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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · Global sector series

世界の科学・工学

社会がリスクとその集中を測定し、モデル化し、低減するために必要な科学・工学・データの能力。

Page GRX-SER-GS-15Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject Nexus ReportsNexus Reports GS-15 (planned)Values not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
分野別指数

1

技術集中リスク

指標

75

3 index domains

Hazard families

16

フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術

手法

107

Scientific assurance · Risk data

Counts from the indicator, hazard and model registries.
1
分野別指数
75
indicators in scope
1
ハザードの分野
4
client groups

01対象範囲

Scope and questions

The subject is the one named by the Nexus Reports programme for this code.

  1. Where is risk science capacity thinnest relative to risk?
  2. Which models and datasets are single points of failure?
  3. How reproducible are the methods risk decisions rely on?
02Construction

Domain indices to the series index

The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.

computation

How the Global Science and engineering index is built

Graph5 nodes
グラフ
01分野別指数
02Series index
03Readings

100%
索引
  1. 技術集中リスク

    Domain index · IDX · TEC
    Index of technology dependence, critical-mineral dependence and, inverted, innovation capacity and biosecurity oversight, on a 0–10 scale, higher meaning riskier.
  2. Global Science and engineering index

    Series index · SERIES · GS-15
    社会がリスクとその集中を測定し、モデル化し、低減するために必要な科学・工学・データの能力。
  3. Country readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 195 profiles
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  4. Regional readings

    Output · OUTPUT · 5 regions
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
  5. Global reading

    Output · OUTPUT · population or exposure weighted
    Published with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. Select a domain index to open its full construction; Simulate run plays the computation. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
03指数

Domain indices in this series

The Global Risks Index · GS-15 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global Science and engineering index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
インデックス 値 変化 変化 % 90% 区間 区分 · 確率 傾向 幅
技術集中リスクNXS-GRX · TEC – – – – –

Domains read: Technology and frontier, Social and human development, Governance and institutions.

04指標

75 indicators in scope

Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.

FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
SOC · 22GOV · 20TEC · 8
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標 分野 Sub-domain 構成要素 単位 レベル Crosswalks
失業率IND.MAC.labour.unemployment_rate MAC Labour market vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.5.2 ILO UNE_DEAP_SEX_AGE_RT
LIC-DSF 複合指標スコア(公表値、参考)IND.FIS.capacity.lic_dsf_composite_indicator FIS Debt-carrying capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
家計債務(GDP 比)IND.FIN.depth.household_debt.gdp FIN Financial depth and inclusion vulnerability % COUNTRY IMF_FSI FSHG_PT
口座保有率(成人)IND.FIN.depth.account_ownership FIN Financial depth and inclusion coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS SDG 8.10.2
重要鉱物の純輸入依存度IND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance ECO Export and import concentration vulnerability % COUNTRY
適応投資に向けた経済的準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN economic
適応に向けたガバナンスの準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN governance
適応に向けた社会的準備度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness CLI Adaptation readiness adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY ND_GAIN social
国外の再生可能水資源への依存率IND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency WAT Transboundary dependence exposure % COUNTRY
運用中の協力体制がある越境流域の面積IND.WAT.dependence.transboundary_cooperation.share WAT Transboundary dependence coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 6.5.2
壊滅的な自己負担医療費を負う人口IND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop HLT Health system capacity vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS
健康的な食事の費用IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_cost FOO Access and affordability vulnerability [USD] COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_PPP
健康的な食事を購入できない人口IND.FOO.access.healthy_diet_unaffordable FOO Access and affordability vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI CoHD_headcount
農業就業者(総就業者に占める割合)IND.FOO.agriculture.agri_employment_share FOO Agricultural production and dependence vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS
極度の貧困人口比率、1 日 3.00 米ドル(2021 年 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.extreme_poverty.usd300 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.DDAY SDG 1.1.1
貧困人口比率、1 日 4.20 米ドル(2021 年 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd420 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.LMIC
貧困人口比率、1 日 8.30 米ドル(2021 年 PPP)IND.SOC.poverty.poverty.usd830 SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.UMIC
国の貧困線における貧困人口比率IND.SOC.poverty.national_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 WB_WDI SI.POV.NAHC SDG 1.2.1
多次元貧困人口比率(グローバル MPI)IND.SOC.poverty.multidimensional_poverty SOC Poverty vulnerability % COUNTRY, ADM1 SDG 1.2.2 WB_WDI SI.POV.MPWB
ジニ係数IND.SOC.inequality.gini SOC Inequality vulnerability {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.POV.GINI
下位 40% の所得または消費のシェアIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_income_share SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.DST.FRST.20
下位 40% の消費または所得の伸びIND.SOC.inequality.bottom40_growth SOC Inequality adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SI.SPR.PC40.ZG SDG 10.1.1
不平等による人間開発の損失IND.SOC.inequality.human_development_loss SOC Inequality vulnerability % COUNTRY HDR loss
平均就学年数IND.SOC.education.mean_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR mys
予想就学年数IND.SOC.education.expected_years_schooling SOC Education adaptive capacity a COUNTRY HDR eys
学習貧困IND.SOC.education.learning_poverty SOC Education vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.LPV.PRIM SDG 4.1.1
成人識字率IND.SOC.education.adult_literacy SOC Education adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SE.ADT.LITR.ZS SDG 4.6.1
ジェンダー不平等指数(UNDP)IND.SOC.gender.gender_inequality_index SOC Gender vulnerability {score} COUNTRY HDR gii
女性の労働参加率IND.SOC.gender.female_labour_participation SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.TLF.CACT.FE.ZS
国会で女性が占める議席IND.SOC.gender.women_in_parliament SOC Gender adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SG.GEN.PARL.ZS SDG 5.5.1
少なくとも 1 つの社会保障給付の対象となる人口IND.SOC.protection.social_protection_coverage SOC Social protection coping capacity % COUNTRY SDG 1.3.1 ILO SDG_0131_SEX_SOC_RT WB_WDI per_allsp.cov_pop_tot
就労、就学、職業訓練のいずれもしていない若者IND.SOC.protection.youth_neet SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT
インフォーマル雇用(総就業者に占める割合)IND.SOC.protection.informal_employment SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.3.1 ILO SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT WB_WDI SL.ISV.IFRM.ZS
児童労働に従事する 5~17 歳の子どもIND.SOC.protection.child_labour SOC Social protection vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 8.7.1 ILO SDG_B871_SEX_AGE_RT WB_WDI SL.TLF.0714.ZS
人間開発指数(UNDP)IND.SOC.development.hdi SOC 人間開発 adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR hdi
不平等調整済み人間開発指数(UNDP)IND.SOC.development.ihdi SOC 人間開発 adaptive capacity {score} COUNTRY HDR ihdi
スラムに住む都市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share DEM Urbanisation vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
国民の発言力と説明責任(WGI)IND.GOV.quality.voice_accountability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_VA.EST
政治的安定と暴力の不在(WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST
政府の有効性(WGI)IND.GOV.quality.government_effectiveness GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_GE.EST
汚職の抑制(WGI)IND.GOV.quality.control_of_corruption GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_CC.EST
腐敗認識指数(Transparency International)IND.GOV.quality.corruption_perceptions GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
報道の自由スコア(RSF)IND.GOV.quality.press_freedom GOV Governance quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
法の支配(WGI)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.rule_of_law GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RL.EST
財産権とルールに基づくガバナンス(CPIA)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.property_rights GOV Rule of law coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PROP.XQ
未決拘禁者(受刑者人口に占める割合)IND.GOV.rule_of_law.unsentenced_detainees GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.3.2
企業の贈賄発生率IND.GOV.rule_of_law.bribery_incidence_firms GOV Rule of law vulnerability % COUNTRY WB_WDI IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS SDG 16.5.2
規制の質(WGI)IND.GOV.policy.regulatory_quality GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_RQ.EST
CPIA 総合評価(IDA 資源配分指数)IND.GOV.policy.cpia_overall GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.IRAI.XQ
CPIA 公共部門の管理と制度IND.GOV.policy.cpia_public_sector_management GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.PUBS.XQ
CPIA 公共部門の透明性、説明責任、汚職IND.GOV.policy.cpia_transparency GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.TRAN.XQ
歳入動員の効率性(CPIA)IND.GOV.policy.tax_administration GOV Policy and institutional quality coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.CPA.REVN.XQ
承認予算からの予算執行の乖離IND.GOV.policy.budget_execution_deviation GOV Policy and institutional quality vulnerability % COUNTRY SDG 16.6.1
統計パフォーマンス指標の総合スコアIND.GOV.statistics.spi_overall GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY WB_WDI IQ.SPI.OVRL WB_WDI IQ.SCI.OVRL
出生登録の完全性IND.GOV.statistics.birth_registration GOV Statistical capacity coping capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI SP.REG.BRTH.ZS SDG 16.9.1
前回の国勢調査からの年数IND.GOV.statistics.years_since_census GOV Statistical capacity vulnerability a COUNTRY SDG 17.19.2
ビジネス環境スコア(B-READY)IND.GOV.business.bready_overall GOV Business environment coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
重要鉱物の輸入供給元集中度IND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration ENE Critical minerals vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
公共交通機関を利用しやすい都市人口IND.INF.transport.public_transport_access INF Transport coping capacity % CITY, ADM1, COUNTRY SDG 11.2.1 ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018
災害で損壊または破壊された教育施設IND.INF.disruption.education_facilities_damaged INF Service disruption impact 1 COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI D-3
ITU GCI 法的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_legal CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
ITU GCI 組織的措置の柱IND.CYB.capability.gci_organizational CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {score} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Organizational Measures
データ保護・プライバシー法の施行IND.CYB.capability.data_protection_law CYB Cyber capability coping capacity {bool} COUNTRY ITU_GCI Legal Measures
電子政府の発展度IND.CYB.dependence.egovernment_development CYB Digital dependence exposure {score} COUNTRY
研究開発費総額(GDP 比)IND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS
人口 100 万人あたり研究者数IND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity /10*6 COUNTRY SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6
ハイテク輸出(工業製品輸出に占める割合)IND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports TEC Technology capability adaptive capacity % COUNTRY WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1
半導体の輸入供給元集中度IND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
クラウド・インフラ提供者の集中度IND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration TEC Concentration and dependence vulnerability 1 COUNTRY
外国または単一提供者の管理下にある AI 計算能力IND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
基盤モデル提供者の集中度IND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration TEC 人工知能 vulnerability % COUNTRY
高度封じ込め実験施設のバイオセーフティとバイオセキュリティの監督IND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight TEC バイオテクノロジー coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
仙台防災枠組に沿った国の DRR 戦略IND.CRS.drr.national_drr_strategy CRS DRR strategy coping capacity {score} COUNTRY SENDAI E-1 SDG 1.5.3 SDG 11.b.1 SDG 13.1.2
国の戦略に沿った DRR 戦略を持つ地方自治体IND.CRS.drr.local_drr_strategies CRS DRR strategy coping capacity % COUNTRY, ADM1 SENDAI E-2 SDG 1.5.4 SDG 11.b.2 SDG 13.1.3
ショック対応型社会保障の準備度IND.CRS.response.shock_responsive_social_protection CRS Response capacity coping capacity {score} COUNTRY
05ハザード

