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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Fiziksel iklim tehlikesi endeksi

0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).

Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Belirsizlik

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Yapı

3 components

16 leaf indicators

Kapsam

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01İnşaat

From indicators to the composite

The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.

computation
How Climate physical hazard is computed
Graph22 nodes
Grafik
01Göstergeler
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Sütun
05Bileşik
100%
Dizin
  1. Sanayi öncesinden bu yana yüzey ısınması
    Indicator · IND · K
    Difference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
  2. Yıllık yağıştaki değişim
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
  3. Göreli deniz seviyesi yükselme hızı
    Indicator · IND · mm/a
    Linear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
  4. Yılın en sıcak günü (TXx)
    Indicator · IND · Cel
    Highest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
  5. Sıcak günlerin payı (TX90p)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
  6. Çok sıcak günlerdeki değişim (35 °C veya üzeri)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Change in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
  7. Sıcak dönem süresi (WSDI)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Annual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
  8. Yılın en yağışlı günü (Rx1day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
  9. Yılın en yağışlı beş günü (Rx5day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
  10. Çok yağışlı günlerden gelen yağış (R95pTOT)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
  11. En uzun kurak dönem (CDD)
    Indicator · IND · d
    Maximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
  12. Sanayi öncesinden bu yana öngörülen ısınma
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  13. En sıcak gün sıcaklığında öngörülen değişim
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  14. En yağışlı beş günlük yağışta öngörülen değişim
    Indicator · IND · %
    Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  15. Öngörülen göreli deniz seviyesi yükselmesi
    Indicator · IND · m
    Median projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  16. Gelecekteki 100 yıllık kıyı taşkını seviyesinin altındaki nüfus, pay
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  17. Chronic climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
  18. Climate extremes sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
  19. Projected climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
  20. Fiziksel iklim tehlikesi endeksi
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  21. Tehlike ve tehdit maruziyeti
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
ÇalıştırılmadıSürüyorTamamlandı
FIG 2. 16 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simülatör

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
tarayıcınızda çalışır
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Yöntem

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Belirsizlik
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
Çok düşük0.0 ile < 2.0 arası
Düşük2.0 ile < 3.5 arası
Orta3.5 ile < 5.0 arası
Yüksek5.0 ile < 6.5 arası
Çok yüksek6.5 ile 10.0
04Components

3 components, 16 indicators

Chronic climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana yüzey ısınmasıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialKClass Cberkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change33.3%
Yıllık yağıştaki değişimIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change%Class Cgpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era533.3%
Göreli deniz seviyesi yükselme hızıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendmm/aClass Bpsmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change33.3%

Climate extremes sub-index w 1

Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Yılın en sıcak günü (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCelClass Chadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services12.5%
Sıcak günlerin payı (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Çok sıcak günlerdeki değişim (35 °C veya üzeri)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changed/aClass Ccopernicus-era5, hadex312.5%
Sıcak dönem süresi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationd/aClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Yılın en yağışlı günü (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Yılın en yağışlı beş günü (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Çok yağışlı günlerden gelen yağış (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
En uzun kurak dönem (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysdClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%

Projected climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.

GöstergeBirimKanıtKaynaklarPay
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana öngörülen ısınmaIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp20.0%
En sıcak gün sıcaklığında öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
En yağışlı beş günlük yağışta öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change%Class Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Öngörülen göreli deniz seviyesi yükselmesiIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_risemClass Cipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool20.0%
Gelecekteki 100 yıllık kıyı taşkını seviyesinin altındaki nüfus, payIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share%Class Dipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop20.0%
05Alan

İklim

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainGöstergeler
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Göstergeler

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
GöstergeAlanSub-domainBileşenBirimDüzeylerCrosswalks
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana yüzey ısınmasıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Yıllık yağıştaki değişimIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Göreli deniz seviyesi yükselme hızıIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Yılın en sıcak günü (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Sıcak günlerin payı (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Çok sıcak günlerdeki değişim (35 °C veya üzeri)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Sıcak dönem süresi (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Yılın en yağışlı günü (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Yılın en yağışlı beş günü (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Çok yağışlı günlerden gelen yağış (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En uzun kurak dönem (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesmaruziyet%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Sanayi öncesinden bu yana öngörülen ısınmaIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En sıcak gün sıcaklığında öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
En yağışlı beş günlük yağışta öngörülen değişimIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Öngörülen göreli deniz seviyesi yükselmesiIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Gelecekteki 100 yıllık kıyı taşkını seviyesinin altındaki nüfus, payIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsmaruziyet%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
LULUCF hariç toplam sera gazı emisyonlarıIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsmaruziyetMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Kişi başına sera gazı emisyonlarıIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsmaruziyett/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
GSYH'nin karbon yoğunluğuIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsmaruziyetkg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsmaruziyetMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Fosil yakıt rantları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Yakıt ihracatı, mal ihracatının payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Açık fosil yakıt sübvansiyonları, GSYH payıIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposuremaruziyet%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
NDC 2030 ekonomi geneli emisyon hedefiIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Ulusal uyum planı sunulduIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Uyum yatırımı için ekonomik hazırlıkIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Uyum için yönetişim hazırlığıIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Uyum için toplumsal hazırlıkIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Kişi başına alınan uluslararası uyum finansmanıIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessuyum kapasitesi[USD]COUNTRY
07Gösterge değeri

Climate physical hazard index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
Değerler baskıyla yayımlanır; aralık, sınıf ve değişim burada görünür.
Önceki baskı
–
Range since 2016
–
Bağlantılı bileşik
–
Bağlantı puanı S
–
Pulse, son hafta
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Yöntem
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Çekilişler
1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition

Henüz yayımlanmış değer yok. İlk baskı, geçmişi burada aralık bandı ve sınıf sınırlarıyla çizer.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Henüz değişiklik yok. Önceki sürümden bu yana olan değişiklikler, ikinci sürümden itibaren bunlara yol açan göstergelerle birlikte burada listelenir.
08Değerler

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
Harita yükleniyor
AndorraAntigua ve BarbudaBahreynBarbadosKomorlarYeşil Burun AdalarıDominikaMikronezyaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts ve NevisSaint LuciaLihtenştaynMonakoMaldivlerMarshall AdalarıMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapurSan MarinoSão Tomé ve PríncipeSeyşellerTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent ve GrenadinlerSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Döşemeler
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Gözlem anahtarı
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
FAO_FAOSTAT1
UNDRR_HIPS_20251
WB_WDI1
11Nexus genelinde

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Atıf

Atıf ve yeniden kullanım

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.