NXS-GRX · SR-14 · Strategic systems series
Global catastrophic and tail risk
Low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks: severe space weather, super-eruptions, engineered and natural pandemics, nuclear and frontier-technology failure modes, compound collapses.
Page GRX-SER-SR-14Edition Baseline Edition 2026Evidence close 2026-09-30Subject NXS-GRX proposedNexus Reports SR-14 (planned)Values not yet publishedSnapshot 31a753f76
FIG 1 · Series at a glance
Domain indices
1
Space-weather exposure
Indicators
156
5 index domains
Hazard families
56
Space and near-Earth · Solid Earth · Health and biosecurity
Methods
100
Catastrophe risk · Networks, dependency and systemic risk
1
domain indices
156
indicators in scope
6
hazard domains
4
client groups
01Scope
Scope and questions
The subject of this index is proposed by NXS-GRX (canonical data, provenance and risk); the Nexus Reports edition with the same code sets its own subject at commissioning, and any difference is recorded as a crosswalk.
- Which tail risks deserve standing monitoring?
- How do tail events couple into systemic collapse?
- Which countries carry the largest share of tail exposure?
02Construction
Domain indices to the series index
The series index is the expert-weighted geometric mean of its domain indices, with the intervals and class rule of the methodology.
computation
How the Global catastrophic and tail risk index is builtGraph
01Domain indices
02Series index
03Readings
100%
List
- Space-weather exposureDomain index · IDX · SPC0-10 index of space-weather exposure as the product of the space-weather hazard and space-service dependence sub-indices; mostly modelled and expert inputs, so its grade is capped.
- Global catastrophic and tail risk indexSeries index · SERIES · SR-14Low-probability, high-impact and global catastrophic risks: severe space weather, super-eruptions, engineered and natural pandemics, nuclear and frontier-technology failure modes, compound collapses.
- Country readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 195 profilesPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Regional readingsOutput · OUTPUT · 5 regionsPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
- Global readingOutput · OUTPUT · population or exposure weightedPublished with intervals and classes when the edition is released.
Not runIn progressDone
03Indices
Domain indices in this series
NXS-GRX · SR-14 · 195 profiles · 0–10 scale
Global catastrophic and tail risk index, world
—
Values publish with the edition; the interval, class and change appear here.
| Index | Value | Change | Change % | 90% interval | Class · probability | Trend | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Space-weather exposureNXS-GRX · SPC | — | — | — | — | — |
Domains read: Space environment, Hazard and exposure, Health, Technology and frontier, Conflict and security.
04Indicators
156 indicators in scope
Every indicator whose primary or secondary domain is in scope, with unit, levels and crosswalks to source code lists.
FIG 3 · Indicators in scope, by domain and sub-domain
| Indicator | Domain | Sub-domain | Component | Unit | Levels | Crosswalks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expected annual fiscal cost of disasters, share of GDPIND.FIS.contingent.disaster_fiscal_cost.gdp | FIS | Contingent liabilities | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Natural-catastrophe protection gapIND.FIN.nbfi.nat_cat_protection_gap | FIN | Non-bank financial intermediation | vulnerability | % | REGION, COUNTRY | |
| Bank lending exposed to high physical climate riskIND.FIN.climate_finance.physical_risk_lending | FIN | Climate-related financial exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Net import reliance for critical mineralsIND.ECO.concentration.critical_minerals_import_reliance | ECO | Export and import concentration | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Seaborne trade exposed to maritime chokepointsIND.ECO.supply_chain.chokepoint_exposure | ECO | Supply-chain exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Change in very hot days (35 °C or more)IND.CLI.physical_acute.hot_days_change | CLI | Acute climate extremes | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Assets vulnerable to climate-related physical risks, shareIND.CLI.physical_acute.physical_risk_vulnerable_assets.share | CLI | Acute climate extremes | exposure | % | SITE, PORTFOLIO | IFRS_S2 29(c) |
| Projected relative sea-level riseIND.CLI.projection.projected_sea_level_rise | CLI | Scenario projections | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
| Population below the future 100-year coastal flood level, shareIND.CLI.projection.slr_coastal_population_exposed.share | CLI | Scenario projections | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
| Population exposed to two or more major hazards, shareIND.HAZ.multi.multi_hazard_exposure.share | HAZ | Multi-hazard | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | INFORM HA.NAT |
