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Global Risks Index

The Global Risks Index · Methodology 1.0.0-draft

One grammar, seven instruments

Indicators to domains to pillars to composite, with intervals, classes, coupling, forecasts, scenarios, tails and a separate perception layer. Every method on this page runs in your browser on numbers you choose.

Composite Construction Explorers
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Method 1.0.0-draftValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · The risk chain
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
Every indicator sits on the chain; every value lands in a class with its probability.
451
指标定义
106
composites
7
instruments
1,000
draws per value

01原则

Eight principles

P1

一个指数系列，而非单一的整体得分

NXS-GRX （规范数据、来源追溯与风险）发布二十个领域指数、四个支柱指数、一个综合指数和六种工具。综合指数绝不在缺少各支柱和领域指数并列的情况下单独出现，任何独立维度都不会被悄然合并。

P2

附区间的等级，绝不使用排行榜

每个值都带有基于标准化、权重、插补和聚合的蒙特卡罗分析得出的 90% 区间。各国按风险等级划分并注明等级概率；页面按国名或代码列出国家，绝不按数值排列。

P3

无数据不等于零

缺失的输入显示为缺失，插补的输入会加以标注；当覆盖率低于方法规定的最低值时，数值不予公布。空白概况、不可用的来源与观测到的零值以不同方式呈现。

P4

每个值都可追溯到其来源

每个值都带有其来源版本、许可、检索时间、方法版本和转换链（W3C PROV）。任何地方的更正都会传播到所有依赖值并公开记录。

P5

测量值、模型值和感知值分开保存

状态符号区分观测、报告、估算、推断、预测、模拟、情景和专家输入。感知信号构成独立工具，绝不混入测量风险。

P6

从设计上即为系统性

独立风险与耦合调整风险并列报告，来自贸易、金融、能源、粮食、基础设施和信息领域的类型化依赖网络。

P7

受许可约束且可复现

只有当来源的许可允许该用途时，它才能进入公开数值；扣留的值会被计数，而非隐藏。每次发布都公开方法、代码路径、种子和摘要，因此任何数值都可以重新计算。

P8

信息，而非权威

NXS-GRX 是研究与风险分析信息。它不是评级、官方分类、预警、基准或建议，也绝不替任何机构作决定。

02流程

从来源到概况

Every indicator declares its place on the risk chain and its polarity, so aggregation never mixes directions silently.

computation

The NXS-GRX pipeline, from source to profile

Graph24 nodes
流程图
01来源
02Harmonise
03指标
04Sub-indices
05领域
06支柱
07Composite and instruments
08成果

100%
索引
  1. 事件流

    SOURCES · SOURCES · near real time
    Admitted alert, Earth-observation, conflict-event, price and market streams for the Pulse instrument.
  2. 205 个已登记来源

    SOURCES · SOURCES · licence-gated
    Every source is registered with its licence; nothing enters a public value its licence does not admit.
  3. 情景类别

    SOURCES · SOURCES · labelled
    Socio-economic and warming pathways and transition families, used as labelled scenario structures.
  4. 调查与专家征询

    SOURCES · SOURCES · perception
    结构化专家意见征询和公众调查，与测量风险分开保存。
  5. 依赖网络

    NETWORK · NETWORK · six layers
    贸易与投入产出、金融与债务、能源、粮食贸易、基础设施和信息联系。
  6. 协调序列

    HAR · HAR · units, areas, time
    Source series mapped to Nexus concepts and code lists; units, areas and frequency aligned; no imputation.
  7. 451 个指标

    IND · IND · Indicator Standard
    Native indicators with definitions, units, polarity, levels and crosswalks; flagged imputation only here.
  8. 86 个子指数

    SUB · SUB · normalised
    每个领域内经过标准化、加权和汇总的组成部分。
  9. 20 个领域指数

    IDX · IDX · 1,000 draws
    二十个领域指数，附有蒙特卡洛区间和敏感性分析。
  10. 系统性耦合得分

    COUPLING · COUPLING · S
    依存网络上的传染：DebtRank、清算和阈值级联。
  11. 危害与威胁暴露

    PILLAR · PILLAR · HTE
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  12. 人类与系统脆弱性

    PILLAR · PILLAR · VUL
    How susceptible are people, livelihoods, ecosystems and essential systems to harm when a shock arrives?
  13. 宏观金融与结构脆弱性

