NXS-GRX · GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC · HTE Hazard and threat exposure
Climate physical hazard index
0-10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041-2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
Page GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONICEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Indicator Standard IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_riskValues not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Method card
Aggregation
geometric
equal weights · floor 0.1 where geometric
Uncertainty
1,000 draws
normalisation, weights, aggregation
Structure
3 components
16 leaf indicators
Coverage
67% minimum
modelled share ≤ 20%
16
leaf indicators
3
components
1,000
Monte Carlo draws
8
series read it
01Construction
From indicators to the composite
The physical climate dimension of a place profile; adaptation readiness and realised loss are reported beside it as separate dimensions.
computation
How Climate physical hazard is computedGraph
01Indicators
02Sub-indices
03Domain index
04Pillar
05Composite
100%
List
- Surface warming since pre-industrialIndicator · IND · KDifference between the latest 20-year mean near-surface air temperature over the area and the 1850-1900 mean, from observational datasets; where national records start later, the offset to 1850-1900 is bridged with the global observational estimate.
- Change in annual precipitationIndicator · IND · %Absolute percentage difference between mean annual precipitation of the latest 30 years and the 1961-1990 mean; the signed value is carried alongside for direction.
- Relative sea-level rise rateIndicator · IND · mm/aLinear trend of relative sea level at the coast over the latest 30 years, combining tide-gauge and satellite-altimetry records with vertical land motion.
- Hottest day of the year (TXx)Indicator · IND · CelHighest daily maximum near-surface temperature of the year (ETCCDI-style TXx); the 30-year mean and the latest year are both reported.
- Share of warm days (TX90p)Indicator · IND · %Percentage of days in the year whose maximum temperature exceeds the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961-1990 (ETCCDI-style TX90p); 10 % is the baseline expectation.
- Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)Indicator · IND · d/aChange in the mean annual number of days with maximum temperature of 35 °C or more between the latest 30 years and 1961-1990 (ET-SCI-style TXge35).
- Warm spell duration (WSDI)Indicator · IND · d/aAnnual count of days in spells of at least six consecutive days with maximum temperature above the calendar-day 90th percentile of 1961-1990 (ETCCDI-style WSDI).
- Wettest day of the year (Rx1day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum one-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx1day); the 30-year mean and trend are reported.
- Wettest five days of the year (Rx5day)Indicator · IND · mmMaximum consecutive five-day precipitation total of the year (ETCCDI-style Rx5day).
- Precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT)Indicator · IND · %Share of annual precipitation falling on days wetter than the 95th percentile of wet days in 1961-1990 (ETCCDI-style R95pTOT relative to the annual total).
- Longest dry spell (CDD)Indicator · IND · dMaximum number of consecutive days in the year with precipitation below 1 mm (ETCCDI-style CDD).
- Projected warming since pre-industrialIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in mean near-surface temperature relative to 1850-1900 for the area; scenario (SSP-RCP), horizon (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2081-2100) and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projected change in hottest-day temperatureIndicator · IND · KMulti-model median change in TXx relative to 1995-2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projected change in wettest five-day precipitationIndicator · IND · %Multi-model median percentage change in Rx5day relative to 1995-2014; scenario, horizon and ensemble statistic are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Projected relative sea-level riseIndicator · IND · mMedian projected relative sea-level change at the coast relative to 1995-2014, including vertical land motion; scenario, horizon and likely-range bounds are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIndicator · IND · %Share of today's residents living below the 100-year extreme still-water level raised by projected relative sea-level rise; scenario and horizon are observation dimensions, values flagged S.
- Chronic climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
- Climate extremes sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
- Projected climate change sub-indexSub-index · SUB · w 1 · 33.3%Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
- Climate physical hazard indexDomain index · IDX · geometric0-10 index of physical climate hazard combining chronic change, observed extremes and projected change (projection sub-index taken at SSP2-4.5, 2041-2060 by default, with other scenarios as alternative runs).
- Hazard and threat exposurePillar · PILLAR · 5 indicesWhat can strike, how often, how hard and who and what stands in its way?
- NXS-GRX Composite RiskComposite · COMPOSITE · four pillarsComposite = (HTE × VUL × MSF × LCC)^(1/4), each pillar on 0–10 floored at 0.1; pillar = expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices
Not runIn progressDone
02Simulator
Run this index's own aggregation
Set each component, change the aggregation or the weight uncertainty, and watch the interval, the class probability and each component's contribution respond.
