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Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-DEM · VUL Human and systems vulnerability

流离失所压力指数

Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.

Construction Simulator Indicators
Page GRX-IDX-DEMEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressureValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

arithmetic

expert weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

不确定性

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation

结构

4 components

10 leaf indicators

覆盖范围

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
10
leaf indicators
4
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
4
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

One view of the demographic and mobility strain a country carries; the sub-indices stay visible so outflow and hosting pressure are never confused.

computation
How Displacement pressure is computed
Graph17 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
  1. 按原籍国统计的难民，每 100,000 人
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees originating from the country at year end per 100,000 of the country’s mid-year population.
  2. 境内流离失所者，每 100,000 人
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Sum of the year-end conflict and disaster displacement stocks per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  3. 新增境内流离失所，每 100,000 人
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Conflict and disaster displacement movements of the year combined, per 100,000 of the mid-year population.
  4. 收容的难民，每 100,000 人
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    Refugees residing in the country at year end per 100,000 of the host’s mid-year population.
  5. 收容的寻求庇护者，每 100,000 人
    Indicator · IND · /10*5
    People in the country whose claim for international protection is pending at year end, per 100,000 of the host population.
  6. 年龄抚养比
    Indicator · IND · %
    People younger than 15 or older than 64 per hundred people aged 15 to 64.
  7. 65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重
    Indicator · IND · %
    Residents aged 65 years or more as a percentage of the mid-year population.
  8. 人口增长率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the mid-year population, in percent.
  9. 城市人口增长率
    Indicator · IND · %
    Annual exponential rate of change of the urban population, in percent.
  10. 居住在贫民窟的城市人口
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of the urban population living in households that lack one or more of improved water, improved sanitation, durable housing, sufficient living area or secure tenure.
  11. Displacement outflow sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 2 · 50.0%
    Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.
  12. Refugee hosting pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 25.0%
    Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.
  13. Age-structure pressure sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.
  14. Unplanned urbanisation sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 0.5 · 12.5%
    Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.
  15. 流离失所压力指数
    Domain index · IDX · arithmetic
    Weighted aggregation of displacement outflow, refugee hosting pressure, age-structure pressure and unplanned urbanisation, on 0 to 10.
  16. 人类与系统脆弱性
    Pillar · PILLAR · 8 indices
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  17. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. 10 indicators, 4 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate displacement pressure on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
25
1
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03方法

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
IDENTITY
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
专家
Aggregation
arithmetic
Scale
0 to 10
不确定性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation, imputation
Framework basis
OECD/JRC Handbook (2008); JRC COIN 10-step guide; INFORM Risk 2024 vulnerability dimension (structure only)
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components

4 components, 10 indicators

Displacement outflow sub-index w 2

Composite of refugees originating from the country, the internal displacement stock and new internal displacements, each relative to population.

指标单位证据来源占比
按原籍国统计的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin33.3%
境内流离失所者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster33.3%
新增境内流离失所，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k/10*5Class Cderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict, derived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster33.3%

Refugee hosting pressure sub-index w 1

Composite of refugees and asylum-seekers hosted, each per 100,000 of the host population.

指标单位证据来源占比
收容的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bderived:nis:IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted66.7%
收容的寻求庇护者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100k/10*5Class Bunhcr-refugee-data-finder33.3%

Age-structure pressure sub-index w 0.5

Composite of the age dependency ratio, the share aged 65 and over and population growth.

指标单位证据来源占比
年龄抚养比IND.DEM.structure.age_dependency%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_65plus%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%
人口增长率IND.DEM.population.growth%Class Awb-wdi, un-wpp33.3%

Unplanned urbanisation sub-index w 0.5

Composite of urban population growth and the share of urban residents living in slums.

指标单位证据来源占比
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growth%Class Bwb-wdi, un-wup50.0%
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_share%Class Cun-habitat-urban-indicators, wb-wdi50.0%
05领域

Demography and mobility

Population size and structure, urbanisation, migration and forced displacement.

Sub-domain指标
人口4
Age structure3
Urbanisation3
Forced displacement11
Migration3

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): UN WPP; UNHCR; IDMC.