    PILLAR · PILLAR · MSF
    How much fiscal, financial, external, digital and technological room does the system have before stress turns into crisis?
  14. 缺乏应对与适应能力

    PILLAR · PILLAR · LCC
    Can institutions anticipate, absorb, respond, recover and adapt?
  15. 脉搏

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · weekly
    Nowcast anomaly against each country’s own history.
  16. 展望

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · 1 to 36 months
    经校准的事件概率及验证记分卡。
  17. 尾部

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · exceedance
    Exceedance curves, return-period losses, catastrophic register.
  18. 路径

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · to 2100
    Fan charts under named scenario families.
  19. 感知

    INSTRUMENT · INSTRUMENT · separate
    感知严重程度与感知差距。
  20. NXS-GRX 综合风险

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · geometric
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
  21. 195 个国家概况

    PROFILES · PROFILES · classes, intervals
    每个国家的所有领域、支柱和工具，从不排名。
  22. 54 个序列指数

    SERIES · SERIES · global to technology
    基于相同领域指数的专项指数。
  23. API、瓦片和批量文件

    ACCESS · ACCESS · machine
    Public cut, SDMX keys, vector tiles, bulk files.
  24. NXS-GRX 耦合风险

    COMPOSITE · COMPOSITE · × (1 + κ·S)
    Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
未运行进行中已完成
FIG 2. Select a stage to trace it; Simulate run plays the pipeline in order. Every stage keeps provenance, so a correction at a source reaches every value that depends on it. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
HazardExposureVulnerabilityImpactLikelihoodRiskCapacityResponseFinancingOutcome
03支柱

Pillars and domain indices

Pillar values are expert-weighted geometric means of their domain indices (equal weights in the baseline, recorded per release); a pillar needs two thirds of its domains, otherwise it is withheld.

HTE · 危害与威胁风险暴露

HAZMulti-hazard exposure indexgeometric complement · equal weights · 5 components · 17 indicators CLIClimate physical hazard indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 16 indicators CONConflict risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 4 components · 15 indicators SPCSpace-weather exposure indexproduct · equal weights · 2 components · 6 indicators CLIClimate transition exposure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 2 components · 5 indicators

VUL · 人类与系统脆弱性

SOCSocio-economic vulnerability indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 18 indicators DEMDisplacement pressure indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators FOOFood insecurity risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators WATWater security risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 4 components · 11 indicators HLTHealth security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 25 indicators ENVEnvironmental pressure indexarithmetic · equal weights · 5 components · 16 indicators ENEEnergy security risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 20 indicators INFInfrastructure fragility indexgeometric · expert weights · 5 components · 24 indicators

MSF · 宏观金融与结构性脆弱性

FISFiscal and public debt risk indexgeometric · expert weights · 7 components · 27 indicators FINFinancial stability risk indexMazziotta–Pareto · expert weights · 7 components · 28 indicators ECOExternal dependence risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 5 components · 22 indicators CYBCyber risk indexgeometric · equal weights · 3 components · 12 indicators TECTechnology concentration risk indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 10 indicators

LCC · 缺乏应对能力和适应能力

CRSLack of coping capacity indexgeometric · expert weights · 6 components · 26 indicators GOVGovernance weakness indexarithmetic · expert weights · 4 components · 16 indicators
04综合

Composite and coupled composite

The composite never appears alone: profiles show each pillar and domain beside it.

综合
Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
耦合综合
Coupled = Composite × (1 + κ·S), S = systemic coupling score in [0,1] from the dependency network, κ disclosed per release (baseline κ = 0.25); reported beside the standalone composite, never instead of it
不确定性
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, imputation, aggregation (geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto); 90% intervals; Sobol first-order and total-order indices per release
覆盖范围
Each pillar needs two thirds of its domain indices; otherwise the composite is withheld and the pillar shown alone
图 3 · 模拟器：从四个支柱到综合指数和耦合综合指数
支柱（0 至 10）
4.2
5.1
3.6
4.8
耦合与不确定性
0.4
0.25
0.4
–
在您的浏览器中运行

模拟器：综合值 = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^¼，每个支柱下限为 0.1；耦合值 = 综合值 × (1 + κ·S)。抽样会改变权重、聚合方式和输入。这些位置是起点，不是 NXS-GRX 值。基于您自己的输入进行模拟；不是测量结果。
05类别

Classes and intervals, never league tables

A class is printed with its probability (share of Monte Carlo draws inside the class). Below 60% the adjacent class is printed too (for example High, 54% · Very high, 41%). Fixed bounds keep classes comparable across editions; intervals show when two countries cannot be told apart. Lists are ordered by name or code.

