,5963 countries
geoBoundaries, each country and level on its own licence; share-alike layers kept separate.
- 아프리카39of 54
- 아메리카 대륙33of 35
- 아시아40of 48
- 유럽30of 44
- 오세아니아14of 14
GEBCO 2024 Grid (public domain) and GHSL 2025 (CC BY 4.0); people on land at or below 10 m.
03지도
Global exposure map
People per H3 cell from the GHSL 2025 grid on a tilted world map. Scroll moves the page; Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, or + and −, zoom the map; drag to pan, right-drag to tilt and turn; select a country to open it.
FIG 2 · Population exposure by H3 cell, GHSL 2025
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
04지수
What NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) is
모든 국가에 대해 재해 요인, 취약성, 거시금융 취약성, 대응 역량, 시스템적 연계를 읽어 내는 개방형 다영역 지수군으로, 모든 값에 구간, 출처, 정정이 붙습니다.
P1
A family of indices, not one monolithic score
NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) publishes twenty domain indices, four pillar indices, a composite and six instruments. The composite never appears without every pillar and domain beside it, and no independent dimension is collapsed silently.
P2
Classes with intervals, never league tables
Every value carries a 90% interval from Monte Carlo analysis over normalisation, weights, imputation and aggregation. Countries are placed in risk classes with a stated class probability; pages list countries by name or code, never by value.
P3
No data is not zero
A missing input is shown as missing, an imputed input is flagged, and a value is withheld when coverage falls below the method’s minimum. An empty profile, an unavailable source and an observed zero render differently.
P4
Every value resolves to its source
Each value carries its source release, licence, retrieval time, method version and transformation chain (W3C PROV). A correction anywhere propagates to every dependent value and is logged publicly.
P5
Measured, modelled and perceived are kept apart
Status glyphs separate observed, reported, estimated, inferred, forecast, simulated, scenario and expert input. Perception signals form their own instrument and are never blended into measured risk.
P6
Systemic by construction
Standalone risk and coupling-adjusted risk are reported side by side, from typed dependency networks across trade, finance, energy, food, infrastructure and information.
P7
Licence-gated and reproducible
A source enters a public value only when its licence admits that use; withheld values are counted, not hidden. Methods, code paths, seeds and digests are published per release so any value can be recomputed.
P8
Information, not authority
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a rating, an official classification, a warning, a benchmark or advice, and it never decides for an institution.
05Board
The world board
Composite, coupled composite and the four pillars for the world, with change, interval, class probability and trend, and the countries that moved most.
| Instrument | 값 | 변화 | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | 추세 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NXS-GRX Composite RiskNXS-GRX · CRI | – | – | – | – | – | ||
NXS-GRX Coupled RiskNXS-GRX · CPL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Hazard and threat exposureNXS-GRX · HTE | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Human and systems vulnerabilityNXS-GRX · VUL | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Macro-financial and structural fragilityNXS-GRX · MSF | – | – | – | – | – | ||
Lack of coping and adaptive capacityNXS-GRX · LCC | – | – | – | – | – |
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
Your watchlist
No countries on your watchlist. Add a country from its profile; the list stays in this browser.
06Frontier
Why a new index
Established indices each read part of risk well. None reads all of it on one grammar with uncertainty, systemic coupling, forecasts, scenarios and provenance on every value.
The gap matrix
What established indices missWhat NXS-GRX does
- 01Gap
No index unifies hazard, vulnerability, conflict, macro-finance, cyber, health, food, nature and technology in one structure.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Twenty index domain indices in four pillars, one grammar.
- 02Gap
Systemic and cascading risk is described, not modelled.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Coupling instrument: typed dependency networks, contagion models, coupled beside standalone composite.
- 03Gap
Subnational coverage is thin and not comparable
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10ADM1, ADM2 and one H3 fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
- 04Gap
Uncertainty is rarely reported; ranks are over-read
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-1090% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol sensitivity on every value; no league tables.
- 05Gap
Data lags one to three years
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Pulse instrument: weekly nowcast over admitted event streams.
- 06Gap
Few indices forecast or are back-tested
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Outlook instrument with published verification scorecards
All 17 gaps
- 07Gap
Scenario projections are rare and macro-only
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Pathways instrument: SSP × warming level and transition families to 2030, 2050 and 2100.
- 08Gap
Perceived and measured risk are blurred
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Perception instrument kept separate, with a published gap.
