The Global Risks Index
Hazard Standard · cryo · 18 hazards

Ice and snow

Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice.

Page GRX-HAZ-CRYOEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
Hazard Standard · Ice and snow
origin
natural10
hybrid8
onset
rapid6
creeping5
progressive5
slow1
instantaneous1
predictability
statistical10
nowcast-only3
forecastable3
seasonal2
3
families
18
hazards
59
relations
12
risk-class tags
01Families

3 families, 18 hazards

Hazards of the frozen Earth: snowpack and avalanche, glacier and permafrost change, floating ice. Organised by ice; families by driving process.

Snowpack hazards cryo.snowpack

Hazards of seasonal snow cover: it falls as a slope hazard, melts as a water source and goes missing as a drought.

Snow avalanchecryo.snowpack.avalanche

A mass of snow sliding or flowing down a slope, burying people, roads and buildings.

Also: snow slide

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · momentaryFootprint · districtPredictability · nowcast-only
Snow droughtcryo.snowpack.snow-drought

A winter snowpack far below normal that cuts spring meltwater for rivers, hydropower and irrigation.

Origin · naturalOnset · slowDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Rain-on-snow eventcryo.snowpack.rain-on-snow

Rain falling on a snowpack so that it melts and releases water quickly, adding to runoff and flood peaks.

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastable

Glacier, ice-sheet and permafrost change cryo.glacier

Land ice and frozen ground changing state: sudden releases and slow losses are kept together because they share monitoring (satellite altimetry, ground sensors) and the same warming driver.

Glacial lake outburst floodcryo.glacier.glacial-lake-outburst

A sudden release of water from a lake held back by a glacier or moraine, sending a flood and debris wave down the valley.

Also: GLOF

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · statistical
Glacier or ice-mass collapsecryo.glacier.glacier-collapse

A large part of a glacier or hanging ice breaking away and rushing down the valley as an ice and rock avalanche.

Also: ice avalanche, hanging glacier break-off

Origin · naturalOnset · instantaneousDuration · momentaryFootprint · cityPredictability · statistical
Glacier mass losscryo.glacier.glacier-mass-loss

Sustained shrinking of mountain glaciers that first raises and later cuts dry-season river flow and destabilises slopes.

Also: glacier retreat

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskPlanetary risk
Ice-sheet mass losscryo.glacier.ice-sheet-loss

Net loss of ice from the great ice sheets, driving long-term sea-level rise and changes in ocean circulation.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskCatastrophic riskPlanetary risk
Permafrost thawcryo.glacier.permafrost-thaw

Warming of frozen ground that weakens foundations, collapses slopes, releases greenhouse gases and reshapes drainage.

Also: thermokarst

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · continentPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskPlanetary risk
Ice-shelf disintegrationcryo.glacier.ice-shelf-disintegration

Rapid break-up of a floating ice shelf when meltwater fractures it or warm water thins it, letting the glaciers it held back flow faster into the sea.

Also: ice-shelf collapse, hydrofracture

Origin · hybridOnset · rapidDuration · permanentFootprint · regionPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskPlanetary risk
Subglacial outburst floodcryo.glacier.subglacial-outburst

A sudden flood of meltwater released from beneath a glacier, often by volcanic heat, that sweeps away bridges, roads and land downstream.

Also: jokulhlaup, glacial volcanic flood

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · shortFootprint · regionPredictability · nowcast-only
Glacier surgecryo.glacier.glacier-surge

A glacier advancing many times faster than normal for months to years, overrunning land and damming rivers to create outburst flood risk.

Also: surging glacier

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Permafrost thaw slumpcryo.glacier.thaw-slump

Collapse and retreat of slopes as ice-rich permafrost thaws, flowing mud and debris into rivers and undermining roads, pipelines and buildings.

Also: retrogressive thaw slump, active-layer detachment

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · districtPredictability · statistical
Rock glacier destabilisationcryo.glacier.rock-glacier-destabilisation

Acceleration and breakdown of ice-cemented rock glaciers as mountain permafrost warms, feeding debris flows and rockfall onto mountain infrastructure.

Also: rock glacier acceleration, creeping permafrost failure

Origin · hybridOnset · progressiveDuration · multi-yearFootprint · districtPredictability · statisticalEmerging risk

Floating ice cryo.floating-ice

Ice that floats on open water: grouped by medium because the hazard is to shipping, ports and offshore work, and is observed the same way.

Sea icecryo.floating-ice.sea-ice

Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.

Also: pack ice

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastable
Iceberg and ice-floe driftcryo.floating-ice.ice-floe-drift

Icebergs or large floes drifting into shipping lanes, ports and offshore platforms.

Also: icebergs, ice flow

Origin · naturalOnset · progressiveDuration · extendedFootprint · regionPredictability · forecastable
Sea-ice losscryo.floating-ice.sea-ice-loss

Shrinking polar ice cover that exposes coasts, shifts weather patterns and opens new shipping and security risks.

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · permanentFootprint · planetPredictability · statisticalGlobal riskPlanetary risk
Lake and river ice losscryo.floating-ice.lake-river-ice-loss

Later freeze-up, earlier break-up and thinner ice on lakes and rivers that cut off winter roads and travel and raise drowning risk for northern communities.

Also: ice road failure, shorter ice season

Origin · hybridOnset · creepingDuration · multi-yearFootprint · regionPredictability · seasonal
Shoreline ice shovecryo.floating-ice.ice-shove

Wind or current driving lake or sea ice onto shore, where it piles up and crushes buildings, docks and shoreline structures.

Also: ice push, ice pile-up

Origin · naturalOnset · rapidDuration · momentaryFootprint · districtPredictability · nowcast-only
02Relations

59 expert relations

Triggers, amplifications, compound pairs and reductions from the Hazard Standard expert model; 39 lead out of this domain into others.