很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
06Construction

Ten construction steps

The steps follow the OECD/JRC handbook on composite indicators and the statistical audit practice of the JRC Competence Centre on Composite Indicators, referenced for method only.

Theoretical framework Risk chain from hazard to outcome; four pillars; twenty index domains; explicit polarity and risk component for every indicator.
Data selection indicator definitions with SDMX-compatible keys, crosswalks to source code lists, evidence class A–E and the licence register.
Missing data Flagged imputation only at IND layer (dimension mean, indicator median, multiple imputation); modelled share capped per composite; coverage minimum two thirds.
Multivariate analysis Correlation structure, principal components and Cronbach’s alpha per sub-index; incoherent components are re-specified before release.
Normalisation Min–max with fixed goalposts, percentile rank or identity on native 0–10 scales; skew and kurtosis treatment (winsorisation, log) above |skew| 2 and kurtosis 3.5.
Weighting and aggregation Equal or expert weights recorded per composite; geometric, arithmetic, Mazziotta–Pareto, product or geometric-complement aggregation as each definition declares; floor 0.1 before geometric means.
Uncertainty and sensitivity At least 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over the declared alternatives; 90% intervals, class probabilities and Sobol indices published with every release.
Back to the data Driver decomposition to indicator level; every value opens to its inputs, sources and transformation chain.
Links to other indicators Published crosswalks and correlation checks against established indices, used as validity evidence, never as inputs to be re-weighted.
Visualisation and dissemination Classes and intervals, never league tables; machine access through API, SDMX keys, tiles and bulk files; corrections and versions public.
07Release

One edition, run as a workflow

An edition is a run: the evidence cut freezes, sources pass the licence gate, 451 indicators are computed for 195 profiles, 1,000 draws give the intervals, and two approval gates stand before anything is published.

on: evidence cut

版本发布运行

In progressTriggered by NXS-GRX run service13 jobs2 approval gates6 matrix jobs

流程图
01Cut
02Ingest
03Ingest
04指标
05指数
06指数
07指数
08不确定性
09不确定性
10评审
11评审
12发布

100%
时间线
Job0 d5 d10 d15 d20 dTarget
Evidence cut frozenNXS-GRX run service1 h
Licence gateLicence register1 h
HarmoniseNXS-GRX run service6 h
IndicatorsNXS-GRX run service4 h
Sub-indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Domain indicesNXS-GRX run service1 h
Coupling scoreNXS-GRX run service2 h
1,000 Monte Carlo drawsMonte Carlo engine3 h
Intervals, classes, SobolMonte Carlo engine1 h
Statistical auditIndependent reviewer10 d
Steward reviewStewards10 d
Profiles and seriesFoundry2 h
Tiles and bulk filesFoundry2 h

End to end on the longest path: about 20.9 d of proposed target service levels. Gates wait for the people named; bars with a fading end have no fixed length.

步骤
  1. Evidence cut frozen

    Cut · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Input vintages pinned
    NXS-GRX 运行服务PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  2. 许可门槛

    Ingest · Licence register · 1 hour
    Admitted, isolated or withheld
    许可登记册
  3. Harmonise matrix · 150 sources

    Ingest · NXS-GRX run service · 6 hours
    Units, areas, time
    NXS-GRX 运行服务指标标准
  4. Indicators matrix · 451 × 195

    Indicators · NXS-GRX run service · 4 hours
    Derivations, flagged imputation
    NXS-GRX 运行服务指标标准
  5. Sub-indices matrix · 86

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    Normalise, weight, aggregate
    NXS-GRX 运行服务经测试的模型内核
  6. Domain indices matrix · 20

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 1 hour
    二十个领域指数
    NXS-GRX 运行服务经测试的模型内核
  7. Coupling score

    Indices · NXS-GRX run service · 2 hours
    DebtRank, clearing, cascades
    依赖网络经测试的模型内核
  8. 1,000 Monte Carlo draws matrix · 1,000

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 3 hours
    Weights, normalisation, aggregation, imputation
    蒙特卡罗引擎
  9. Intervals, classes, Sobol

