The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · GS-15 · Global sector series

Global Science and engineering

The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.

Page GRX-SER-GS-15Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports GS-15 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices

1

Technology concentration risk

Indicators

75

3 index domains

Hazard families

16

Frontier and exponential technology

Methods

107

Scientific assurance · Risk data

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
domain indices
75
indicators in scope
1
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is risk science capacity thinnest relative to risk?
  2. Which models and datasets are single points of failure?
  3. How reproducible are the methods risk decisions rely on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation
How the Global Science and engineering index is built
Graph5 nodes
Graph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
  1. Technology concentration risk
    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0-10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Global Science and engineering index
    Series index · SERIES · GS-15
    The scientific, engineering and data capacity societies need to measure, model and reduce risk, and its concentration.
  3. Country readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings
    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading
    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

NXS-GRX · GS-15 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global Science and engineering index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
IndexValueChangeChange %90% intervalClass · probabilityTrendRange
Technology concentration riskNXS-GRX · TEC—————

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Social and human development, Governance and institutions.

04Indicators

75 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SOC · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table.
IndicatorDomainSub-domainComponentUnitLevelsCrosswalks
Unemployment rateIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rateMACLabour marketvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
LIC-DSF composite indicator score (published, reference)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicatorFISDebt-carrying capacitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Household debt, share of GDPIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdpFINFinancial depth and inclusionvulnerability%COUNTRYIMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Account ownership, adultsIND.FIN.depth.account_ownershipFINFinancial depth and inclusioncoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_relianceECOExport and import concentrationvulnerability%COUNTRY
Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependencyWATTransboundary dependenceexposure%COUNTRY
Transboundary basin area with operational cooperationIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.shareWATTransboundary dependencecoping capacity%COUNTRYSDG 6.5.2
Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oopHLTHealth system capacityvulnerability%COUNTRYSDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Cost of a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_costFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population unable to afford a healthy dietIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordableFOOAccess and affordabilityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Employment in agriculture, share of total employmentIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_shareFOOAgricultural production and dependencevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Extreme poverty headcount, USD 3.00 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300SOCPovertyvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Poverty headcount, USD 4.20 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420SOCPovertyvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Poverty headcount, USD 8.30 a day (2021 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830SOCPovertyvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Poverty headcount at the national poverty lineIND.SOC.poverty.national_povertySOCPovertyvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Multidimensional poverty headcount (global MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_povertySOCPovertyvulnerability%COUNTRY, ADM1SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Gini indexIND.SOC.inequality.giniSOCInequalityvulnerability{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Income or consumption share of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_shareSOCInequalityvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Growth of consumption or income of the bottom 40 percentIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growthSOCInequalityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Loss in human development due to inequalityIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_lossSOCInequalityvulnerability%COUNTRYHDR loss
Mean years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schoolingSOCEducationadaptive capacityaCOUNTRYHDR mys
Expected years of schoolingIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schoolingSOCEducationadaptive capacityaCOUNTRYHDR eys
Learning povertyIND.SOC.education.learning_povertySOCEducationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Adult literacy rateIND.SOC.education.adult_literacySOCEducationadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Gender Inequality Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_indexSOCGendervulnerability{score}COUNTRYHDR gii
Female labour-force participation rateIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participationSOCGenderadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Seats held by women in national parliamentIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliamentSOCGenderadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population covered by at least one social protection benefitIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverageSOCSocial protectioncoping capacity%COUNTRYSDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neetSOCSocial protectionvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Informal employment, share of total employmentIND.SOC.protection.informal_employmentSOCSocial protectionvulnerability%COUNTRYSDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Children aged 5 to 17 in child labourIND.SOC.protection.child_labourSOCSocial protectionvulnerability%COUNTRYSDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdiSOCHuman developmentadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYHDR hdi
Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index (UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdiSOCHuman developmentadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYHDR ihdi
Urban population living in slumsIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_shareDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Voice and accountability (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountabilityGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stabilityGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Government effectiveness (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectivenessGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Control of corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruptionGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Corruption Perceptions Index (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptionsGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Press freedom score (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedomGOVGovernance qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Rule of law (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_lawGOVRule of lawcoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Property rights and rule-based governance (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rightsGOVRule of lawcoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Unsentenced detainees, share of prison populationIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detaineesGOVRule of lawvulnerability%COUNTRYSDG 16.3.2
Bribery incidence among firmsIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firmsGOVRule of lawvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Regulatory quality (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_qualityGOVPolicy and institutional qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA overall rating (IDA resource allocation index)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overallGOVPolicy and institutional qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA public-sector management and institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_managementGOVPolicy and institutional qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparency, accountability and corruption in the public sectorIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparencyGOVPolicy and institutional qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficiency of revenue mobilisation (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administrationGOVPolicy and institutional qualitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Deviation of budget execution from the approved budgetIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviationGOVPolicy and institutional qualityvulnerability%COUNTRYSDG 16.6.1
Statistical Performance Indicators overall scoreIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overallGOVStatistical capacitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYWB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Completeness of birth registrationIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registrationGOVStatistical capacitycoping capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Years since the last population censusIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_censusGOVStatistical capacityvulnerabilityaCOUNTRYSDG 17.19.2
Business environment score (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overallGOVBusiness environmentcoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentrationENECritical mineralsvulnerability1COUNTRY
Urban population with convenient access to public transportIND.INF.transport.public_transport_accessINFTransportcoping capacity%CITY, ADM1, COUNTRYSDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Educational facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damagedINFService disruptionimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI D-3
ITU GCI legal measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_legalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI organizational measures pillarIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizationalCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Data protection and privacy legislation in forceIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_lawCYBCyber capabilitycoping capacity{bool}COUNTRYITU_GCI Legal Measures
E-government developmentIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_developmentCYBDigital dependenceexposure{score}COUNTRY
Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdpTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYSDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_millionTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity/10*6COUNTRYSDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exportsTECTechnology capabilityadaptive capacity%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentrationTECConcentration and dependencevulnerability1COUNTRY
AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_controlTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentrationTECArtificial intelligencevulnerability%COUNTRY
Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversightTECBiotechnologycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
National DRR strategy aligned with the Sendai FrameworkIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategyCRSDRR strategycoping capacity{score}COUNTRYSENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Local governments with DRR strategies aligned to the national strategyIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategiesCRSDRR strategycoping capacity%COUNTRY, ADM1SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Shock-responsive social protection readinessIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protectionCRSResponse capacitycoping capacity{score}COUNTRY
05Hazards