- 09Gap
Values rarely trace to sources, versions and licences.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Record-level provenance, licence gate, public correction log
- 10Gap
Machine access is weak (PDF and spreadsheet releases)
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10API, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files and versioned releases.
- 11Gap
Licence restrictions block derived reuse
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Per-source licence gate; withheld values counted
- 12Gap
Coverage gaps cluster in fragile and small-island states.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Coverage vector per country; imputation flagged and capped.
- 13Gap
Capacity on paper is mistaken for performance
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Capability ladder from listed to demonstrated in real events.
- 14Gap
Methods change and break comparability
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Semantic versions, back-cast series, digests per release
- 15Gap
Neglected domains: AI, space weather, biosecurity, minerals, digital infrastructure, tail risk.
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Exponential technology and strategic systems series; Tail instrument.
- 16Gap
No shared taxonomy across indices
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10hazards with HIPs crosswalks; indicators with 501 crosswalks to source code lists.
- 17Gap
Means hide fat tails
NXS-GRXSource: the landscape, 2026-10Exceedance curves, return-period losses and expected shortfall where loss can be modelled.
Families read, each with what it leaves open
Multi-hazard disaster and humanitarian risk9 indices read Conflict, peace, fragility and governance10 indices read Economic, sovereign and financial risk7 indices read Climate, environment and nature4 indices read Health and food4 indices read Technology, cyber and frontier risk4 indices read Perception and foresight3 indices read Development and resilience5 indices read
Established risk and resilience indices, read for interoperability and validity checks. Names are those of their stewards and are cited for reference only; no text of any index is reproduced and no endorsement is implied.
07운영 방식
운영 방식
Ten journeys from the registries: source to profile, a run, provenance, correction, the composite, a country profile, a release, the instruments, a data offer and API access. Select a step to trace it. Play runs only when you press it.
NXS-GRX · Pipeline
From source to profile
Source to profile · A run you follow · Provenance · 정정 · Pillars and composite · 국가 개요 · Edition release · Seven instruments · Data offer · API access.
Licensed sources become indicators, domain indices, four pillars and the composite, then country profiles, series and the API.
01 Sources
- 01등록 출처 205개
- 02Event streams
- 03Scenario families
- 04Surveys and elicitation
02 Harmonise
- 05Harmonised series
- 06Dependency network
03 Indicators
- 07451 indicators
04 Sub-indices
- 0886 sub-indices
05 Domains
- 0920 domain indices
06 Pillars
- 10Hazard and threat exposure
- 11Human and systems vulnerability
- 12Macro-financial and structural fragility
- 13Lack of coping and adaptive capacity
- 14Systemic coupling score
07 Composite and instruments
- 15NXS-GRX Composite Risk
- 16Pulse
- 17Outlook
- 18경로
- 19Tail
- 20Perception
08 Outputs
- 21NXS-GRX Coupled Risk
- 22195 country profiles
- 2354 series indices
- 24API, tiles and bulk files
08Composite
Four pillars, one composite, never alone
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices.
HTE
Hazard and threat exposure
What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way? 5 domain indices.
지수 VULHuman and systems vulnerability
How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives? 8 domain indices.
지수 MSFMacro-financial and structural fragility
How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis? 5 domain indices.
지수 LCCLack of coping and adaptive capacity
Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt? 2 domain indices.
지수FIG 3 · Simulator: four pillars to the composite and coupled composite
Pillars (0 to 10)
Coupling and uncertainty
–
runs in your browser
09수단
Seven instruments, seven questions
Annual edition with quarterly evidence cuts
Structural
What is the slow-moving baseline of risk? ◆ESTIMATED◆MODELLED.
방법 Weekly nowcast, event-driven between releasesPulse
What has changed since the last structural cut? ●OBSERVED▲INFERRED.
방법 Monthly, horizons of 1, 3, 12 and 36 monthsOutlook
How likely are defined adverse outcomes over a stated horizon? ◇FORECAST.
방법 Each annual edition경로
How does risk move under alternative futures to 2030, 2050 and 2100? ○SCENARIO◈SIMULATED.
방법 Each annual edition, event-updatedTail
What does the rare, severe end of the distribution look like? ◈SIMULATED◆MODELLED.
방법 Each annual edition, quarterly network refresh연계
Where does risk travel across systems and borders? ◆ESTIMATED◈SIMULATED.
방법 Annual expert and public survey wavesPerception
Where does perceived risk differ from measured risk? ◎EXPERT INPUT□REPORTED.