    Uncertainty · Monte Carlo engine · 1 hour
    90% intervals · Class probabilities · Sensitivity
    蒙特卡罗引擎
  10. Statistical audit approval

    Review · Independent reviewer · 10 days
    Coherence, stability
    经测试的模型内核
  11. Steward review approval

    Review · Stewards · 10 days
    Method, evidence, public-safe screen
    PostgreSQL 账本（行级安全）
  12. Profiles and series matrix · 195 + 59

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    Published with intervals
    Public cut APINS-1 UNI catalogue
  13. Tiles and bulk files

    Publish · Foundry · 2 hours
    ISO3, ADM1, ADM2, H3 · Deposit with DOI
    矢量瓦片Zenodo 存缴
产出物
产出物 作业 执行方 阶段
Cut record Evidence cut frozen NXS-GRX 运行服务 Cut
Withheld counts 许可门槛 许可登记册 Ingest
HAR series Harmonise NXS-GRX 运行服务 Ingest
IND values 指标 NXS-GRX 运行服务 指标
SUB values Sub-indices NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
IDX values 领域指数 NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
S per country Coupling score NXS-GRX 运行服务 指数
Draw set with seed 1,000 Monte Carlo draws 蒙特卡罗引擎 不确定性
Uncertainty report Intervals, classes, Sobol 蒙特卡罗引擎 不确定性
Audit note Statistical audit Independent reviewer 评审
Release decision Steward review 管理方 评审
版本 Profiles and series Foundry 发布
瓦片 Tiles and bulk files Foundry 发布
DOI Tiles and bulk files Foundry 发布
已完成进行中等待批准排队中审批关口矩阵作业当前位置
From the evidence cut to published profiles, tiles and API: every stage keeps provenance and two review gates stand before release. The canvas shows where a request stands at the marked job; it is illustrative, not the status of a real request. Durations are proposed target service levels. Select a job for its steps, the people who act, the technology it runs on and what it produces.
08Aggregation

Five aggregation shapes

Try them on the fiscal and public debt index: switch the aggregation and watch the class and interval move.

Aggregation 功能 Domain indices using it
geometric Weighted geometric mean after a floor of 0.1: partial compensation, so weakness in one component cannot be fully offset by strength in another. 财政与公共债务风险 · 气候物理危害 · 水安全风险 · 卫生安全风险 · 社会经济脆弱性 · 能源安全风险 · 基础设施脆弱性 · 网络风险 · 缺乏应对能力
Mazziotta–Pareto Mean adjusted by the spread across components (non-compensatory): unbalanced profiles read as riskier than balanced ones with the same mean. 金融稳定风险 · 粮食不安全风险 · 冲突风险
arithmetic Weighted arithmetic mean: full compensation, used where components are substitutes. 外部依赖风险 · 气候转型暴露 · 环境压力 · 流离失所压力 · 治理薄弱 · 技术集中风险
geometric complement Complement of the geometric mean of complements: any single high exposure lifts the index, as for multi-hazard exposure. 多重危害暴露
product Product of normalised components: risk exists only where all components are present, as for space-weather exposure. 空间天气暴露
FIG 4 · Simulator: aggregate fiscal and public debt risk on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
4.0
6.0
3.0
5.0
25
1
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在您的浏览器中运行

Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
09Missing data

无数据不等于零

Imputation happens only at the indicator layer and is always flagged: dimension mean, indicator median or multiple imputation, as each definition declares. Each composite caps the share of its weight that may rest on modelled or imputed inputs and withholds its value below its coverage minimum. Coverage is published as a vector per country and indicator, never as a single complete flag; fragile and small-island states are where gaps cluster, so their coverage is shown first.

10状态

Status and value states

字形 状态 平均值
● 观测 由来源直接测量并发布
□ 报告 由发布方报告或声明，未经独立测量
◆ 估算 按所述方法估算或建模
▲ 推断 从相关信号推断
◇ 预测 关于未来时期的概率性陈述
◈ 模拟 模拟或随机事件集的输出
○ 情景 以特定情景为条件，并非预测
◎ 专家输入 结构化专家判断
Value state 平均值
PUBLISHED 在版本中发布，附区间、等级和来源
NO_DATA 无已接纳输入；不是零
INSUFFICIENT_EVIDENCE 覆盖率低于方法最低要求；数值已扣留
WITHHELD 输入数据的许可或公开安全审查不允许公开显示；仍计入统计
DEGRADED 发布时注明质量限制
11工具

