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Il Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Indice di pericolo climatico fisico

0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).

Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incertezza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struttura

3 components

16 leaf indicators

Copertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.

computation
How Climate physical hazard is computed
Graph22 nodes
Grafo
01Indicatori
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilastro
05Composito
100%
Indice
  1. Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustriale
    Indicator · IND · K
    Difference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
  2. Variazione delle precipitazioni annue
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
  3. Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mare
    Indicator · IND · mm/a
    Linear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
  4. Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)
    Indicator · IND · Cel
    Highest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
  5. Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
  6. Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Change in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
  7. Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Annual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
  8. Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
  9. Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
  10. Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
  11. Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)
    Indicator · IND · d
    Maximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
  12. Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustriale
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  13. Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldo
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  14. Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosi
    Indicator · IND · %
    Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  15. Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mare
    Indicator · IND · m
    Median projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  16. Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quota
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  17. Chronic climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
  18. Climate extremes sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
  19. Projected climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
  20. Indice di pericolo climatico fisico
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  21. Esposizione a pericoli e minacce
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Non eseguitoIn corsoCompletato
FIG 2. 16 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
funziona nel vostro browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metodo

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incertezza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
Molto bassoda 0.0 a < 2.0
Bassoda 2.0 a < 3.5
Medioda 3.5 a < 5.0
Altoda 5.0 a < 6.5
Molto altoda 6.5 a 10.0
04Components

3 components, 16 indicators

Chronic climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialKClass Cberkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change33.3%
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change%Class Cgpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era533.3%
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendmm/aClass Bpsmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change33.3%

Climate extremes sub-index w 1

Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCelClass Chadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services12.5%
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changed/aClass Ccopernicus-era5, hadex312.5%
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationd/aClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysdClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%

Projected climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.

IndicatoreUnitàEvidenzeFontiQuota
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp20.0%
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change%Class Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_risemClass Cipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool20.0%
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share%Class Dipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop20.0%
05Dominio

Clima

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainIndicatori
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Indicatori

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicatoreDominioSub-domainComponenteUnitàLivelliCrosswalks
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Emissioni totali di gas serra escluso il LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsexposuret/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
Obiettivo di emissioni NDC 2030 per l'intera economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Piano nazionale di adattamento presentatoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Prontezza sociale per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Finanza internazionale per l'adattamento ricevuta pro capiteIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity[USD]COUNTRY
07Quotazione

Climate physical hazard index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
I valori sono pubblicati con l'edizione; qui compaiono intervallo, classe e variazione.
Edizione precedente
–
Range since 2016
–
Composito accoppiato
–
Punteggio di accoppiamento S
–
Pulse, ultima settimana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metodo
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Estrazioni
1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition

Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Nessuna variazione per ora. Dalla seconda edizione in poi, le variazioni rispetto all’edizione precedente sono elencate qui, insieme agli indicatori che le hanno determinate.
08Valori

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
Caricamento della mappa
AndorraAntigua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoreCapo VerdeDominicaMicronesia (Stati Federati di)GrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts e NevisSanta LuciaLiechtensteinMonacoMaldiveIsole MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingaporeSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluSanta SedeSaint Vincent e GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
FAO_FAOSTAT1
UNDRR_HIPS_20251
WB_WDI1
11In tutto il Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Cita

Cita e riutilizza

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.