The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure
气候物理危害指数
0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
不确定性
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
结构
3 components
16 leaf indicators
覆盖范围
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
computation
How Climate physical hazard is computedGraph22 nodes
流程图
01指标
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04支柱
05综合
100%
索引
- 相对工业化前的地表升温Indicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- 年降水量变化Indicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- 相对海平面上升速率Indicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- 年内最热日（TXx）Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- 暖日占比（TX90p）Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
- 酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- 暖期持续时间（WSDI）Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- 年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- 年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- 极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- 最长连续干旱日数（CDD）Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- 相对工业化前的预估升温Indicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- 最热日气温预估变化Indicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- 最大五日降水量预估变化Indicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- 预估相对海平面上升Indicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- 低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比Indicator · IND · %Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- 气候物理危害指数Domain index · IDX · geometric0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- 危害与威胁暴露Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
未运行进行中已完成
02Simulator
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
在您的浏览器中运行
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03方法
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- 不确定性
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
很低0.0 至 < 2.0
低2.0 至 < 3.5
中3.5 至 < 5.0
高5.0 至 < 6.5
很高6.5 至 10.0
04Components
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
相对工业化前的地表升温IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
年降水量变化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
相对海平面上升速率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
年内最热日（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
暖日占比（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
暖期持续时间（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
最长连续干旱日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| 指标 | 单位 | 证据 | 来源 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
相对工业化前的预估升温IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
最热日气温预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
最大五日降水量预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
预估相对海平面上升IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
05领域
气候
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | 指标 |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
06指标
All 31 climate indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| 指标 | 领域 | Sub-domain | 组件 | 单位 | 级别 | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
相对工业化前的地表升温IND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
年降水量变化IND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
相对海平面上升速率IND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
年内最热日（TXx）IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖日占比（TX90p）IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
酷热日数变化（35 °C 及以上）IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
暖期持续时间（WSDI）IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
年内最大日降水量（Rx1day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
年内最大五日降水量（Rx5day）IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
极端湿润日降水量（R95pTOT）IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最长连续干旱日数（CDD）IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
相对工业化前的预估升温IND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最热日气温预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
最大五日降水量预估变化IND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
预估相对海平面上升IND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
低于未来 100 年一遇沿海洪水水位的人口占比IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
温室气体排放总量（不含 LULUCF）IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
人均温室气体排放量IND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
GDP 碳强度IND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
化石燃料租金，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
燃料出口，占商品出口比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
显性化石燃料补贴，占 GDP 比重IND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
NDC 2030 全经济范围排放目标IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
已提交国家适应计划IND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
适应投资的经济准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
适应的治理准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
适应的社会准备度IND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
人均获得的国际适应资金IND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
07引用
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
数值随版本发布；区间、类别和变化将显示在这里。
- 上一版
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- 耦合综合
- –
- 耦合得分 S
- –
- 脉搏，最近一周
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- 方法
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- 抽样次数
- 1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition
尚无已发布的数值。第一版发布后将在这里绘制历史，并附区间带和类别边界。
非洲54
美洲35
亚洲48
欧洲44
暂无变动。 自第二版起，与上一版相比的变化将在此列出，并附上驱动这些变化的指标。
08数值
Country values
FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
正在加载地图
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- 瓦片
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- 观测键
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09系列
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.→ GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.→ GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.→ GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems behind NXS-GRX.→ SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.→ SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.→ XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.→ TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.→
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
11贯穿 Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12引用
引用与再利用
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
状态
The Global Risks Index 的方法、结构和定义为预备性工作草案（2026），供审阅和评论，不供实施。在从受治理的证据截取中发布版本之前，不会出现任何数值；届时数值将附有区间、类别、来源及其更正途径。模拟器以您选择的数字运行已发布的方法，绝不显示 NXS-GRX 数值。
NXS-GRX 不是什么
NXS-GRX 是研究和风险分析信息。它不是信用评级或 ESG 评级，不使用任何评级尺度；它不是金融工具的基准，不是官方统计，不是紧急警报或官方分类，也不是建议。不得用于评估自然人。风险等级是已发布尺度上的区间，绝不是对国家或个人的排名。
机构与来源
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
每个数值均附有其来源的署名，这些来源保留各自的许可。外部名称仅为互操作性而引用。Nexus 撰写的文本拟在发布时采用 CC BY 4.0。
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.