脉搏

问题
自上一次结构性截止以来发生了哪些变化？
周期
每周临近预报，两次发布之间由事件驱动
方法
Mixed-frequency dynamic factor model over admitted event streams (multi-hazard alerts, Earth observation, conflict events, prices, shipping, market stress), expressed as a standardised anomaly against each country’s own history.
成果
  • Pulse anomaly by domain
  • Signals for review with their sources
  • Threshold crossings for subscribers
Status of outputs
观测推断
Pulse publishes with the first edition. Weekly anomalies by country and domain will appear here as a timeline, each signal with its sources and status.
12工具

展望

问题
在明确的时间范围内，特定不利结果发生的可能性有多大？
周期
每月，预测期为 1、3、12 和 36 个月
方法
Calibrated probabilistic ensembles (statistical, machine learning and structured expert elicitation) for defined events: conflict onset and escalation, acute food insecurity phase shifts, debt distress signals, disaster losses, displacement surges. Verified with Brier skill, reliability diagrams, ROC and CRPS against outcomes.
成果
  • Event probabilities with credible intervals
  • Forecast verification scorecards
  • Back-test record per model version
Status of outputs
预测
FIG 7 · Explainer: how forecasts are verified
0.15
1.4
1
0
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Explainer: 3,000 synthetic forecasts and outcomes from your settings, scored the way every Outlook model version is scored: reliability diagram, Brier score, skill against climatology and ROC area.
13工具

路径

问题
在通往 2030、2050 和 2100 年的不同未来情景下，风险如何变化？
周期
每个年度版本
方法
Pillar and domain values projected under SSP × warming-level combinations and central-bank-network transition scenario families (used as labelled scenario structures), with demographic, urbanisation, governance and conflict pathways; fan charts, not point paths.
成果
  • Fan charts per domain and pillar
  • Scenario cascades
  • Adaptation and transition levers
Status of outputs
情景模拟
FIG 8 · Explorer: a pathway fan chart to 2100
4
0.35
0.45
10
1
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Explorer: 2,000 paths from your drift, volatility and shock settings, shown as a fan chart (50% and 90% bands, median line) against the class bounds. Pathways editions project each domain under named scenario families; this explainer uses no scenario data.
14工具

尾部

问题
分布中罕见、严重的一端是什么样子？
周期
每个年度版本，随事件更新
方法
Event loss tables and year loss tables, exceedance-probability curves, probable maximum loss at 1-in-100 and 1-in-250, expected shortfall, compound-event copulas and a register of low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks.
成果
  • Exceedance curves and return-period losses where loss can be modelled
  • Protection-gap readings
  • Catastrophic and frontier risk register
Status of outputs
模拟模型
FIG 9 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
1.2
20
1.4
One risk-transfer layer
60
240
–
在您的浏览器中运行

Explorer: 20,000 simulated years from your frequency and severity settings; the exceedance curve, average annual loss, 1-in-100 and 1-in-250 annual losses, expected shortfall, and how one layer splits loss into retained, transferred and gap. Units are yours; nothing here is a modelled loss for any place.
15工具

耦合

问题
风险在系统和国界之间向何处传播？
周期
每个年度版本，每季度刷新网络
方法
Typed multi-layer dependency network (trade and input–output, finance and debt, energy, food trade, infrastructure and digital links); contagion estimated with DebtRank, Eisenberg–Noe clearing and threshold cascades; systemic importance and exposure scores per country and system.
成果
  • 系统性耦合得分 S
  • Coupled composite beside standalone
  • Transmission paths with status and references
Status of outputs
估算模拟
FIG 10 · Expected direct couplings between systems (row affects column)
WAT ENE FOO HLT BIO FIN TRD INF DIG SEC
水
Weak expected couplingModerate expected couplingStrong expected coupling
Schematic: the couplings the Coupling instrument expects to estimate. Strengths here are expectations from the literature the edition will cite, not estimates; each becomes ◆ ESTIMATED with its method and references in an edition.
FIG 11 · Simulator: how a shock cascades across systems
0.8
0.7
0.5
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水能源粮食卫生生物多样性金融贸易基础设施Digital安全

Simulator: a threshold cascade on a schematic network of systems. Edge strengths are expected couplings (weak, moderate, strong), not estimates; the shock, coupling, threshold and buffers are yours. NXS-GRX estimates couplings per edition before any coupled value is published.
16工具

