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⁨The Global Risks Index⁩
The Global Risks Index · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure

شاخص مخاطرهٔ فیزیکی اقلیمی

0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).

Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedMethod v1.0.0-draft
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation

geometric

equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric

عدم قطعیت

1,000 draws

normalisation, weights, aggregation

ساختار

3 components

16 leaf indicators

پوشش

67% minimum

modelled share ≤ 20%

From the Indicator Standard definition of this index.
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Construction

From indicators to the composite

The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.

computation
How Climate physical hazard is computed
Graph22 nodes
گراف
01شاخص‌ها
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04رکن
05ترکیبی
100%
نمایه
  1. گرمایش سطحی از دوران پیشاصنعتی
    Indicator · IND · K
    Difference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850–1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850–1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
  2. تغییر بارش سالانه
    Indicator · IND · %
    Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961–1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
  3. نرخ افزایش نسبی سطح دریا
    Indicator · IND · mm/a
    Linear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
  4. گرم‌ترین روز سال (TXx)
    Indicator · IND · Cel
    Highest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
  5. سهم روزهای گرم (TX90p)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10% is the baseline expectation.
  6. تغییر در روزهای بسیار گرم (35 °C یا بیشتر)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Change in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961–1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
  7. مدت دوره‌های گرم (WSDI)
    Indicator · IND · d/a
    Annual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
  8. پرباران‌ترین روز سال (Rx1day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
  9. پرباران‌ترین پنج روز سال (Rx5day)
    Indicator · IND · mm
    Maximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
  10. بارش روزهای بسیار مرطوب (R95pTOT)
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961–1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
  11. طولانی‌ترین دورهٔ خشک (CDD)
    Indicator · IND · d
    Maximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
  12. گرمایش پیش‌بینی‌شده از دوران پیشاصنعتی
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850–1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  13. تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ دمای گرم‌ترین روز
    Indicator · IND · K
    Multi-model median change in TXx relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  14. تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ بارش پرباران‌ترین پنج روز
    Indicator · IND · %
    Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995–2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  15. افزایش نسبی پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ سطح دریا
    Indicator · IND · m
    Median projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995–2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  16. جمعیت پایین‌تر از تراز آیندهٔ سیلاب ساحلی 100 ساله، سهم
    Indicator · IND · %
    Share of today’s residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
  17. Chronic climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
  18. Climate extremes sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
  19. Projected climate change sub-index
    Sub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%
    Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
  20. شاخص مخاطرهٔ فیزیکی اقلیمی
    Domain index · IDX · geometric
    0–10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041–2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
  21. مواجهه با مخاطره و تهدید
    Pillar · PILLAR · 5 indices
    What can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
  22. NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) Composite Risk
    Composite · COMPOSITE · four pillars
    Composite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
اجرا نشدهدر حال انجامانجام شد
FIG 2. 16 indicators, 3 components, real Indicator Standard weights (the bar under each node is its share). Select a node to trace what it feeds and what feeds it; Simulate run plays the computation in order. Schematic of the construction; source: Indicator Standard composite definitions.
02Simulator

Run this index’s own aggregation

Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component’s contribution respond.

FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
3.0
5.0
7.0
25
1
–
در مرورگر شما اجرا می‌شود
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
Simulator: the index’s published aggregation run on numbers you set, with 1,000 draws over weights and aggregation. The slider positions are starting points for the explainer, not NXS-GRX values. Simulated on your own inputs; not a measured result.
03روش

Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty

Treatment
WINSORISE
Outlier rule
|skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
Normalisation
min–max rescaling
Imputation
NONE
Coverage minimum
67% of components
Modelled share cap
20% of weight
Weighting
equal
Aggregation
geometric
Scale
0 to 10
عدم قطعیت
1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
Framework basis
IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
بسیار کم0.0 تا < 2.0
کم2.0 تا < 3.5
متوسط3.5 تا < 5.0
زیاد5.0 تا < 6.5
بسیار زیاد6.5 تا 10.0
04Components

3 components, 16 indicators

Chronic climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
گرمایش سطحی از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialKClass Cberkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change33.3%
تغییر بارش سالانهIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change%Class Cgpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era533.3%
نرخ افزایش نسبی سطح دریاIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendmm/aClass Bpsmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change33.3%

Climate extremes sub-index w 1

Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
گرم‌ترین روز سال (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCelClass Chadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services12.5%
سهم روزهای گرم (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
تغییر در روزهای بسیار گرم (35 °C یا بیشتر)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changed/aClass Ccopernicus-era5, hadex312.5%
مدت دوره‌های گرم (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationd/aClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
پرباران‌ترین روز سال (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
پرباران‌ترین پنج روز سال (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5daymmClass Chadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era512.5%
بارش روزهای بسیار مرطوب (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share%Class Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%
طولانی‌ترین دورهٔ خشک (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysdClass Chadex3, copernicus-era512.5%

Projected climate change sub-index w 1

Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.

نشانگرواحدشواهدمنابعسهم
گرمایش پیش‌بینی‌شده از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp20.0%
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ دمای گرم‌ترین روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeKClass Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ بارش پرباران‌ترین پنج روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change%Class Cipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip620.0%
افزایش نسبی پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ سطح دریاIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_risemClass Cipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool20.0%
جمعیت پایین‌تر از تراز آیندهٔ سیلاب ساحلی 100 ساله، سهمIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share%Class Dipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop20.0%
05حوزه

اقلیم

Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.