| Multi-hazard average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.multi.aal.gdp | HAZ | Multi-hazard | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Multi-hazard average annual loss, share of produced capital stockIND.HAZ.multi.aal.capital_stock | HAZ | Multi-hazard | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Probable maximum loss at 250-year return period, share of GDPIND.HAZ.multi.pml_rp250.gdp | HAZ | Multi-hazard | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| Peak ground acceleration at 475-year return periodIND.HAZ.seismic.pga_rp475 | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | hazard | [g] | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0101 INFORM HA.NAT.EQ |
| People exposed to strong earthquake shaking, annual averageIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_population_exposed | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | exposure | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | INFORM EX_EQ_MMI8 |
| People exposed to strong earthquake shaking, share of populationIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Earthquake average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.seismic.eq_aal.gdp | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Population within 30 km of a Holocene volcanoIND.HAZ.seismic.volcano_population_30km | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | exposure | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0203 |
| Probability of damaging volcanic ash fall in 100 yearsIND.HAZ.seismic.ash_fall_probability | HAZ | Seismic and volcanic | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0202 EMDAT nat-geo-vol-ash |
| Extreme still-water sea level at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.coastal.extreme_sea_level_rp100 | HAZ | Coastal and sea level | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0703 EMDAT nat-met-sto-sur |
| Population in the 100-year coastal floodplain, shareIND.HAZ.coastal.coastal_flood_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | INFORM EX_CFL UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0601 |
| Population below 5 m elevation, shareIND.HAZ.coastal.low_elevation_population.share | HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.POP.EL5M.ZS |
| Tsunami maximum inundation height at 500-year return periodIND.HAZ.coastal.tsunami_inundation_rp500 | HAZ | Coastal and sea level | hazard | m | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0705 INFORM HA.NAT.TS |
| Population exposed to tsunami, shareIND.HAZ.coastal.tsunami_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Coastal and sea level | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | INFORM EX_TS EMDAT nat-geo-ear-tsu |
| Fluvial flood depth at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.flood.river_flood_depth_rp100 | HAZ | Flood | hazard | m | ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0604 EMDAT nat-hyd-flo-riv |
| Pluvial and flash flood depth at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.flood.pluvial_flood_depth_rp100 | HAZ | Flood | hazard | m | ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0603 UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0606 EMDAT nat-hyd-flo-fla |
| People exposed to river flooding, annual averageIND.HAZ.flood.flood_population_exposed | HAZ | Flood | exposure | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY | INFORM EX_FL INFORM HA.NAT.FL |
| People exposed to river flooding, share of populationIND.HAZ.flood.flood_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Flood | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY | |
| Flood protection design standardIND.HAZ.flood.flood_protection_standard | HAZ | Flood | coping capacity | a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, SITE | |
| River flood average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.flood.flood_aal.gdp | HAZ | Flood | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, PORTFOLIO | |
| Tropical cyclone wind speed at 100-year return periodIND.HAZ.storm.tc_wind_rp100 | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | hazard | m/s | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0309 INFORM HA.NAT.TC |
| Annual probability of category 1 or stronger cyclone windIND.HAZ.storm.tc_cat1_probability | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID, SITE | |
| People exposed to category 1 cyclone wind, annual averageIND.HAZ.storm.tc_population_exposed | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | exposure | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | INFORM EX_TC_SS1 |
| People exposed to category 1 cyclone wind, share of populationIND.HAZ.storm.tc_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Tropical cyclone average annual loss, share of GDPIND.HAZ.storm.tc_aal.gdp | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| Large-hail days per yearIND.HAZ.storm.large_hail_days | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID, SITE | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0404 EMDAT nat-met-sto-hai |
| Days with severe-thunderstorm environmentsIND.HAZ.storm.severe_convective_days | HAZ | Tropical and severe storms | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0103 EMDAT nat-met-sto-sev |
| Frequency of severe meteorological droughtIND.HAZ.drought.spei_drought_frequency | HAZ | Drought | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0401 INFORM HA.NAT.DR |
| Frequency of agricultural drought stressIND.HAZ.drought.agricultural_stress_frequency | HAZ | Drought | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | INFORM ASI |
