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The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · Methods · model registry 1.0.0

Every risk method, standardized

670 methods across hazard science, exposure, vulnerability, loss, catastrophe, financial, sovereign, systemic, climate, health, cyber and assurance, each with a stable ID, an honest implementation state and the standards that govern it.

Method fabricsMethodology
Page GRX-MTHEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
670
methods
23
fabrics
169
kernel-bound
48
connected or reference
01Fabrics

23 method fabrics

Every quantitative method the index and its platform may use is registered once, in one fabric, with a stable capability ID; a title is display text only.

FabricCapabilitiesKernel-boundPlanesStandards
Universal mathematics and statistics3826julia, typescript
NRS-C2NRS-C9NRS-M1
Hazard science377julia, python
NRS-C3NRS-M2NRS-X2
Exposure and asset intelligence184typescript, python, sql
NRS-C3NRS-M3NRS-N6
Vulnerability, fragility and resilience198julia, python
NRS-C3NRS-C14NRS-M4
Consequence and loss186julia, python, r
NRS-C15NRS-M5
Catastrophe risk2313julia, python, r
NRS-F3NRS-F7NRS-F8NRS-M6
Networks, dependency and systemic risk2110julia, python
NRS-C6NRS-M7NRS-N7
Financial risk5713julia, python, r
NRS-F1NRS-F2NRS-F4NRS-M8
Insurance and reinsurance3814r, julia
NRS-F3NRS-F8NRS-M9
Markets, trade and supply chains307julia, python
NRS-M10NRS-P10NRS-X4
Sovereign, macroeconomic and development risk285julia, python, r
NRS-D1NRS-F5NRS-F6NRS-M11
Policy, regulation and governance171python, julia
NRS-M12NRS-P1NRS-P2NRS-P5NRS-P9
Water risk267julia, python
NRS-M13NRS-N1
Food, agriculture and fisheries252python, julia
NRS-M14NRS-N3
Energy risk267julia, python
NRS-M15NRS-N2NRS-T12
Health and epidemiology259julia, python, r
NRS-M16NRS-N4
Climate, nature and biodiversity243python, julia
NRS-M17NRS-N5NRS-X1
Critical infrastructure and industrial risk276julia, python
NRS-M18NRS-N6NRS-X10
Cyber, AI and frontier technology566python, rust, julia
NRS-M19NRS-T0NRS-T1NRS-X6
Geopolitics, conflict and human security215python, julia
NRS-D6NRS-M20NRS-P8
Projects, programmes and infrastructure investment272julia, python
NRS-D1NRS-E8NRS-F9NRS-M21
Risk data240typescript, python, rust, sql
NRS-A8NRS-C4NRS-M22
Scientific assurance4516julia, python, r, rust
NRS-A9NRS-C8NRS-C9NRS-I3NRS-M23
02State

What is implemented

169 capabilities are bound to hand-written scientific kernels with golden-value tests in Python, Julia or R. Every capability is release-held, with a claim ceiling of integrated.

model registry 1.0.0 · 670 capabilities
Connected9
Reference implementation39
Adapter required327
Specialist model required159
Data required136
Kernel bindings by plane
python161
julia4
r4
Connected
An existing governed engine path is available; specialist physics still needs validation for the context of use.
Reference implementation
Transparent reference mathematics for diagnostics and parity, not institutional-grade calibration.
Adapter required
Registered; an execution adapter is still to be built. Requests fail closed.
Specialist model required
Needs a specialist domain model. Requests fail closed rather than fabricate an output.
Data required
Needs governed data that is not yet available. Requests fail closed.
03Contract

What every method must carry

The same contract applies to an NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk) index, a custom index in Index Studio and a model run in Model Lab.

Evidence
sealed RiskDataCut for data-grounded execution; source release and exact-record lineage; rights/purpose decision; chronotope; model/method version; uncertainty and applicability evidence
Uncertainty
aleatory where applicable, epistemic, parameter, model-form, data, scenario
Verification and validation
verification, calibration or justification, validation or benchmark, applicability, reproducibility
Outputs
uncertainty-packet, evidence-envelope, vvuq-receipt
Refusals
NO_DATA_IS_NOT_ZERO NO_UNGROUNDED_MONETARY_TRUTH NO_FAKE_SPATIAL_MATERIALIZATION NO_CAUSAL_CLAIM_WITHOUT_IDENTIFICATION NO_CALIBRATION_CLAIM_WITHOUT_EVIDENCE NO_AUTHORITY_ESCALATION
04Honesty

What registration does not mean

  • Capability registration is not model execution, calibration, observation, validation or assurance.
  • CONNECTED means an existing governed engine path is available; specialist domain physics still requires context-of-use validation.
  • IMPLEMENTED_REFERENCE means transparent reference mathematics exists for diagnostics/parity, not institutional-grade calibration.
  • SPECIALIST_MODEL_REQUIRED and DATA_REQUIRED fail closed rather than fabricate outputs.
  • Cryptographic integrity proves content/provenance relationships, not scientific truth.

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID, a hand-derived golden test and their evidence obligations before any page uses them.

Contribute

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.