방법10지수
Twenty domain indices in four pillars
Each domain index has its own page with components, indicators, aggregation and intervals. Pick a pillar.
HTE: What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
VUL: How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
VUL · SOC
사회경제적 취약성 지수
5 components · 18 indicators VUL · DEMDisplacement pressure index
4 components · 10 indicators VUL · FOO식량 불안정 리스크 지수
5 components · 20 indicators VUL · WAT물 안보 리스크 지수
4 components · 11 indicators VUL · HLT보건 안보 리스크 지수
5 components · 25 indicators VUL · ENV환경 압력 지수
5 components · 16 indicators VUL · ENE에너지 안보 리스크 지수
5 components · 20 indicators VUL · INF인프라 취약성 지수
5 components · 24 indicatorsMSF: How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
LCC: Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
11재해
14 hazard domains
The Nexus Hazard Standard (Hazard Standard) sorts every hazard into fourteen domains and their families.
54 hazards · 8 families
대기와 기상
41 hazards · 5 families물 시스템
18 hazards · 3 families얼음과 눈
47 hazards · 6 families고체 지구
17 hazards · 2 families우주와 지구 근접 공간
39 hazards · 6 families토지와 생태계
58 hazards · 7 familiesPlanetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping
63 hazards · 9 familiesPollution and hazardous substances
124 hazards · 21 families보건과 생물안보
110 hazards · 13 families건조 시스템
48 hazards · 6 familiesInformation and cyber-physical systems
109 hazards · 16 families첨단 및 지수적 기술
130 hazards · 14 families사회, 분쟁, 경제
47 hazards · 4 families시스템 및 복합 사건
12시리즈
Global, sector, strategic, technology, thematic and regional
GLB
글로벌 시계열
The world read as one interdependent system. 1 series.
열기 GSGlobal sector series
Fifteen sector indices on the grammar of the Nexus Reports sector screen. 15 series.
열기 SRStrategic systems series
Cross-cutting systems where crises entangle. 14 series.
열기 XTExponential technology series
Frontier technologies as infrastructure, dependency and hazard. 20 series.
열기 THThematic series
Disaster risk reduction, finance and intelligence, and the water, energy, food, health and biodiversity nexus. 4 series.
열기 RG지역 시리즈
The five UN M49 regions and their twenty-two sub-regions. 5 regions.
열기13국가
195 country sites by region
One site per country with every province and district on terrain maps. Values publish with the edition.
아프리카54country sites동부 아프리카Middle AfricaNorthern AfricaSouthern Africa서부 아프리카Open Africa 아메리카 대륙35country sites카리브 제도Central AmericaNorthern America남아메리카Open Americas 아시아48country sitesCentral AsiaEastern AsiaSouth-eastern AsiaSouthern Asia서아시아Open Asia 유럽44country sitesEastern EuropeNorthern EuropeSouthern EuropeWestern EuropeOpen Europe 오세아니아14country sitesAustralia and New ZealandMelanesiaMicronesiaPolynesiaOpen Oceania
14읽기
How to read NXS-GRX
Classes, not ranks
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
낮음2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
높음5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%).
The status of every value
| Glyph | 상태 | Means |
|---|---|---|
| ● | OBSERVED | Measured directly and published by the source |
| □ | REPORTED | Reported or declared by a publisher, not independently measured |
| ◆ | ESTIMATED | Estimated or modelled by a stated method |
| ▲ | INFERRED | Inferred from related signals |
| ◇ | FORECAST | Probabilistic statement about a future period |
| ◈ | SIMULATED | Output of a simulation or stochastic event set |
| ○ | SCENARIO | Conditional on a named scenario, not a prediction |
| ◎ | EXPERT INPUT | Structured expert judgement |
When there is no value
| 상태 | Means |
|---|---|
PUBLISHED | Released in an edition with interval, class and sources |
NO_DATA | No admitted input; not a zero |
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE | Coverage below the method minimum; value withheld |
WITHHELD | An input’s licence or the public-safe screen does not admit public display; counted |
DEGRADED | Published with a stated quality limitation |
15Clients
Who it serves
Solutions by sector: what each user needs, the products that answer it and the journeys that deliver it.
GOV
Governments and national agencies
Prioritise prevention, plan subnationally and report on Sendai.
IFIMultilaterals and development banks
Screen country and project context, read fiscal resilience.