| People affected by drought, annual average shareIND.HAZ.drought.drought_affected.share | HAZ | Drought | impact | % | COUNTRY | INFORM AFF_DR EMDAT nat-cli-dro-dro |
| Days of dangerous humid heat per yearIND.HAZ.heat.dangerous_heat_days | HAZ | Extreme heat | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 MH0501 |
| Heatwave exposure events per personIND.HAZ.heat.heatwave_person_days | HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Population exposed to extreme heat, shareIND.HAZ.heat.heat_population_exposed.share | HAZ | Extreme heat | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Extreme fire-weather days per yearIND.HAZ.wildfire.extreme_fire_weather_days | HAZ | Wildfire | hazard | d/a | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Annual burned area, share of land areaIND.HAZ.wildfire.burned_area.share | HAZ | Wildfire | hazard | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 EN0205 EMDAT nat-cli-wil-wil |
| Population in the wildland-urban interface, shareIND.HAZ.wildfire.wui_population.share | HAZ | Wildfire | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Population in high landslide susceptibility zones, shareIND.HAZ.landslide.landslide_susceptible_population.share | HAZ | Landslide | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 GH0300 |
| Fatal landslide deaths per 100,000, annual averageIND.HAZ.landslide.fatal_landslide_rate | HAZ | Landslide | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | EMDAT nat-hyd-mmw-lan |
| Population near major-hazard industrial sites, shareIND.HAZ.technological.major_hazard_site_population.share | HAZ | Technological | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0304 UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0309 |
| Population within 30 km of an operating nuclear reactorIND.HAZ.technological.nuclear_population_30km | HAZ | Technological | exposure | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 TL0208 |
| Industrial accident deaths per 100,000, annual averageIND.HAZ.technological.industrial_accident_deaths | HAZ | Technological | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | EMDAT tec-ind-ind-ind |
| Built-up surface areaIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_area | HAZ | Exposure | context | km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Produced capital stockIND.HAZ.exposure.capital_stock | HAZ | Exposure | context | [USD] | COUNTRY, ADM1, PORTFOLIO | |
| Built-up area in high-hazard zonesIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed | HAZ | Exposure | exposure | km2 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Built-up area in high-hazard zones, shareIND.HAZ.exposure.built_up_exposed.share | HAZ | Exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY | |
| GDP generated in high-hazard zones, shareIND.HAZ.exposure.gdp_exposed.share | HAZ | Exposure | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | |
| Disaster deaths and missing persons per 100,000IND.HAZ.loss.deaths_missing_rate | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI A-1 SDG 1.5.1 |
| People directly affected by disasters per 100,000IND.HAZ.loss.directly_affected_rate | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI B-1 SDG 1.5.1 |
| Direct economic loss from disasters, share of GDPIND.HAZ.loss.direct_economic_loss.gdp | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-1 SDG 1.5.2 |
| Recorded disaster deaths per 100,000, 30-year averageIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_deaths | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | EMDAT Total Deaths |
| Recorded people affected by disasters per 100,000, 30-year averageIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_affected | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | EMDAT Total Affected |
| Recorded disaster damage, share of GDP, 30-year averageIND.HAZ.loss.recorded_disaster_damage.gdp | HAZ | Losses and impacts | impact | % | COUNTRY | EMDAT Total Damage, Adjusted ('000 US$) |
| PM2.5 exposure, population-weighted meanIND.ENV.air.pm25_exposure | ENV | Air quality | hazard | ug/m3 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3 SDG 11.6.2 EPI PMD |
| Population exposed above the WHO PM2.5 guideline, shareIND.ENV.air.pm25_guideline_exceedance.share | ENV | Air quality | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI EN.ATM.PM25.MC.ZS |
| Seasonal peak ozone exposureIND.ENV.air.ozone_exposure | ENV | Air quality | hazard | [ppb] | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY, GRID | |
| Population using safely managed drinking waterIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_drinking_water.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | SDG 6.1.1 WB_WDI SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS EPI UWD |
| Population using at least basic drinking waterIND.WAT.access.basic_drinking_water.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.H2O.BASW.ZS |
| Population using safely managed sanitationIND.WAT.access.safely_managed_sanitation.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI SH.STA.SMSS.ZS SDG 6.2.1 EPI USD |
| Population with basic hand-washing facilitiesIND.WAT.access.basic_handwashing.share | WAT | Drinking water and sanitation | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.HYGN.ZS SDG 6.2.1 |
