Índice de ameaça climática física
0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
3 components
16 leaf indicators
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
- Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrialIndicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- Variação da precipitação anualIndicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do marIndicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
- Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- Período seco mais longo (CDD)Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrialIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quenteIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvososIndicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Elevação relativa projetada do nível do marIndicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %Indicator · IND · %Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- Índice de ameaça climática físicaDomain index · IDX · geometric0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- Exposição a ameaçasPillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Run this index’s own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- min–max rescaling
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Incerteza
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
Variação da precipitação anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Período seco mais longo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| Indicador | Unidade | Evidências | Fontes | Parcela |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quenteIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
Elevação relativa projetada do nível do marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
Clima
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indicadores |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
All 31 climate indicators
| Indicador | Domínio | Sub-domain | Componente | Unidade | Níveis | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aquecimento da superfície desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
Variação da precipitação anualIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Taxa de elevação relativa do nível do marIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
Dia mais quente do ano (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Proporção de dias quentes (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variação dos dias muito quentes (35 °C ou mais)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Duração dos períodos quentes (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Dia mais chuvoso do ano (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
Cinco dias mais chuvosos do ano (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Precipitação dos dias muito chuvosos (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Período seco mais longo (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
Aquecimento projetado desde o período pré-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variação projetada da temperatura do dia mais quenteIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Variação projetada da precipitação dos cinco dias mais chuvososIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
Elevação relativa projetada do nível do marIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
População abaixo do nível futuro de inundação costeira de 100 anos, em %IND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
Emissões totais de gases de efeito estufa, excluindo LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
Emissões de gases de efeito estufa per capitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
Intensidade de carbono do PIBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
Rendas de combustíveis fósseis, em % do PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
Exportações de combustíveis, em % das exportações de mercadoriasIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
Subsídios explícitos a combustíveis fósseis, em % do PIBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
Meta de emissões da NDC 2030 para toda a economiaIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Plano nacional de adaptação apresentadoIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
Preparação econômica para investimentos em adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
Preparação da governança para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
Preparação social para a adaptaçãoIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
Financiamento internacional para adaptação recebido per capitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
- Edição anterior
- –
- Range since 2016
- –
- Composto acoplado
- –
- Pontuação de acoplamento S
- –
- Pulse, última semana
- –
- Outlook, 12 months
- –
- Método
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Sorteios
- 1,000
Ainda não há valores publicados. A primeira edição traça aqui o histórico com a faixa do intervalo e os limites de classe.
Country values
- Blocos
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Chave de observação
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Series that read this index
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
Citar e reutilizar
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Situação
A metodologia, a estrutura e as definições do The Global Risks Index constituem um projeto de trabalho preparatório (2026), divulgado para revisão e comentários e não para implementação. Nenhum valor aparece até que uma edição seja publicada a partir de um corte de evidências governado; os valores passam então a ter intervalos, classes, fontes e o respectivo percurso de correção. Os simuladores executam os métodos publicados sobre números que você escolhe e nunca mostram um valor do NXS-GRX.
O que o NXS-GRX não é
O NXS-GRX é informação de pesquisa e de análise de risco. Não é rating de crédito ou ESG e não usa escala de rating, não é referência para instrumentos financeiros, não é estatística oficial, não é alerta de emergência nem classificação oficial e não é aconselhamento. Não deve ser usado para avaliar pessoas físicas. As classes de risco são faixas em uma escala publicada, nunca classificações de países ou pessoas.
Instituições e fontes
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), through GCRI US in Washington, DC and GCRI Canada in Ontario, with GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organisation; The Global Risks Forum (GRF); and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm’s length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Cada valor inclui a atribuição das suas fontes, que mantêm as suas próprias licenças. Os nomes externos são citados apenas para fins de interoperabilidade. Os textos de autoria da Nexus destinam-se a ser publicados sob CC BY 4.0.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d’analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.