Indice di pericolo climatico fisico
0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
3 components
16 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
- Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIndicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIndicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIndicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
- Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIndicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIndicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIndicator · IND · %Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- Indice di pericolo climatico fisicoDomain index · IDX · geometric0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- Esposizione a pericoli e minaccePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertezza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| Indicatore | Unità | Evidenze | Fonti | Quota |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
Clima
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indicatori |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
All 31 climate indicators
| Indicatore | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unità | Livelli | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Riscaldamento superficiale rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Variazione delle precipitazioni annueIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Tasso di innalzamento relativo del livello del mareIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Giorno più caldo dell'anno (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Quota di giorni caldi (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione dei giorni molto caldi (35 °C o più)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Durata dei periodi caldi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Giorno più piovoso dell'anno (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Cinque giorni più piovosi dell'anno (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Precipitazioni dei giorni molto piovosi (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Periodo secco più lungo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Riscaldamento previsto rispetto all'epoca preindustrialeIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione prevista della temperatura del giorno più caldoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variazione prevista delle precipitazioni dei cinque giorni più piovosiIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Innalzamento relativo previsto del livello del mareIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Popolazione al di sotto del futuro livello di piena costiera con periodo di ritorno di 100 anni, quotaIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Emissioni totali di gas serra escluso il LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Emissioni di gas serra pro capiteIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
Intensità di carbonio del PILIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Rendite da combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Esportazioni di combustibili, quota delle esportazioni di merciIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Sussidi espliciti ai combustibili fossili, quota del PILIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Obiettivo di emissioni NDC 2030 per l'intera economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Piano nazionale di adattamento presentatoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Prontezza economica agli investimenti per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Prontezza della governance per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Prontezza sociale per l'adattamentoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Finanza internazionale per l'adattamento ricevuta pro capiteIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edizione precedente
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composito accoppiato
- –
- Punteggio di accoppiamento S
- –
- Pulse, ultima settimana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Metodo
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Estrazioni
- 1,000
Nessun valore ancora pubblicato. La prima edizione traccia qui lo storico con la banda dell'intervallo e i limiti di classe.
Country values
- Tile
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chiave di osservazione
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Cita e riutilizza
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Stato
La metodologia, la struttura e le definizioni di The Global Risks Index sono una bozza di lavoro preparatoria (2026), diffusa per esame e commenti e non destinata all’attuazione. Nessun valore compare finché un’edizione non viene pubblicata a partire da un taglio di evidenze regolamentato; i valori riporteranno allora intervalli, classi, fonti e il relativo percorso di correzione. I simulatori applicano i metodi pubblicati ai numeri che scegli e non mostrano mai un valore NXS-GRX.
Che cosa non è NXS-GRX
NXS-GRX è un'informazione di ricerca e di analisi del rischio. Non è un rating creditizio o ESG e non usa alcuna scala di rating, non è un indice di riferimento per strumenti finanziari, non è una statistica ufficiale, non è un allerta di emergenza né una classificazione ufficiale e non è una consulenza. Non deve essere usato per valutare persone fisiche. Le classi di rischio sono fasce su una scala pubblicata, mai graduatorie di paesi o persone.
Istituzioni e fonti
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Ogni valore riporta l’attribuzione delle proprie fonti, che mantengono le rispettive licenze. I nomi esterni sono citati unicamente a fini di interoperabilità. I testi redatti da Nexus sono destinati alla licenza CC BY 4.0 al momento della pubblicazione.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.