| Dependency ratio on external renewable waterIND.WAT.dependence.external_water_dependency | WAT | Transboundary dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | |
| Severe geomagnetic storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.severe_geomagnetic_storm_days | SPC | Space weather | hazard | d/a | GLOBAL | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0101 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-geo |
| Geoelectric field amplitude at 100-year return periodIND.SPC.weather.geoelectric_field_rp100 | SPC | Space weather | hazard | V/km | COUNTRY, ADM1, GRID | |
| Strong solar radiation storm days per yearIND.SPC.weather.radiation_storm_days | SPC | Space weather | hazard | d/a | GLOBAL | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0104 EMDAT nat-ext-spa-ene |
| GDP in GNSS-dependent activities, shareIND.SPC.dependence.gnss_dependent_gdp.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, PORTFOLIO | UNDRR_HIPS_2025 ET0102 |
| Critical services relying on satellites without backup, shareIND.SPC.dependence.satellite_service_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| High-voltage grid in high geoelectric hazard zones, shareIND.SPC.dependence.grid_gic_exposure.share | SPC | Space-service dependence | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Under-five mortality rateIND.HLT.burden.under5_mortality | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.MORT SDG 3.2.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000007 |
| Neonatal mortality rateIND.HLT.burden.neonatal_mortality | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NMRT SDG 3.2.2 |
| Maternal mortality ratioIND.HLT.burden.maternal_mortality | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | /10*5 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.MMRT SDG 3.1.1 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000026 |
| Life expectancy at birthIND.HLT.burden.life_expectancy | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | a | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.DYN.LE00.IN WHO_GHO WHOSIS_000001 |
| Premature mortality from major non-communicable diseasesIND.HLT.burden.ncd_premature_mortality | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.DYN.NCOM.ZS SDG 3.4.1 WHO_GHO NCDMORT3070 |
| Tuberculosis incidenceIND.HLT.burden.tb_incidence | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.TBS.INCD SDG 3.3.2 WHO_GHO MDG_0000000020 |
| Malaria incidenceIND.HLT.burden.malaria_incidence | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MLR.INCD.P3 SDG 3.3.3 WHO_GHO SDGMALARIA |
| HIV incidenceIND.HLT.burden.hiv_incidence | HLT | Disease burden and mortality | hazard | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.TL.P3 SDG 3.3.1 WHO_GHO SDGHIV WB_WDI SH.HIV.INCD.ZS |
| Medical doctors per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.physician_density | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.PHYS.ZS WHO_GHO HWF_0001 SDG 3.c.1 |
| Nurses and midwives per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.nurse_midwife_density | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.NUMW.P3 WHO_GHO HWF_0006 SDG 3.c.1 |
| Hospital beds per 1,000 populationIND.HLT.system.hospital_beds | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | /10*3 | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.MED.BEDS.ZS WHO_GHO WHS6_102 |
| UHC service coverage indexIND.HLT.system.uhc_service_coverage | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.1 WHO_GHO UHC_INDEX_REPORTED WB_WDI SH.UHC.SRVS.CV.XD |
| Population with catastrophic out-of-pocket health spendingIND.HLT.system.catastrophic_oop | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | SDG 3.8.2 WB_WDI SH.UHC.OOPC.10.ZS |
| Out-of-pocket spending, share of current health expenditureIND.HLT.system.oop_share | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.OOPC.CH.ZS WHO_GHO GHED_OOPSCHE_SHA2011 |
| Current health expenditure, share of GDPIND.HLT.system.health_expenditure.gdp | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS |
| DTP3 immunisation coverageIND.HLT.system.dtp3_coverage | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO WHS4_100 WB_WDI SH.IMM.IDPT SDG 3.b.1 |
| Second-dose measles immunisation coverageIND.HLT.system.mcv2_coverage | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO MCV2 WB_WDI SH.IMM.MEA2 SDG 3.b.1 |
| Births attended by skilled health personnelIND.HLT.system.skilled_birth_attendance | HLT | Health system capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.BRTC.ZS SDG 3.1.2 |
| Travel time to the nearest health facilityIND.HLT.system.health_facility_travel_time | HLT | Health system capacity | vulnerability | min | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| IHR core capacity score (SPAR)IND.HLT.security.spar_capacity | HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SDG 3.d.1 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2021 WHO_GHO SDGIHR2018 |
| IHR laboratory capacity (SPAR C4)IND.HLT.security.spar_laboratory | HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SPAR C4 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C04 JEE D1 |
