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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Índice de ameaça climática física

0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).

Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Incerteza

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Estrutura

3 components

16 leaf indicators

Cobertura

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.

computation
How Climate physical hazard is computed
Graph22 nodes
Grafo
01Indicadores
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Composto
100%
Índice
  1. Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrial
    Indicator · IND · K
    Difference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
  2. Variação da precipitação anual
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
  3. Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do mar
    Indicator · IND · mm/a
    Linear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
  4. Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)
    Indicator · IND · Cel
    Highest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
  5. Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
  6. Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Change in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
  7. Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Annual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
  8. Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
  9. Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
  10. Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
  11. Período seco mais longo (CDD)
    Indicator · IND · d
    Maximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
  12. Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrial
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  13. Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quente
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  14. Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvosos
    Indicator · IND · %
    Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  15. Elevação relativa projetada do nível do mar
    Indicator · IND · m
    Median projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  16. População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  17. Chronic climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
  18. Climate extremes sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
  19. Projected climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
  20. Índice de ameaça climática física
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  21. Exposição a ameaças
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Não executadoEm cursoConcluído
FIG 2. 16 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
funciona no seu navegador
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Método

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Incerteza
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
Muito baixo0.0 a < 2.0
Baixo2.0 a < 3.5
Médio3.5 a < 5.0
Alto5.0 a < 6.5
Muito alto6.5 a 10.0
04Components

3 components, 16 indicators

Chronic climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialKClass Cberkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change33.3%
Variação da precipitação anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change%Class Cgpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era533.3%
Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendmm/aClass Bpsmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change33.3%

Climate extremes sub-index w 1

Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCelClass Chadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services12.5%
Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changed/aClass Ccopernicus-era5, hadex312.5%
Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationd/aClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Período seco mais longo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysdClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%

Projected climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.

IndicadorUnidadeEvidênciasFontesParcela
Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp20.0%
Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quenteIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change%Class Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Elevação relativa projetada do nível do marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_risemClass Cipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool20.0%
População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share%Class Dipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop20.0%
05Domínio

Clima

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainIndicadores
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Indicadores

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndicadorDomínioSub-domainComponenteUnidadeNíveisCrosswalks
Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Variação da precipitação anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Período seco mais longo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quenteIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Elevação relativa projetada do nível do marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Emissões totais de gases de efeito estufa, excluindo LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emissões de gases de efeito estufa per capitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsexposuret/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensidade de carbono do PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rendas de combustíveis fósseis, em % do PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Exportações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subsídios explícitos a combustíveis fósseis, em % do PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
Meta de emissões da NDC 2030 para toda a economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Plano nacional de adaptação apresentadoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Preparação social para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Financiamento internacional para adaptação recebido per capitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity[USD]COUNTRY
07Cotação

Climate physical hazard index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
Os valores são publicados com a edição; o intervalo, a classe e a variação aparecem aqui.
Edição anterior
–
Range since 2016
–
Composto acoplado
–
Pontuação de acoplamento S
–
Pulse, última semana
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Método
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sorteios
1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition

Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Ainda não há variações. As alterações desde a edição anterior serão listadas aqui a partir da segunda edição, com os indicadores que as motivaram.
08Valores

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
Carregando o mapa
AndorraAntígua e BarbudaBahreinBarbadosComoresCabo VerdeDominicaMicronésia (Estados Federados da)GranadaQuiribátiSão Cristóvão e NévisSanta LúciaListenstaineMônacoMaldivasIlhas MarshallMaltaMaurícioNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSão Tomé e PríncipeSeichelesTongaTuvaluSanta SéSão Vicente e GranadinasSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Chave de observação
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
FAO_FAOSTAT1
UNDRR_HIPS_20251
WB_WDI1
11Em todo o Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Citar

Citar e reutilizar

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.