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The Global Risks Index
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

Indeks bahaya fisik iklim

0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).

Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

Ketidakpastian

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

Struktur

3 components

16 leaf indicators

Cakupan

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Konstruksi

From indicators to the composite

The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.

computation
How Climate physical hazard is computed
Graph22 nodes
Grafik
01Indikator
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pilar
05Komposit
100%
Indeks
  1. Pemanasan permukaan sejak masa praindustri
    Indicator · IND · K
    Difference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
  2. Perubahan curah hujan tahunan
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
  3. Laju kenaikan muka laut relatif
    Indicator · IND · mm/a
    Linear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
  4. Hari terpanas dalam setahun (TXx)
    Indicator · IND · Cel
    Highest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
  5. Porsi hari hangat (TX90p)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
  6. Perubahan jumlah hari sangat panas (35 °C atau lebih)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Change in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
  7. Durasi periode hangat (WSDI)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Annual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
  8. Hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx1day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
  9. Lima hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx5day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
  10. Curah hujan dari hari sangat basah (R95pTOT)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
  11. Periode kering terpanjang (CDD)
    Indicator · IND · d
    Maximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
  12. Proyeksi pemanasan sejak masa praindustri
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  13. Proyeksi perubahan suhu hari terpanas
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  14. Proyeksi perubahan curah hujan lima hari terbasah
    Indicator · IND · %
    Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  15. Proyeksi kenaikan muka laut relatif
    Indicator · IND · m
    Median projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  16. Penduduk di bawah tingkat banjir pesisir 100 tahunan di masa depan, porsi
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  17. Chronic climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
  18. Climate extremes sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
  19. Projected climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
  20. Indeks bahaya fisik iklim
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  21. Paparan bahaya dan ancaman
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Belum dijalankanSedang berjalanSelesai
FIG 2. 16 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
berjalan di peramban Anda
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03Metode

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
Ketidakpastian
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
Sangat rendah0.0 hingga < 2.0
Rendah2.0 hingga < 3.5
Sedang3.5 hingga < 5.0
Tinggi5.0 hingga < 6.5
Sangat tinggi6.5 hingga 10.0
04Components

3 components, 16 indicators

Chronic climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Pemanasan permukaan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialKClass Cberkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change33.3%
Perubahan curah hujan tahunanIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change%Class Cgpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era533.3%
Laju kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendmm/aClass Bpsmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change33.3%

Climate extremes sub-index w 1

Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Hari terpanas dalam setahun (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCelClass Chadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services12.5%
Porsi hari hangat (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Perubahan jumlah hari sangat panas (35 °C atau lebih)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changed/aClass Ccopernicus-era5, hadex312.5%
Durasi periode hangat (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationd/aClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Lima hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
Curah hujan dari hari sangat basah (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
Periode kering terpanjang (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysdClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%

Projected climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.

IndikatorUnitBuktiSumberProporsi
Proyeksi pemanasan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp20.0%
Proyeksi perubahan suhu hari terpanasIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Proyeksi perubahan curah hujan lima hari terbasahIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change%Class Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
Proyeksi kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_risemClass Cipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool20.0%
Penduduk di bawah tingkat banjir pesisir 100 tahunan di masa depan, porsiIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share%Class Dipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop20.0%
05Domain

Iklim

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainIndikator
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06Indikator

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
IndikatorDomainSub-domainKomponenUnitTingkatCrosswalks
Pemanasan permukaan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
Perubahan curah hujan tahunanIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Laju kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
Hari terpanas dalam setahun (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Porsi hari hangat (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Perubahan jumlah hari sangat panas (35 °C atau lebih)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Durasi periode hangat (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
Lima hari terbasah dalam setahun (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Curah hujan dari hari sangat basah (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Periode kering terpanjang (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesketerpaparan%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
Proyeksi pemanasan sejak masa praindustriIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi perubahan suhu hari terpanasIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi perubahan curah hujan lima hari terbasahIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Proyeksi kenaikan muka laut relatifIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
Penduduk di bawah tingkat banjir pesisir 100 tahunan di masa depan, porsiIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsketerpaparan%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
Total emisi gas rumah kaca tanpa LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsketerpaparanMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
Emisi gas rumah kaca per kapitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsketerpaparant/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
Intensitas karbon PDBIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsketerpaparankg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsketerpaparanMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
Rente bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
Ekspor bahan bakar, porsi terhadap ekspor barangIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
Subsidi eksplisit bahan bakar fosil, porsi terhadap PDBIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureketerpaparan%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
Target emisi seluruh perekonomian NDC 2030IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Rencana adaptasi nasional telah diserahkanIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
Kesiapan ekonomi untuk investasi adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
Kesiapan tata kelola untuk adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
Kesiapan sosial untuk adaptasiIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
Pendanaan adaptasi internasional yang diterima per kapitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinesskapasitas adaptif[USD]COUNTRY
07Kuotasi

Climate physical hazard index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
Nilai terbit bersama edisi; interval, kelas, dan perubahan muncul di sini.
Edisi sebelumnya
–
Range since 2016
–
Komposit terkait
–
Skor keterkaitan S
–
Pulse, minggu terakhir
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
Metode
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Sampel
1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition

Belum ada nilai yang diterbitkan. Edisi pertama menggambar riwayat di sini dengan pita interval dan batas kelas.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
Belum ada pergerakan. Perubahan sejak edisi sebelumnya dicantumkan di sini mulai edisi kedua, beserta indikator yang mendorongnya.
08Nilai

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
Memuat peta
AndorraAntigua dan BarbudaBahrainBarbadosKomoroTanjung VerdeDominikaMikronesiaGrenadaKiribatiSaint Kitts dan NevisSaint LuciaLiechtensteinMonakoMaladewaKepulauan MarshallMaltaMauritiusNauruPalauSingapuraSan MarinoSao Tome dan PrincipeSeychellesTongaTuvaluVatikanSaint Vincent dan GrenadineSamoa
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Ubin peta
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
Kunci observasi
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
FAO_FAOSTAT1
UNDRR_HIPS_20251
WB_WDI1
11Di seluruh Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12Kutip

Kutip dan gunakan kembali

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.