Hazard families this series reads

families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.

FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
フロンティア109HAZARDS
1 hazard domains (inner ring) and 16 families (outer ring), sized by hazard count. Select a segment to filter the table below. Source: Hazard Standard Nexus Hazard Standard.
ファミリー 分野 ハザード Count
AI system failure and misalignment フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … 11
AI security and model supply chain フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning 7
AI misuse and capability uplift フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI 8
Agentic AI acting at scale フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach 6
Algorithmic decision and structural harm フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … 12
Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … 10
バイオテクノロジーと合成生物学 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … 10
Nanotechnology and advanced materials フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race 5
Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception 7
Quantum technology and cryptographic transition フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment 4
気候介入技術 フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … 11
Space technology and orbital infrastructure フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples 7
Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure 3
Advanced and distributed manufacturing フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure 3
Energy-transition technology failures フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration 4
Distributed ledgers and digital assets フロンティア技術と指数関数的技術 Smart-contract and oracle exploit 1
06手法

Method libraries

Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.

45 methods

科学的保証

Unit Verification · Analytical Benchmark · Convergence Testing · Numerical Stability · Solver Tolerance · Mesh Grid Convergence · Reproducibility …

24 methods

リスクデータ

Source Discovery · Source Fitness · Rights Resolver · Freshness Resolver · Provenance Resolver · Data Quality · Missingness Semantics …

38 methods

普遍的な数学と統計

Robust Distribution · Empirical Distribution · Bayesian Updating · Hierarchical Bayesian · Extreme Value · Tail Risk · Copula Dependency …

07Users

Who uses it

Universities and research

Replicate every value. Study methods. Contribute data and review.

Governments and national risk agencies

Prioritise prevention and preparedness. Plan with subnational layers. Track Sendai targets. Co-develop a national index.

International financial institutions and development banks

Screen country and project context. Read fiscal resilience and protection gaps. Design pre-arranged finance questions.

UN system and humanitarian organisations

Compare needs across contexts with intervals. Watch weekly signals for review. Read outlooks for anticipatory planning.

08レポート

Nexus Reports

Edition code
GS-15
Edition status
予定
対象
Named by Nexus Reports

Nexus Reports

09引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk)): Global Science and engineering series (GRX-SER-GS-15), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/gs-15/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000073.
Series key
grix:SER.GS-15:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Domain keys
nis:IDX.TEC.concentration.technology_concentration_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A

Every country reads this series

Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.