Skip to content

Le Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · Global sector series

Science et ingénierie mondiales

Les capacités scientifiques, techniques et de données dont les sociétés ont besoin pour mesurer, modéliser et réduire le risque, ainsi que sa concentration.

Page GRX-SER-GS-15Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports GS-15 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Indices de domaine

1

Risque de concentration technologique

Indicateurs

75

3 index domains

Hazard families

16

Technologies de pointe et exponentielles

Méthodes

107

Scientific assurance · Risk data

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
indices de domaine
75
indicators in scope
1
domaines d'aléas
4
client groups

01Périmètre

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is risk science capacity thinnest relative to risk?
  2. Which models and datasets are single points of failure?
  3. How reproducible are the methods risk decisions rely on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Global Science and engineering index is built

Graph5 nodes
Graphe
01Indices de domaine
02Series index
03Readings

100%
Liste
  1. Risque de concentration technologique

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Global Science and engineering index

    Series index · SERIES · GS-15
    Les capacités scientifiques, techniques et de données dont les sociétés ont besoin pour mesurer, modéliser et réduire le risque, ainsi que sa concentration.
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Non exécutéEn coursTerminé
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03Indices

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global Science and engineering index, world
–
Les valeurs sont publiées avec l'édition ; l'intervalle, la classe et la variation apparaissent ici.
Indice Valeur Variation Variation % Intervalle à 90 % Classe · probabilité Tendance Plage
Risque de concentration technologiqueNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Social and human development, Governance and institutions.

04Indicateurs

75 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SOC · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
Indicateur Domaine Sub-domain Composant Unité Niveaux Crosswalks
Taux de chômageIND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
Score de l'indicateur composite LIC-DSF (publié, référence)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Dette des ménages, part du PIBIND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
Détention d'un compte, adultesIND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
Dépendance nette aux importations de minerais critiquesIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
Préparation économique à l'investissement dans l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
Préparation de la gouvernance à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
Préparation sociale à l'adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
Taux de dépendance aux ressources en eau renouvelables extérieuresIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
Superficie des bassins transfrontaliers faisant l'objet d'une coopération opérationnelleIND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
Population confrontée à des dépenses de santé directes catastrophiquesIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
Coût d'une alimentation saineIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
Population n'ayant pas les moyens d'une alimentation saineIND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
Emploi dans l'agriculture, part de l'emploi totalIND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
Taux d'extrême pauvreté, 3.00 USD par jour (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
Taux de pauvreté, 4.20 USD par jour (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
Taux de pauvreté, 8.30 USD par jour (PPA 2021)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
Taux de pauvreté au seuil national de pauvretéIND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
Taux de pauvreté multidimensionnelle (IPM mondial)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
Indice de GiniIND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
Part du revenu ou de la consommation des 40 pour cent les plus pauvresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
Croissance de la consommation ou du revenu des 40 pour cent les plus pauvresIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
Perte de développement humain due aux inégalitésIND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
Durée moyenne de scolarisationIND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
Durée attendue de scolarisationIND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
Pauvreté des apprentissagesIND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
Taux d'alphabétisation des adultesIND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
Indice d'inégalité de genre (PNUD)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
Taux d'activité des femmesIND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
Sièges occupés par des femmes au parlement nationalIND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
Population couverte par au moins une prestation de protection socialeIND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
Jeunes sans emploi, ni éducation, ni formationIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
Emploi informel, part de l'emploi totalIND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
Enfants de 5 à 17 ans astreints au travailIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
Indice de développement humain (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC Développement humain adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
Indice de développement humain ajusté aux inégalités (PNUD)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC Développement humain adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
Population urbaine vivant dans des bidonvillesIND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
Voix et responsabilité (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
Stabilité politique et absence de violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
Efficacité des pouvoirs publics (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
Maîtrise de la corruption (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
Indice de perception de la corruption (Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Score de liberté de la presse (RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
État de droit (WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
Droits de propriété et gouvernance fondée sur des règles (CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
Détenus non condamnés, part de la population carcéraleIND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
Incidence de la corruption parmi les entreprisesIND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
Qualité de la réglementation (WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
Note globale CPIA (indice d'allocation des ressources de l'IDA)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA gestion du secteur public et institutionsIND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA transparence, responsabilité et corruption dans le secteur publicIND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
Efficacité de la mobilisation des recettes (CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
Écart entre l'exécution budgétaire et le budget approuvéIND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
Score global des indicateurs de performance statistiqueIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
Exhaustivité de l'enregistrement des naissancesIND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
Années écoulées depuis le dernier recensement de la populationIND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
Score de l'environnement des affaires (B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de minerais critiques importésIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Population urbaine ayant un accès pratique aux transports publicsIND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
Établissements d'enseignement endommagés ou détruits par des catastrophesIND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
Pilier mesures juridiques du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Pilier mesures organisationnelles du GCI de l'UITIND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
Législation sur la protection des données et de la vie privée en vigueurIND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
Développement de l'administration en ligneIND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
Dépense intérieure brute de R&D, part du PIBIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
Chercheurs par million d'habitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
Exportations de haute technologie, part des exportations de produits manufacturésIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
Concentration des fournisseurs de semi-conducteurs importésIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs d'infrastructure cloudIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
Capacité de calcul pour l'IA sous contrôle étranger ou d'un fournisseur uniqueIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Concentration des fournisseurs de modèles de fondationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC Intelligence artificielle vulnerability % COUNTRY
Supervision de la biosûreté et de la biosécurité des laboratoires de haut confinementIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC Biotechnologie coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
Stratégie nationale de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignée sur le Cadre de Sendai pour la réduction des risques de catastropheIND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
Administrations locales dotées de stratégies de réduction des risques de catastrophe (RRC) alignées sur la stratégie nationaleIND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
Préparation de la protection sociale réactive aux chocsIND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05Aléas

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
Frontière109HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 16 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
Famille Domaine Aléas Count
AI system failure and misalignment Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift Technologies de pointe et exponentielles AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
Biotechnologie et biologie de synthèse Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
Technologies d’intervention climatique Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing Technologies de pointe et exponentielles 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets Technologies de pointe et exponentielles Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06Méthodes

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

45 methods

Assurance scientifique

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

24 methods

Données de risque

Source Discovery · Source Fitness · Rights Resolver · Freshness Resolver · Provenance Resolver · Data Quality · Missingness Semantics …

38 methods

Mathématiques et statistiques universelles

Robust Distribution · Empirical Distribution · Bayesian Updating · Hierarchical Bayesian · Extreme Value · Tail Risk · Copula Dependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

08Rapports

Rapports Nexus

Edition code
GS-15
Edition status
prévue
Objet
Named by Nexus Reports

Rapports Nexus

09Citer

Citer et réutiliser

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Global Science and engineering series (GRX-SER-GS-15), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/gs-15/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000073.
Series key
grix:SER.GS-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.