感知

问题
感知风险与测量风险在哪些方面存在差异？
周期
年度专家与公众调查轮次
方法
Structured expert elicitation and public risk surveys, published as their own dimension with a perception-versus-measured gap per domain; never blended into the composite.
成果
  • Perceived severity by domain and horizon
  • Perception gap
  • Respondent coverage statement
Status of outputs
专家输入报告
Perception publishes with the first survey wave. Perceived severity by domain and horizon, with the perception gap against measured values.
17Geography

Six geographic levels

G0GlobalThe global series aggregates country values population- and exposure-weighted and reads the global systems directly. G1Country195 country profiles: the 193 UN member states and the 2 UN observer states. G2First administrative level (ADM1)Where boundaries and inputs admit; boundary versions are recorded. G3Second administrative level and below (ADM2+)Selected indicators and hazard layers. G4Cities and functional areasCities, river basins, coasts, corridors and islands. G5Hexagonal grid (H3)Resolution 4 to 7 for national views, finer for local layers; one fabric for hazard, exposure and capacity.
18Validation

Validation in public

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes

Back-testing of Structural and Outlook values against realised outcomes: disaster mortality and losses, acute food insecurity phases, conflict onset and fatalities, debt distress episodes, displacement.

Forecast verification with Brier skill score

Forecast verification with Brier skill score, reliability diagrams, ROC area and CRPS, published per model version.

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure

Independent statistical audit of each major methodology version (correlation structure, coherence, uncertainty and rank stability)

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations

Golden-value tests for every kernel with hand derivations, so a value can be recomputed by anyone.

Country right of reply and public correction log

Country right of reply and public correction log.

19Revisions

Revisions and corrections

Methodology carries a semantic version; a change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow, and a correction propagates to every dependent value with a public log entry.

草案已计算受证据约束已审查已批准发布已发布已更正已被取代
20Vintages

Point-in-time vintages and validation metrics

Validation follows the composite-indicator audit practice of the JRC and the early-warning literature (Kaminsky and Reinhart 1999; Alessi and Detken 2011).

Vintages

Nothing is overwritten

Every edition and every correction is a vintage with its snapshot, frozen inputs and method version. A past value stays retrievable as it was published, so any study can be rerun on the information available at the time.

Revisions

Revisions are measured

Each indicator publishes its revision record between vintages, as the mean absolute revision and its direction, so a reader can see which inputs move after first release.

稳定

Rank reversal is tested

Adding or removing a country or an indicator must not reorder the others beyond the uncertainty already reported; the test is part of each edition’s uncertainty analysis.

预警

Signals are back-tested

Forecast and trigger instruments are scored out of sample, in pseudo real time: AUROC with its interval, noise-to-signal ratio, usefulness against the cost of a missed event, and the Brier score for probabilities.

Comparability

Breaks are declared

A method change that breaks comparability is back-cast where inputs allow; otherwise the series carries a declared break and comparisons across it are refused.

Lab

Try the methods yourself

The Index Lab runs these construction and validation methods on your own numbers in the browser.

21Reproducibility

Recompute any value

Each release publishes definitions, method versions, code paths, random seeds and content digests; every kernel is tested against hand-derived golden values.

指标标准
451 indicators · 106 composites · 501 crosswalks
危害标准
14 domains · 120 families · 905 hazards · 281 HIPs 2025 hazards
model registry
670 methods in 23 fabrics
Release
Each edition is deposited with its definitions, method version and inputs, with a DOI

表单

Comment on the methodology

Open consultation on normalisation, weighting, aggregation, imputation, uncertainty and validation; every comment receives a disposition in the consultation record.

  1. 01填写标有（必填）的字段为必填项；其余内容有助于审核。
  2. 02编号您会在屏幕上获得一个编号；记录保存在本网站的 WordPress 数据库中。
  3. 03评审结果会公开记录。联系方式保留在本网站，绝不会公开或共享。
Form · grx-consult

此表单启用后将在此处打开。在此之前，请通过以下渠道提交： Nexus Reports 网关.

Disagree with a method?

Every method comment is answered in the review record, and accepted changes are versioned and back-cast.

Comment on the method Try the Index Lab

状态

The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。

NXS-GRX 不是什么

NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。

Pulse 信号和展望概率是供主管当局审查的信息，绝不是公共警报；官方警报只由获授权的当局发布。

机构与来源

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.