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Frontier109HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 16 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below.
FamilyDomainHazardsCount
AI system failure and misalignmentFrontier and exponential technologyAI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration …11
AI security and model supply chainFrontier and exponential technologyTheft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning7
AI misuse and capability upliftFrontier and exponential technologyAI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI8
Agentic AI acting at scaleFrontier and exponential technologyRunaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach6
Algorithmic decision and structural harmFrontier and exponential technologyHarmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots …12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weaponsFrontier and exponential technologyLethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure …10
Biotechnology and synthetic biologyFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release …10
Nanotechnology and advanced materialsFrontier and exponential technologyEngineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended realityFrontier and exponential technologyBrain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transitionFrontier and exponential technologyCryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment4
Climate intervention technologiesFrontier and exponential technologySolar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage …11
Space technology and orbital infrastructureFrontier and exponential technologyDestructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monocultureFrontier and exponential technologyCritical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure3
Advanced and distributed manufacturingFrontier and exponential technology3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure3
Energy-transition technology failuresFrontier and exponential technologyLithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration4
Distributed ledgers and digital assetsFrontier and exponential technologySmart-contract and oracle exploit1
06Methods

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

45 methods

Scientific assurance

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

24 methods

Risk data

Source Discovery · Source Fitness · Rights Resolver · Freshness Resolver · Provenance Resolver · Data Quality · Missingness Semantics …

38 methods

Universal mathematics and statistics

Robust Distribution · Empirical Distribution · Bayesian Updating · Hierarchical Bayesian · Extreme Value · Tail Risk · Copula Dependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Universities and research

Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context; Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps; Design pre-arranged finance questions

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals; Watch weekly signals for review; Read outlooks for anticipatory planning

08Reports

Nexus Reports

Edition code
GS-15
Edition status
planned
Subject
Named by Nexus Reports
Nexus Reports
09Cite

Cite and reuse

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Global Science and engineering series (GRX-SER-GS-15), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/gs-15/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000073.
Series key
grix:SER.GS-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.