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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-DEM · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

避難の圧力指数

Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-DEMEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressureValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不確実性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

構成

4 components

10 leaf indicators

対象範囲

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
4
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

One view of the demographic and mobility strain a country carries; the sub-indices stay visible so outflow and hosting pressure are never confused.

computation
How Displacement pressure is computed
Graph17 nodes
グラフ
01指標
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04柱
05総合
100%
索引
  1. 出身国別の難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees originating from the country at year end per 100,000 of the country’s mid-year population.
  2. 国内避難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Sum of the year-end conflict and disaster displacement stocks per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  3. 新たな国内避難（人口 100,000 人あたり）
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Conflict and disaster displacement movements of the year combined, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  4. 受け入れている難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees residing in the country at year end per 100,000 of the host’s mid-year population.
  5. 受け入れている庇護希望者（人口 100,000 人あたり）
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    People in the country whose claim for international protection is pending at year end, per 100,000 of the host population.
  6. 年齢従属人口指数
    Indicator · IND · %
    People younger than 15 or older than 64 per hundred people aged 15 to 64.
  7. 65 歳以上人口（総人口に占める割合）
    Indicator · IND · %
    Residents aged 65 years or more as a percentage of the mid-year population.
  8. 人口増加率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the mid-year population, in percent.
  9. 都市人口増加率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the urban population, in percent.
  10. スラムに住む都市人口
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the urban population living in households that lack one or more of improved water, improved sanitation, durable housing, sufficient living area or secure tenure.
  11. Displacement outflow sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 50.0%
    Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.
  12. Refugee hosting pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 25.0%
    Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.
  13. Age-structure pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.
  14. Unplanned urbanisation sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.
  15. 避難の圧力指数
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
  16. 人間とシステムの脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  17. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未実行進行中完了
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate displacement pressure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
ブラウザで動作
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03手法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
専門家
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
不確実性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; INFORM Risk 2024 vulnerability dimension (structure only)
非常に低い0.0〜< 2.0
低い2.0〜< 3.5
中程度3.5〜< 5.0
高い5.0〜< 6.5
非常に高い6.5 から 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Displacement outflow sub-index w 2

Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
出身国別の難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin33.3%
国内避難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster33.3%
新たな国内避難（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster33.3%

Refugee hosting pressure sub-index w 1

Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
受け入れている難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted66.7%
受け入れている庇護希望者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bunhcr-refugee-data-finder33.3%

Age-structure pressure sub-index w 0.5

Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
年齢従属人口指数IND.DEM.structure.age_dependency%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
65 歳以上人口（総人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
人口増加率IND.DEM.population.growth%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%

Unplanned urbanisation sub-index w 0.5

Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.

指標単位エビデンス出典割合
都市人口増加率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth%Class Bwb-wdi, un-wup50.0%
スラムに住む都市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share%Class Cun-habitat-urban-indicators, wb-wdi50.0%
05分野

Demography and mobility

Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement.

Sub-domain指標
人口4
Age structure3
Urbanisation3
Forced displacement11
Migration3

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN WPP; UNHCR; IDMC.

06指標

All 24 demography and mobility indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指標分野Sub-domain構成要素単位レベルCrosswalks
総人口IND.DEM.population.totalDEM人口context{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
人口密度IND.DEM.population.densityDEM人口context{persons}/km2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
人口増加率IND.DEM.population.growthDEM人口vulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
合計特殊出生率IND.DEM.population.fertility_rateDEM人口context{births}/{woman}COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
年齢従属人口指数IND.DEM.structure.age_dependencyDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
65 歳以上人口（総人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.structure.share_65plusDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
15 歳未満人口（総人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.structure.share_under15DEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
都市人口（総人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_shareDEMUrbanisationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
都市人口増加率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growthDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
スラムに住む都市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_shareDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
出身国別の難民IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_originDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
出身国別の難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRYSDG 10.7.4
受け入れている難民（庇護国）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hostedDEMForced displacementexposure{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
受け入れている難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRY
受け入れている庇護希望者（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRYUNHCR ASY
国内避難民、紛争と暴力（ストック）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
国内避難民、災害（ストック）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_total_displacement
国内避難民（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
新たな国内避難、紛争と暴力IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
新たな国内避難、災害IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
新たな国内避難（人口 100,000 人あたり）IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
純移動数IND.DEM.migration.net_migrationDEMMigrationcontext{persons}COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
純移動率IND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rateDEMMigrationcontext/10*3COUNTRYUN_WPP CNMR
国際移民ストック（人口に占める割合）IND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_shareDEMMigrationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
07引用

Displacement pressure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · DEM · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement pressure index, world
–
値は版とともに公開され、区間、区分、変化がここに表示されます。
前回の版
–
Range since 2016
–
結合総合
–
結合スコア S
–
パルス、直近 1 週間
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
手法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽出
1,000
Displacement pressure index, world, by edition

公開済みの値はまだありません。最初の版で、区間の帯と区分の境界とともに履歴がここに描かれます。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
アフリカ54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
南北アメリカ35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
アジア48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
ヨーロッパ44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
オセアニア14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
変動はまだありません。 前版からの変化は、第 2 版以降、その要因となった指標とともにここに掲載されます。
08値

Country values

FIG 5 · Displacement pressure index: countries (values when released)
地図を読み込み中
アンドラアンティグア・バーブーダバーレーンバルバドスコモロカーボベルデドミニカ国ミクロネシア連邦グレナダキリバスセントクリストファー・ネーヴィスセントルシアリヒテンシュタインモナコモルディブマーシャル諸島マルタモーリシャスナウルパラオシンガポールサンマリノサントメ・プリンシペセーシェルトンガツバルバチカンセントビンセント及びグレナディーン諸島サモア
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
タイル
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/dem/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
観測キー
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09シリーズ

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. SR-06Displacement and demographic changeForced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI5
SDG2
UNHCR1
UN_WPP1
11Nexus 全体で

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用と再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement pressure index (GRX-IDX-DEM), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/displacement-pressure/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000117.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

ステータス

The Global Risks Index の手法、構造、定義は準備段階の作業草案（2026 年）であり、レビューと意見募集のために配布されているもので、実施を目的としたものではありません。管理されたエビデンスの区切りから版が公表されるまで、値は一切表示されません。公表後の値には、区間、区分、出典、訂正の経路が付されます。シミュレーターは、公表された手法をあなたが選んだ数値で実行するものであり、NXS-GRX の値を表示することはありません。

NXS-GRX ではないもの

NXS-GRX は研究およびリスク分析の情報です。信用格付や ESG 格付ではなく、格付尺度を用いず、金融商品のベンチマークでも、公的統計でも、緊急警報や公式分類でも、助言でもありません。自然人の評価に用いてはなりません。リスククラスは公開された尺度上の区分であり、国や人の順位付けではありません。

機関と情報源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

すべての値には情報源の帰属表示が付され、情報源はそれぞれ独自のライセンスを保持します。外部の名称は相互運用性のためにのみ引用しています。Nexus が執筆したテキストは、公開時に CC BY 4.0 とする予定です。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.