FromKindToMechanismConfidence
Heavy snowfalltriggerSnow avalanchenew snow loads a slopehigh
Heavy snowfallreducesSnow droughtadds to the snowpackhigh
SnowstormtriggerSnow avalancherapid snow loading in windmedium
BlizzardtriggerSnow avalanchewind slabs form on lee slopeshigh
HeatwaveamplifySnow droughtwarm spells melt snow earlyhigh
HeatwavetriggerGlacial lake outburst floodrapid melt raises lake level and stresses damsmedium
Atmospheric rivertriggerRain-on-snow eventwarm moist air rains on snowhigh
Atmospheric riverreducesSnow droughtadds snow at altitudemedium
Snow avalanchetriggerWidespread power outageburial of lines and poles in mountain terrainmedium
Snow droughttriggerHydrological droughtless spring melt feeds rivershigh
Snow droughtamplifyAgricultural droughtless irrigation waterhigh
Snow droughtamplifyWildfireearlier drying and a longer fire seasonmedium
Rain-on-snow eventtriggerSnowmelt floodrain adds heat and water to the snowpackhigh
Rain-on-snow eventtriggerRiver floodrain and melt together raise dischargehigh
Rain-on-snow eventtriggerSnow avalanchewet snow loses strengthmedium
Glacial lake outburst floodtriggerDebris flowflood wave entrains valley debrishigh
Glacial lake outburst floodtriggerFlash floodsudden release of lake volumehigh
Glacier or ice-mass collapsetriggerGlacial lake outburst floodice falling into a lake displaces water over a damhigh
Glacier or ice-mass collapsetriggerNatural-dam outburst floodice and rock debris block a valleymedium
Glacier or ice-mass collapsetriggerTsunamicalving or ice fall into a fjord or lakelow
Glacier mass losstriggerGlacial lake outburst floodnew meltwater lakes form behind unstable damsmedium
Glacier mass lossamplifyWater supply shortfalllong-run loss of dry-season meltwaterhigh
Glacier mass lossamplifySea-level risemeltwater adds to the oceanhigh
Glacier mass lossamplifyRock avalancheloss of ice support and thawing of slopesmedium
Glacier mass losstriggerHydrological droughtreduced melt contribution after peak flowmedium
Ice-sheet mass lossamplifySea-level riseice discharge adds to the oceanhigh
Ice-sheet mass losstriggerAbrupt climate-system shiftfreshwater input may weaken ocean circulationlow
Permafrost thawtriggerSlope slideloss of ground ice weakens slopeshigh
Permafrost thawtriggerLand subsidenceground ice melts and the ground settleshigh
Permafrost thawtriggerPipeline ruptureground movement loads pipelinesmedium
Permafrost thawtriggerBuilding collapsefoundation settlementmedium
Permafrost thawamplifyCoastal erosionthawing coastal bluffs erode quicklyhigh
Permafrost thawtriggerAnthrax outbreakthawing exposes old carcasses and sporeslow
Sea icetriggerMaritime accidenthull damage and entrapmenthigh
Sea icetriggerOil and gas extraction accidentice loads on offshore structuresmedium
Sea icetriggerPort or hub closureports and routes blocked by icemedium
Iceberg and ice-floe drifttriggerMaritime accidentcollision with icehigh
Iceberg and ice-floe drifttriggerOil and gas extraction accidentice impact on platformsmedium
Sea-ice lossamplifyCoastal erosionless shore-fast ice protection from waveshigh
Sea-ice losstriggerBiodiversity losshabitat loss for ice-dependent speciesmedium
Sea-ice lossamplifyPolar vortex disruptionaltered Arctic heating and wave patternslow
Rock avalanchetriggerGlacial lake outburst floodimpact into a glacial lake causes overtoppingmedium
WildfireamplifyGlacier mass losssoot darkens snow and icelow
Black carbonamplifyGlacier mass losssoot on snow and ice absorbs sunlightmedium
Ice-shelf disintegrationamplifyWest Antarctic ice sheet collapseloss of buttressing speeds glacier flowhigh
Ice-shelf disintegrationamplifySea-level risereleased glaciers speed ice dischargehigh
Sea-ice lossamplifyArctic winter sea-ice collapsethinner ice reforms less each wintermedium
Antarctic sea-ice regime shiftamplifyIce-shelf disintegrationwaves and warm water reach exposed shelf frontsmedium
Glacier mass losstriggerPost-peak glacier meltwater declineshrinking ice area passes peak meltwaterhigh
Boreal forest northern advanceamplifyPermafrost thawdarker surface and shading change ground heat balancemedium
Permafrost thawtriggerPermafrost carbon releasethawed organic matter decomposeshigh
Permafrost thawtriggerPermafrost thaw slumpground ice melts and slopes collapsehigh
Permafrost thawtriggerRock glacier destabilisationwarmer ice cement weakensmedium
Permafrost thaw slumpcompound-withAbrupt permafrost thaw emissionthe same ground collapse exposes deep carbonmedium
Volcanic unresttriggerSubglacial outburst floodvolcanic heat melts ice from belowhigh
Glacier surgetriggerNatural-dam outburst floodadvancing ice dams a valleymedium
Rock glacier destabilisationtriggerDebris flowloosened debris is mobilised by rainmedium
Lake and river ice lossamplifyFood supply-chain breakdownwinter roads to remote communities failmedium
WindstormtriggerShoreline ice shovewind drives ice onshorehigh
04Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms, standards, learning and working groups across GCRI, GRF and GRA for the systems these hazards act on.

05Standards

Standards that govern this domain

Propose a change to Hazard Standard

Definitions and relations are a draft for expert review; corrections follow the standards development process.