| IHR surveillance capacity (SPAR C5)IND.HLT.security.spar_surveillance | HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SPAR C5 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C05 JEE D2 |
| IHR health emergency management capacity (SPAR C7)IND.HLT.security.spar_emergency_management | HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SPAR C7 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C07 JEE R1 |
| IHR risk communication capacity (SPAR C10)IND.HLT.security.spar_risk_communication | HLT | Health security (IHR) | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | SPAR C10 WHO_GHO IHRSPAR2_C10 JEE R5 |
| Epidemic event frequencyIND.HLT.epidemic.outbreak_event_frequency | HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | |
| Reported cholera cases, per 100,000 populationIND.HLT.epidemic.cholera_cases.p100k | HLT | Epidemic and outbreak | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO CHOLERA_0000000001 |
| Bloodstream infections due to MRSAIND.HLT.amr.mrsa_bloodstream | HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_MRSA SDG 3.d.2 |
| Bloodstream infections due to E. coli resistant to third-generation cephalosporinsIND.HLT.amr.ecoli_3gc_bloodstream | HLT | Antimicrobial resistance | hazard | % | COUNTRY | WHO_GHO AMR_INFECT_ECOLI SDG 3.d.2 |
| Stunting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.stunting | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.STA.STNT.ME.ZS SDG 2.2.1 WHO_GHO NUTSTUNTINGPREV FAO_FAOSTAT 21025 |
| Wasting among children under fiveIND.HLT.nutrition.wasting | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | WB_WDI SH.STA.WAST.ZS SDG 2.2.2 WHO_GHO NUTRITION_WH_2 FAO_FAOSTAT 21026 |
| Anaemia among women of reproductive ageIND.HLT.nutrition.anaemia_women | HLT | Nutrition | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SH.ANM.ALLW.ZS WHO_GHO NUTRITION_ANAEMIA_REPRODUCTIVEAGE_PREV SDG 2.2.3 FAO_FAOSTAT 21043 |
| Youth not in employment, education or trainingIND.SOC.protection.youth_neet | SOC | Social protection | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SL.UEM.NEET.ZS SDG 8.6.1 ILO SDG_0861_SEX_RT |
| Population aged 65 and over, share of totalIND.DEM.structure.share_65plus | DEM | Age structure | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS |
| Refugees by country of originIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | UNHCR REF WB_WDI SM.POP.REFG.OR |
| Refugees by country of origin, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.refugees_origin.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | SDG 10.7.4 |
| Internally displaced people, conflict and violence (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_conflict | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_total_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.TOCV UNHCR IDP |
| Internally displaced people, disasters (stock)IND.DEM.displacement.idp_disaster | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_total_displacement |
| Internally displaced people, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.idp_total.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | |
| New internal displacements, conflict and violenceIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_conflict | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC conflict_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWCV |
| New internal displacements, disastersIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement_disaster | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | IDMC disaster_new_displacement WB_WDI VC.IDP.NWDS |
| New internal displacements, per 100,000 populationIND.DEM.displacement.new_displacement.p100k | DEM | Forced displacement | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY | |
| Reported fatalities from organised political violenceIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED fatalities |
| Conflict fatalities per 100,000 populationIND.CON.violence.conflict_fatalities.p100k | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2 | SDG 16.1.2 |
| Battle-related deaths (UCDP)IND.CON.violence.battle_related_deaths | CON | Organised violence | hazard | {persons} | COUNTRY | WB_WDI VC.BTL.DETH |
| Political violence eventsIND.CON.violence.political_violence_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Political violence |
| Armed conflict eventsIND.CON.violence.armed_conflict_events | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED Battles ACLED Explosions/Remote violence |
| Geographic diffusion of conflictIND.CON.violence.conflict_diffusion | CON | Organised violence | exposure | % | COUNTRY | ACLED Diffusion |
| Fragmentation of armed actorsIND.CON.violence.armed_group_fragmentation | CON | Organised violence | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY | ACLED Fragmentation |
| Intentional homicide rateIND.CON.violence.homicide_rate | CON | Organised violence | hazard | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | WB_WDI VC.IHR.PSRC.P5 SDG 16.1.1 |
| Military expenditure, share of GDPIND.CON.violence.military_expenditure.gdp | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS |
| Armed forces personnel, share of labour forceIND.CON.violence.armed_forces_share | CON | Organised violence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI MS.MIL.TOTL.TF.ZS |