FIG 3 · Simulator: aggregate climate physical hazard on your numbers
Components (0 to 10)
–
runs in your browser
Contribution of each component (leave one out)
03Method
Treatment, normalisation, weighting, aggregation, uncertainty
- Treatment
- WINSORISE
- Outlier rule
- |skew| > 2, kurtosis > 3.5
- Normalisation
- MIN_MAX
- Imputation
- NONE
- Coverage minimum
- 67% of components
- Modelled share cap
- 20% of weight
- Weighting
- equal
- Aggregation
- geometric
- Scale
- 0 to 10
- Uncertainty
- 1,000 Monte Carlo runs over normalisation, weights, aggregation
- Framework basis
- IPCC AR6 WGII risk framing; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN vulnerability (exposure component, structure only)
Very low0.0 to < 2.0
Low2.0 to < 3.5
Medium3.5 to < 5.0
High5.0 to < 6.5
Very high6.5 to 10.0
04Components
3 components, 16 indicators
Chronic climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of observed warming since pre-industrial, change in annual precipitation and relative sea-level rise rate.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surface warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | K | Class C | berkeley-earth, copernicus-era5, noaa-globaltemp, fao-faostat-temperature-change | 33.3% |
| Change in annual precipitationIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | % | Class C | gpcc, cru-ts, copernicus-era5 | 33.3% |
| Relative sea-level rise rateIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | mm/a | Class B | psmsl, copernicus-sea-level, nasa-sea-level-change | 33.3% |
Climate extremes sub-index w 1
Composite of ETCCDI-style extremes indices: TXx, TX90p, change in very hot days, WSDI, Rx1day, Rx5day, R95pTOT and CDD.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hottest day of the year (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | Cel | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5, national-met-services | 12.5% |
| Share of warm days (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
| Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | d/a | Class C | copernicus-era5, hadex3 | 12.5% |
| Warm spell duration (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | d/a | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
| Wettest day of the year (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
| Wettest five days of the year (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | mm | Class C | hadex3, gpcc-full-data-daily, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
| Precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | % | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
| Longest dry spell (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | d | Class C | hadex3, copernicus-era5 | 12.5% |
Projected climate change sub-index w 1
Composite of projected warming, projected change in TXx and Rx5day, projected sea-level rise and population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, computed separately for each scenario and horizon; never averaged across scenarios.
| Indicator | Unit | Evidence | Sources | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Projected warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6, wb-cckp | 20.0% |
| Projected change in hottest-day temperatureIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | K | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
| Projected change in wettest five-day precipitationIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | % | Class C | ipcc-ar6-interactive-atlas, cmip6 | 20.0% |
| Projected relative sea-level riseIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | m | Class C | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, nasa-sea-level-projection-tool | 20.0% |
| Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | % | Class D | ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections, deltares-gtsr, jrc-ghsl-ghs-pop | 20.0% |
05Domain
Climate
Physical climate hazards and trends, emissions and transition exposure, and adaptation readiness.
| Sub-domain | Indicators |
|---|---|
| Chronic physical change | 3 |
| Acute climate extremes | 9 |
| Emissions | 4 |
| Transition exposure | 5 |
| Adaptation readiness | 5 |
| Scenario projections | 5 |
Anchor frameworks (pillar structure and definitions only): IPCC AR6; INFORM Climate Change; ND-GAIN; IMF Climate Change Indicators Dashboard; IFRS S2; NGFS Phase V.
06Indicators
All 31 climate indicators
FIG 4 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Surface warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.physical_chronic.warming_since_preindustrial | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | FAO_FAOSTAT ET |
| Change in annual precipitationIND.CLI.physical_chronic.precipitation_change | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Relative sea-level rise rateIND.CLI.physical_chronic.relative_sea_level_trend | CLI | Chronic physical change | hazard | mm/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0402 |
| Hottest day of the year (TXx)IND.CLI.physical_acute.txx | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | Cel | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Share of warm days (TX90p)IND.CLI.physical_acute.tx90p | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Warm spell duration (WSDI)IND.CLI.physical_acute.warm_spell_duration | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Wettest day of the year (Rx1day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx1day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Wettest five days of the year (Rx5day)IND.CLI.physical_acute.rx5day | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | mm | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Precipitation from very wet days (R95pTOT)IND.CLI.physical_acute.very_wet_day_share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Longest dry spell (CDD)IND.CLI.physical_acute.consecutive_dry_days | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