UNUN system and humanitarian agencies
Compare needs with intervals, watch weekly signals.
REG중앙은행과 감독기관
Design supervisory scenarios, read systemic coupling and replicate methods.
INS보험사와 재보험사
Read hazard, exposure and protection gaps, run tails.
FIN은행과 자산운용사
Read sovereign and systemic context, run climate pathways.
CORP기업과 공급망
Screen sites and suppliers, watch chokepoints and keep country context current.
GOV도시와 인프라 운영자
Read hexagon-level hazard and dependency layers for planning, investment.
ACA연구 및 학계
Replicate every value, study and extend the methods, contribute data and review.
ACADevelopers and frontier-tech builders
Build applications, models.
NGOCivil society and NGOs
Target programmes with open profiles and contribute local evidence.
MED언론과 시민
Explain risk with intervals and classes, and embed maps.
16여정
작업과 과정
Every task is a run you can follow: who acts at each job, the technology, the checks and the gates where it waits for review.
17방법론
방법론
The methods the indices and instruments run on, grouped in fabrics, each with its own page.
Universal mathematics and statistics14 methods 재해 과학6 methods Exposure and asset intelligence3 methods Vulnerability, fragility and resilience5 methods 결과와 손실4 methods 대재해 리스크5 methods 네트워크, 의존성, 시스템 리스크5 methods 금융 리스크7 methods 보험과 재보험5 methods 시장, 무역, 공급망5 methods Sovereign, macro and development5 methods 정책, 규제, 거버넌스4 methods 물 리스크6 methods Food, agriculture and fisheries5 methods 에너지 리스크5 methods 보건과 역학6 methods 기후, 자연, 생물다양성5 methods Critical infrastructure and industrial systems4 methods 사이버, AI, 프런티어 기술5 methods Geopolitics, conflict and human security4 methods Projects, programmes and infrastructure investment5 methods Risk data4 methods Scientific assurance4 methods
18데이터
Data, licences and the API
Every source is registered with its licence. Only what a licence admits reaches a public value.
19Stewardship
Three independent stewards, three lenses
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) works through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario. GCRI Canada leads the Nexus Consortium as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation. The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) keep independent mandates as consortium stewards. Technology, infrastructure and service providers act at arm’s length and have no control over institutional governance, research, publications, national priorities or customer, sovereign and community data.
Evidence and methods
GCRI Canada
Evidence, methods, risk ontology, data discipline, verifiable records and correction.
Leadership and the annual programme
글로벌 리스크 포럼(Global Risks Forum)
Leadership, institutional dialogue and the stewardship of Nexus Universe. It records the programme gates G0 to G7.
금융 준비
글로벌 리스크 얼라이언스(Global Risks Alliance)
Finance, insurance and development readiness. Risk evidence becomes diligence material, never an approval or a transaction.
20거버넌스
Governance and corrections
Every value moves through recorded states. Anyone can submit a correction, and every correction is logged in public.
The life of a value
초안ComputedEvidence bound검토 완료Approved for release발행됨CorrectedSuperseded
21일정
Evidence cuts
An edition is published after review, not to a calendar; the dates are evidence cuts.
양식
Edition and correction alerts
Notices when an edition, a vintage or a correction is published; no tracking and no other use.
- 01Fill inFields marked (required) are needed; everything else helps the review.
- 02참조 번호You get a reference on screen; the record is kept in this site’s WordPress database.
- 03검토The outcome is recorded in public. Contact details stay on this site and are never published or shared.
Form · grx-alerts
This form opens here once it is switched on. Until then, send it through the Nexus Reports gateway.
Built to be checked
Every value will open to its indicators, sources, method version and correction log. Read the method, try the simulators, and tell us where we are wrong.
상태
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
NXS-GRX가 아닌 것
NXS-GRX는 연구 및 리스크 분석 정보입니다. 신용등급이나 ESG 등급이 아니며 등급 척도를 사용하지 않고, 금융상품의 벤치마크도, 공식 통계도, 긴급 경보나 공식 분류도, 자문도 아닙니다. 자연인 평가에 사용해서는 안 됩니다. 리스크 등급은 공개된 척도 위의 구간이며, 국가나 사람의 순위가 결코 아닙니다.
Pulse 신호와 전망 확률은 소관 당국의 검토를 위한 정보이며 결코 공공 경보가 아닙니다. 공식 경보는 권한을 가진 당국만 발령합니다.
기관과 출처
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.