Índice de amenaza climática física
0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
3 components
16 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
- Calentamiento de la superficie desde la era preindustrialIndicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- Cambio en la precipitación anualIndicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- Tasa de aumento relativo del nivel del marIndicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- Día más caluroso del año (TXx)Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- Proporción de días cálidos (TX90p)Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
- Cambio en los días muy calurosos (35 °C o más)Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- Duración de los periodos cálidos (WSDI)Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- Día más lluvioso del año (Rx1day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- Cinco días más lluviosos del año (Rx5day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- Precipitación de días muy lluviosos (R95pTOT)Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- Periodo seco más largo (CDD)Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- Calentamiento proyectado desde la era preindustrialIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Cambio proyectado en la temperatura del día más calurosoIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Cambio proyectado en la precipitación de los cinco días más lluviososIndicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Aumento relativo proyectado del nivel del marIndicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Población por debajo del futuro nivel de inundación costera de 100 años, proporciónIndicator · IND · %Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- Índice de amenaza climática físicaDomain index · IDX · geometric0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- Exposición a amenazasPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incertidumbre
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Calentamiento de la superficie desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
Cambio en la precipitación anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
Tasa de aumento relativo del nivel del marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Día más caluroso del año (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
Proporción de días cálidos (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Cambio en los días muy calurosos (35 °C o más)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
Duración de los periodos cálidos (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Día más lluvioso del año (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Cinco días más lluviosos del año (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Precipitación de días muy lluviosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Periodo seco más largo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| Indicador | Unidad | Evidencia | Fuentes | Proporción |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Calentamiento proyectado desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
Cambio proyectado en la temperatura del día más calurosoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Cambio proyectado en la precipitación de los cinco días más lluviososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Aumento relativo proyectado del nivel del marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
Población por debajo del futuro nivel de inundación costera de 100 años, proporciónIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
Clima
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
All 31 climate indicators
| Indicador | Dominio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidad | Niveles | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Calentamiento de la superficie desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Cambio en la precipitación anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Tasa de aumento relativo del nivel del marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Día más caluroso del año (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Proporción de días cálidos (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Cambio en los días muy calurosos (35 °C o más)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Duración de los periodos cálidos (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Día más lluvioso del año (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Cinco días más lluviosos del año (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Precipitación de días muy lluviosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Periodo seco más largo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Calentamiento proyectado desde la era preindustrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Cambio proyectado en la temperatura del día más calurosoIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Cambio proyectado en la precipitación de los cinco días más lluviososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Aumento relativo proyectado del nivel del marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
Población por debajo del futuro nivel de inundación costera de 100 años, proporciónIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero sin UTCUTSIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero per cápitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
Intensidad de carbono del PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Rentas de los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Exportaciones de combustibles, porcentaje de las exportaciones de mercancíasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Subsidios explícitos a los combustibles fósiles, porcentaje del PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Meta de emisiones de la CDN 2030 para toda la economíaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Plan nacional de adaptación presentadoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Preparación económica para la inversión en adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Preparación de la gobernanza para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Preparación social para la adaptaciónIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Financiación internacional para la adaptación recibida per cápitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edición anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Compuesto acoplado
- –
- Puntuación de acoplamiento S
- –
- Pulso, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Extracciones
- 1,000
Aún no hay valores publicados. La primera edición trazará aquí la serie histórica con su banda de intervalo y los límites de clase.
Country values
- Teselas
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Clave de observación
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Citar y reutilizar
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Estado
La metodología, la estructura y las definiciones de The Global Risks Index son un borrador de trabajo preparatorio (2026), difundido para examen y comentarios y no para su aplicación. Ningún valor aparece hasta que se publica una edición a partir de un corte de evidencia gobernado; los valores incluyen entonces intervalos, clases, fuentes y su vía de corrección. Los simuladores aplican los métodos publicados a las cifras que usted elija y nunca muestran un valor del NXS-GRX.
Lo que NXS-GRX no es
NXS-GRX es información de investigación y analítica de riesgos. No es una calificación crediticia ni ESG y no usa ninguna escala de calificación; no es un índice de referencia para instrumentos financieros, ni estadística oficial, ni una alerta de emergencia o clasificación oficial, ni asesoramiento. No debe usarse para evaluar a personas físicas. Las clases de riesgo son bandas en una escala publicada, nunca clasificaciones de países ni de personas.
Instituciones y fuentes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor lleva la atribución de sus fuentes, que conservan sus propias licencias. Los nombres externos se citan únicamente a efectos de interoperabilidad. Los textos de autoría de Nexus están destinados a publicarse bajo CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.