| Events targeting civiliansIND.CON.civilian.civilian_targeting_events | CON | Civilian harm | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, GRID | ACLED civilian_targeting ACLED Violence against civilians |
| Civilian fatalities from targeted violence, per 100,000 populationIND.CON.civilian.civilian_fatalities.p100k | CON | Civilian harm | impact | /10*5 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | ACLED Danger |
| Attacks on health careIND.CON.civilian.attacks_on_health_care | CON | Civilian harm | impact | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of warIND.CON.civilian.explosive_ordnance_casualties | CON | Civilian harm | impact | {persons} | COUNTRY | |
| Riots and violent demonstrationsIND.CON.peace.riot_events | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ACLED Riots |
| Global Peace Index overall score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_score | CON | Peacefulness | vulnerability | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Overall Score |
| Global Peace Index ongoing conflict domain score (IEP)IND.CON.peace.gpi_ongoing_conflict | CON | Peacefulness | hazard | {score} | COUNTRY | GPI Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict |
| OECD States of Fragility classificationIND.CON.fragility.oecd_fragility_class | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {class} | COUNTRY | OECD_FRAGILITY Fragile contexts |
| World Bank fragile and conflict-affected situation statusIND.CON.fragility.wb_fcs_status | CON | Fragility | vulnerability | {bool} | COUNTRY | |
| Political stability and absence of violence (WGI)IND.GOV.quality.political_stability | GOV | Governance quality | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.SC WB_WGI GOV_WGI_PV.EST |
| Population relying primarily on clean cooking fuels and technologiesIND.ENE.access.clean_cooking | ENE | Access | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SDG 7.1.2 WB_WDI EG.CFT.ACCS.ZS |
| Critical-mineral import supplier concentrationIND.ENE.minerals.critical_mineral_import_concentration | ENE | Critical minerals | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Road and rail network in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.transport.network_exposed.share | INF | Transport | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Critical facilities with 72-hour back-up powerIND.INF.utilities.critical_facility_backup_power | INF | Utilities | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37123 ISO 37123:2019 |
| Water supply assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.water_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Power generation and grid assets in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.power_assets_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Lifeline facilities in high-hazard zones, shareIND.INF.utilities.lifeline_facilities_exposed.share | INF | Utilities | exposure | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, ADM2, CITY, GRID | |
| Critical infrastructure units damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_damage | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-1 SDG 11.5.2 |
| Health facilities damaged or destroyed by disastersIND.INF.disruption.health_facilities_damaged | INF | Service disruption | impact | 1 | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI D-2 |
| Direct economic loss to critical infrastructure, share of GDPIND.INF.disruption.critical_infrastructure_loss.gdp | INF | Service disruption | impact | % | COUNTRY, ADM1 | SENDAI C-5 |
| Gross domestic expenditure on R&D, share of GDPIND.TEC.capability.rd_expenditure.gdp | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.1 WB_WDI GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS |
| Researchers per million inhabitantsIND.TEC.capability.researchers_per_million | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | /10*6 | COUNTRY | SDG 9.5.2 WB_WDI SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6 |
| High-technology exports, share of manufactured exportsIND.TEC.capability.high_tech_exports | TEC | Technology capability | adaptive capacity | % | COUNTRY | WB_WDI TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS SDG 9.b.1 |
| Semiconductor import supplier concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.semiconductor_import_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| Cloud infrastructure provider concentrationIND.TEC.concentration.cloud_provider_concentration | TEC | Concentration and dependence | vulnerability | 1 | COUNTRY | |
| AI compute capacity under foreign or single-provider controlIND.TEC.ai.ai_compute_foreign_control | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Foundation-model provider concentrationIND.TEC.ai.foundation_model_concentration | TEC | Artificial intelligence | vulnerability | % | COUNTRY | |
| Biosafety and biosecurity oversight of high-containment laboratoriesIND.TEC.bio.biosecurity_lab_oversight | TEC | Biotechnology | coping capacity | {score} | COUNTRY | |
| Population within 15 minutes of emergency servicesIND.CRS.response.emergency_service_access | CRS | Response capacity | coping capacity | % | COUNTRY, ADM1, CITY | ISO_37120 ISO 37120:2018 |
05Hazards
Hazard families this series reads
families, each crosswalked to the UNDRR–ISC Hazard Information Profiles (2025) where a profile exists.