| Projected warming since pre-industrialIND.CLI.projection.projected_warming | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | GLOBAL, REGION, COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Projected change in hottest-day temperatureIND.CLI.projection.projected_txx_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | K | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Projected change in wettest five-day precipitationIND.CLI.projection.projected_rx5day_change | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Projected relative sea-level riseIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
| Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
| Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCFIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_total | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5 SDG 13.2.2 |
| Greenhouse gas emissions per capitaIND.CLI.emissions.ghg_per_capita | CLI | Emissions | exposure | t/a/{person} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.ALL.PC.CE.AR5 EPI GHP |
| Carbon intensity of GDPIND.CLI.emissions.carbon_intensity_gdp | CLI | Emissions | exposure | kg/[USD] | COUNTRY | WB_WDI EN.GHG.CO2.RT.GDP.KD SDG 9.4.1 |
| Financed emissions of a portfolioIND.CLI.emissions.financed_emissions | CLI | Emissions | exposure | Mt/a | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(a)(vi) |
| Fossil-fuel rents, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_rents.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI NY.GDP.PETR.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.NGAS.RT.ZS WB_WDI NY.GDP.COAL.RT.ZS |
| Fuel exports, share of merchandise exportsIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_exports.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.FUEL.ZS.UN |
| Explicit fossil-fuel subsidies, share of GDPIND.CLI.transition.fossil_fuel_subsidies.gdp | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related transition risks, shareIND.CLI.transition.transition_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Transition exposure | exposure | % | PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(b) |
| NDC 2030 economy-wide emissions targetIND.CLI.transition.ndc_target_ambition | CLI | Transition exposure | response | % | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
| National adaptation plan submittedIND.CLI.adaptation.nap_submitted | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {bool} | COUNTRY | SDG 13.2.1 |
| Economic readiness for adaptation investmentIND.CLI.adaptation.economic_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN economic |
| Governance readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.governance_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN governance |
| Social readiness for adaptationIND.CLI.adaptation.social_readiness | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | ND_GAIN social |
| International adaptation finance received per capitaIND.CLI.adaptation.adaptation_finance_received.pc | CLI | Adaptation readiness | adaptive capacity | [USD] | COUNTRY |
07Quote
Climate physical hazard index, world
The world reading of this index, every country as a tile and the largest movements since the previous edition.
NXS-GRX · CLI · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Climate physical hazard index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
- Previous edition
- —
- Range since 2016
- —
- Coupled composite
- —
- Coupling score S
- —
- Pulse, latest week
- —
- Outlook, 12 months
- —
- Method
- Indicator Standard 1.0 · NXS-GRX 2026
- Draws
- 1,000
Climate physical hazard index, world, by edition
No released values yet. The first edition draws the history here with its interval band and class bounds.
Africa54
Americas35
Asia48
Europe44
No movements yet. Changes since the previous edition are listed here from the second edition on, with the indicators that drove them.
08Values
Country values
FIG 5 · Climate physical hazard index: countries (values when released)
Loading the map
Equal Earth · Natural Earth 1:110mValues when released
- Tiles
/api/v1/public/grix/risk-products/tiles/cli/{z}/{x}/{y}.mvt- Observation key
nis:IDX.CLI.physical_chronic.climate_physical_risk:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
09Series
Series that read this index
GLBGlobal SystemsThe state of interdependent global risk: the twenty domain indices aggregated to the world, the five core systems (water, energy, food, health, biodiversity) and their couplings, the global tail register and the gap between perceived and measured risk.GS-07Global ClimateChronic and acute physical climate hazard, transition exposure, adaptation gaps and scenario pathways to 2030, 2050 and 2100.GS-10Global CitiesUrban exposure, heat, flooding, informal settlement, service dependency and the economic weight of cities at risk.GS-12Global Earth observationWhat Earth observation can and cannot see of risk: coverage, revisit, latency and the observing systems NXS-GRX depends on.SR-01Global PolycrisisHow crises become entangled: common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, economy, health and security.SR-09Planetary boundariesEarth-system boundaries and tipping elements as slow-onset, high-impact risk.XT-18Climate intervention technologiesCarbon removal and proposed climate interventions: physical, governance and termination risks, read from published assessments only.TH-04Disaster Risk Intelligence (DRI)Signals, observations, event streams, geospatial layers and scenario packs turned into structured risk intelligence for preparedness and planning.
10Validity
Crosswalks and validity checks
Crosswalks map leaf indicators to source code lists; established indices are used for validity checks, never re-weighted as inputs.
| Code system | Leaf indicators mapped |
|---|---|
FAO_FAOSTAT | 1 |
UNDRR_HIPS_2025 | 1 |
WB_WDI | 1 |
11Across the Nexus
Platforms, standards and ways to take part
Field and service platforms of GCRI, GRF and GRA, the Nexus Risk Standards for this domain, learning, working groups and open calls. Every link is a live page.
12Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Climate physical hazard index (GRX-IDX-CLI-PHYSICALCHRONIC), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/indices/climate-physical-risk/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000112.
See this index in every country profile
Each profile shows this index with its interval and class once released.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.