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The Global Risks Index
NXS-GRX · Methods · 21 capabilities

Geopolitics, conflict and human security

Methods for geopolitical, human-security on the python and julia compute planes.

CapabilitiesAll methods
Page GRX-MTH-GCHSEdition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
21
capabilities
5
kernel-bound
4
method families
3
standards
01Capabilities

21 capabilities

5 of 21 have a bound kernel or engine. States are shown as the registry records them; a request fails closed wherever an adapter, specialist model or governed data is still missing.

MethodCapability IDStateRuns on
Interstate Conflict Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.interstate.conflict.risk.v1Adapter required—
Civil Conflict Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.civil.conflict.risk.v1Adapter requiredpython · conflict.intensity_classification
Political Violence Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.political.violence.risk.v1Adapter requiredpython · conflict.event_rate_anomaly
Displacement Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.displacement.risk.v1Adapter required—
Humanitarian Access Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.humanitarian.access.risk.v1Adapter required—
Geopolitical Sanctions Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.geopolitical.sanctions.risk.v1Adapter required—
Geoeconomic Fragmentationrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.geoeconomic.fragmentation.v1Adapter required—
Political Instabilityrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.political.instability.v1Adapter required—
Governance Stressrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.governance.stress.v1Adapter required—
Transboundary Resource Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.transboundary.resource.risk.v1Adapter required—
Migration Pressurerisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.migration.pressure.v1Adapter required—
Food Conflict Nexusrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.food.conflict.nexus.v1Adapter required—
Climate Conflict Supportrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.climate.conflict.support.v1Adapter required—
Energy Geopoliticsrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.energy.geopolitics.v1Adapter required—
Critical Mineral Geopoliticsrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.critical.mineral.geopolitics.v1Adapter required—
Maritime Chokepointrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.maritime.chokepoint.v1Adapter required—
Geopolitical Supply Chainrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.geopolitical.supply.chain.v1Adapter required—
Information Environment Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.information.environment.risk.v1Adapter required—
INFORM Method Riskrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.inform.method.risk.v1Adapter requiredpython · index.inform_method_risk
Composite Risk Indexrisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.composite.risk.index.v1Adapter requiredpython · index.inform_method_composite
Conflict Exposurerisk.capability.geopolitical-conflict-human-security.conflict.exposure.v1Adapter requiredpython · conflict.exposure_h3
02Scope

Methods, data and supports

Method families
scenario ensemble, network science, time series, bayesian inference
Domains
geopolitical, human-security
Compute planes
python, julia
Source classes
institutional, event, trade, humanitarian, resource
Spatial supports
country, region, route
Temporal supports
event, daily, scenario
Adapter required21
03Standards

Standards that govern this fabric

NRS-D6NRS-M20NRS-P8

Propose a method

New methods are registered with a stable ID and a hand-derived golden test.

Contribute

Status

The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.

What NXS-GRX is not

NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.

Institutions and sources

The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.

Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.

Avis en français

La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.