Sub-domainشاخص‌ها
Chronic physical change3
Acute climate extremes9
Emissions4
Transition exposure5
Adaptation readiness5
Scenario projections5

Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.

06شاخص‌ها

All 31 climate indicators

FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
CLI · 31
Area is the number of indicator definitions; colour is the pillar the domain feeds (Macroeconomy and Space feed through their indices). Select a block to filter the table. Source: Indicator Standard Nexus Indicator Standard register.
نشانگرحوزهSub-domainجزءواحدسطوحCrosswalks
گرمایش سطحی از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrialCLIChronic physical changehazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRIDFAO_FAOSTAT ET
تغییر بارش سالانهIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_changeCLIChronic physical changehazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
نرخ افزایش نسبی سطح دریاIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trendCLIChronic physical changehazardmm/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITEUNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402
گرم‌ترین روز سال (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txxCLIAcute climate extremeshazardCelCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
سهم روزهای گرم (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90pCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر در روزهای بسیار گرم (35 °C یا بیشتر)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_changeCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
مدت دوره‌های گرم (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_durationCLIAcute climate extremeshazardd/aCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
پرباران‌ترین روز سال (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID
پرباران‌ترین پنج روز سال (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5dayCLIAcute climate extremeshazardmmCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
بارش روزهای بسیار مرطوب (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_shareCLIAcute climate extremeshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
طولانی‌ترین دورهٔ خشک (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_daysCLIAcute climate extremeshazarddCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLIAcute climate extremesexposure%SITE, PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(c)
گرمایش پیش‌بینی‌شده از دوران پیشاصنعتیIND.CLI.projection.projected_warmingCLIScenario projectionshazardKGLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ دمای گرم‌ترین روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_changeCLIScenario projectionshazardKCOUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
تغییر پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ بارش پرباران‌ترین پنج روزIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_changeCLIScenario projectionshazard%COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID
افزایش نسبی پیش‌بینی‌شدهٔ سطح دریاIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_riseCLIScenario projectionshazardmCOUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE
جمعیت پایین‌تر از تراز آیندهٔ سیلاب ساحلی 100 ساله، سهمIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.shareCLIScenario projectionsexposure%COUNTRY, ADM1, CITYWB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS
کل انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای بدون LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_totalCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aCOUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2
انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای سرانهIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capitaCLIEmissionsexposuret/a/{person}COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP
شدت کربن GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdpCLIEmissionsexposurekg/[USD]COUNTRYWB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1
Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissionsCLIEmissionsexposureMt/aPORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(a)(vi)
رانت سوخت‌های فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS
صادرات سوخت، سهم از صادرات کالاIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRYWB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN
یارانه‌های آشکار سوخت فسیلی، سهم از GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdpCLITransition exposureexposure%COUNTRY
Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.shareCLITransition exposureexposure%PORTFOLIOIFRS_S2 29(b)
هدف انتشار کل اقتصاد در NDC 2030IND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambitionCLITransition exposureresponse%COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
ارائهٔ برنامهٔ ملی سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submittedCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{bool}COUNTRYSDG 13.2.1
آمادگی اقتصادی برای سرمایه‌گذاری در سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN economic
آمادگی حکمرانی برای سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN governance
آمادگی اجتماعی برای سازگاریIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readinessCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity{score}COUNTRYND_GAIN social
تأمین مالی بین‌المللی سازگاری دریافتی سرانهIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pcCLIAdaptation readinessadaptive capacity[USD]COUNTRY
07Quote

Climate physical hazard index, world

The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.

NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
–
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
Previous edition
–
Range since 2016
–
Coupled composite
–
Coupling score S
–
Pulse, latest week
–
Outlook, 12 months
–
روش
Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
Draws
1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition

No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.

The line is the point value by edition; the band is the 90% interval; dashed lines are the class bounds at 2, 3.5, 5 and 6.5.
هنوز هیچ جابه‌جایی‌ای نیست. از ویراست دوم به بعد، تغییرات نسبت به ویراست پیشین همراه با نشانگرهایی که آن‌ها را رقم زده‌اند در اینجا فهرست می‌شوند.
08مقادیر

Country values

FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
در حال بارگذاری نقشه
آندوراآنتیگوا و باربودابحرینباربادوسکومورکیپ ورددومینیکامیکرونزی (ایالات فدرال)گرناداکیریباتیسنت کیتس و نویسسنت لوسیالیختن‌اشتاینموناکومالدیوجزایر مارشالمالتموریسنائوروپالائوسنگاپورسان مارینوسائوتومه و پرنسیپسیشلتونگاتووالوواتیکانسنت وینسنت و گرنادین‌هاساموآ
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
Until the first edition is released the map shows UN M49 regions or the Nexus Reports edition; it then shows this index’s classes with each country’s interval on hover. Countries are listed by name, never ordered by value.
Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt
راهنمای مشاهدات
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
10Validity

Crosswalks and validity checks

Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.

Code systemLeaf indicators mapped
FAO_FAOSTAT1
UNDRR_HIPS_20251
WB_WDI1
11Across the Nexus

Platforms, standards and ways to take part

Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.

12استناد

استناد و استفادهٔ دوباره

GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.

See this index in every country profile

Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.