06指标

All 24 demography and mobility indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
DEM · 24
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
指标领域Sub-domain组件单位级别Crosswalks
总人口IND.DEM.population.totalDEM人口context{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI SP.POP.TOTL UN_WPP TPopulation1July
人口密度IND.DEM.population.densityDEM人口context{persons}/km2COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRIDWB_WDI EN.POP.DNST UN_WPP PopDensity
人口增长率IND.DEM.population.growthDEM人口vulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.GROW UN_WPP PopGrowthRate
总和生育率IND.DEM.population.fertility_rateDEM人口context{births}/{woman}COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.DYN.TFRT.IN UN_WPP TFR
年龄抚养比IND.DEM.structure.age_dependencyDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.DPND
65 岁及以上人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_65plusDEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS
15 岁以下人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.structure.share_under15DEMAge structurevulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.POP.0014.TO.ZS
城市人口，占总人口比重IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_shareDEMUrbanisationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS
城市人口增长率IND.DEM.urbanisation.urban_growthDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI SP.URB.GROW
居住在贫民窟的城市人口IND.DEM.urbanisation.slum_shareDEMUrbanisationvulnerability%COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS SDG 11.1.1
按原籍国统计的难民IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_originDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR
按原籍国统计的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRYSDG 10.7.4
收容的难民（庇护国）IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hostedDEMForced displacementexposure{persons}COUNTRYUNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG
收容的难民，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.refugees_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRY
收容的寻求庇护者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.asylum_seekers_hosted.p100kDEMForced displacementexposure/10*5COUNTRYUNHCR ASY
境内流离失所者，冲突和暴力（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP
境内流离失所者，灾害（存量）IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact{persons}COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_total_displacement
境内流离失所者，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
新增境内流离失所，冲突和暴力IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflictDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV
新增境内流离失所，灾害IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disasterDEMForced displacementimpact1COUNTRY, ADM1IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS
新增境内流离失所，每 100,000 人IND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100kDEMForced displacementimpact/10*5COUNTRY
净移民IND.DEM.migration.net_migrationDEMMigrationcontext{persons}COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.NETM UN_WPP NetMigrations
净移民率IND.DEM.migration.net_migration_rateDEMMigrationcontext/10*3COUNTRYUN_WPP CNMR
国际移民存量，占人口比重IND.DEM.migration.migrant_stock_shareDEMMigrationcontext%COUNTRYWB_WDI SM.POP.TOTL.ZS
07引用

Displacement pressure index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · DEM · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Displacement pressure index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
上一版
–
Range since 2016
–
耦合综合
–
耦合得分 S
–
脉搏，最近一周
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
方法
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
抽样次数
1,000
Displacement pressure index, world, by edition

尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
非洲54
DZA AGO BEN BWA BFA BDI CPV CMR CAF TCD COM COG CIV COD DJI EGY GNQ ERI SWZ ETH GAB GMB GHA GIN GNB KEN LSO LBR LBY MDG MWI MLI MRT MUS MAR MOZ NAM NER NGA RWA STP SEN SYC SLE SOM ZAF SSD SDN TGO TUN UGA TZA ZMB ZWE
美洲35
ATG ARG BHS BRB BLZ BOL BRA CAN CHL COL CRI CUB DMA DOM ECU SLV GRD GTM GUY HTI HND JAM MEX NIC PAN PRY PER KNA LCA VCT SUR TTO USA URY VEN
亚洲48
AFG ARM AZE BHR BGD BTN BRN KHM CHN CYP PRK GEO IND IDN IRN IRQ ISR JPN JOR KAZ KWT KGZ LAO LBN MYS MDV MNG MMR NPL OMN PAK PHL QAT KOR SAU SGP LKA PSE SYR TJK THA TLS TUR TKM ARE UZB VNM YEM
欧洲44
ALB AND AUT BLR BEL BIH BGR HRV CZE DNK EST FIN FRA DEU GRC VAT HUN ISL IRL ITA LVA LIE LTU LUX MLT MCO MNE NLD MKD NOR POL PRT MDA ROU RUS SMR SRB SVK SVN ESP SWE CHE UKR GBR
大洋洲14
AUS FJI KIR MHL FSM NRU NZL PLW PNG WSM SLB TON TUV VUT
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值

Country values

FIG 5 · Displacement pressure index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
安道尔安提瓜和巴布达巴林巴巴多斯科摩罗佛得角多米尼克密克罗尼西亚（联邦）格林纳达基里巴斯圣基茨和尼维斯圣卢西亚列支敦士登摩纳哥马尔代夫马绍尔群岛马耳他毛里求斯瑙鲁帕劳新加坡圣马力诺圣多美和普林西比塞舌尔汤加图瓦卢教廷圣文森特和格林纳丁斯萨摩亚
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/dem/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
观测键
nis:IDX.DEM.displacement.displacement_pressure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列

Series that read this index

GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk. GS-06Global DevelopmentPoverty, inequality, human development, demographic pressure and displacement as the ground on which shocks become losses. GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk. SR-06Displacement and demographic changeForced displacement, migration pressure, ageing, youth bulges and urbanisation as risk multipliers.
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
WB_WDI5
SDG2
UNHCR1
UN_WPP1
11贯穿 Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12引用

引用与再利用

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Displacement pressure index (GRX-IDX-DEM), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/displacement-pressure/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000117.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.

Country profiles All indices

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.