FIG 4 · Hazard families this series reads
| Family | Domain | Hazards | Count |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar-terrestrial storms | Space and near-Earth | Geomagnetic storm, Solar flare radio blackout, Solar radiation storm, Ionospheric disturbance, Geomagnetically induced current, Satellite space-environment anomaly, Thermospheric drag surge, Radiation-belt electron enhancement … | 9 |
| Impacts and orbital hazards | Space and near-Earth | Near-Earth object approach, Meteorite impact, Airburst, Space debris, Orbital collision cascade, Uncontrolled re-entry, Spaceflight accident, Meteoroid stream encounter | 8 |
| Fault shaking and rupture | Solid Earth | Earthquake, Induced earthquake, Aftershock sequence, Fault surface rupture, Soil liquefaction, Ground fissure, Earthquake swarm | 7 |
| Eruption products and unrest | Solid Earth | Volcanic unrest, Lava flow, Volcanic ash fall, Volcanic ash cloud, Volcanic ballistic projectiles, Pyroclastic flow, Lahar, Volcanic gas and aerosol emission … | 12 |
| Slope failure and mass movement | Solid Earth | Rockfall, Topple, Slope slide, Lateral spread, Debris flow, Earthflow and mudflow, Rock avalanche, Submarine landslide … | 9 |
| Ground deformation and subsidence | Solid Earth | Land subsidence, Crustal uplift, Sinkhole, Shrink-swell soil movement, Soft-soil settlement, Ground gas seepage, Mining-induced subsidence | 7 |
| Erosion and sediment movement | Solid Earth | Soil erosion, River bank erosion, Coastal erosion, Dune encroachment, Reservoir and channel siltation, River avulsion, Delta sediment starvation | 7 |
| Seabed and deep-sea hazards | Solid Earth | Turbidity current, Submarine volcanic eruption, Seabed gas escape, Pumice raft, Deep-sea mining disturbance | 5 |
| Airborne and respiratory infection | Health and biosecurity | Respiratory pandemic, Seasonal influenza epidemic, Zoonotic influenza spillover, Coronavirus outbreak, Tuberculosis surge, Bacterial meningitis outbreak | 6 |
| Vaccine-preventable outbreaks | Health and biosecurity | Measles outbreak, Polio outbreak, Diphtheria and whooping cough outbreak, Other vaccine-preventable outbreak | 4 |
| Faecal-oral and foodborne infection | Health and biosecurity | Cholera outbreak, Typhoid and paratyphoid fever, Shigellosis and dysentery outbreak, Viral diarrhoea outbreak, Faecal-oral hepatitis outbreak, Foodborne illness outbreak, Waterborne disease outbreak | 7 |
| Vector-borne infection | Health and biosecurity | Dengue epidemic, Chikungunya and Zika outbreak, Yellow fever outbreak, West Nile and Culex-borne virus outbreak, Malaria resurgence, Plague outbreak, Trypanosomiasis outbreak, Tick-borne disease surge … | 10 |
| Haemorrhagic fever | Health and biosecurity | Ebola and Marburg outbreak, Lassa fever outbreak, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever outbreak | 3 |
| Blood-borne and sexually transmitted infection | Health and biosecurity | HIV epidemic, Chronic viral hepatitis B and C burden, Sexually transmitted infection resurgence | 3 |
| Animal-to-human spillover | Health and biosecurity | Zoonotic spillover event, Anthrax outbreak, Brucellosis outbreak, Rabies outbreak, Leptospirosis outbreak, Mpox outbreak, Rift Valley fever outbreak, Nipah and henipavirus outbreak | 8 |
| Rare and persistent human infections | Health and biosecurity | Prion disease cluster, Smallpox reintroduction | 2 |
| Livestock and aquaculture epizootics | Health and biosecurity | Swine fever epizootic, Foot-and-mouth epizootic, Ruminant respiratory epizootic, Vector-borne livestock disease, Poultry epizootic, Screwworm infestation, Aquaculture disease outbreak, Livestock disease outbreak | 8 |
| Plant disease and pests | Health and biosecurity | Bacterial and fungal crop disease, Plant virus epidemic, Crop insect pest outbreak, Locust swarm, Invasive species spread | 5 |
| Systemic biological risks | Health and biosecurity | Antimicrobial resistance, Deliberate or accidental biological-agent release | 2 |
| Environmental and product harm to people | Health and biosecurity | Snakebite envenoming, Substandard and falsified medicines, Adulterated alcohol poisoning, Overdose epidemic | 4 |
| Climate-sensitive illness | Health and biosecurity | Heat-related illness surge, Cold-related illness surge, Disease vector range expansion, Aeroallergen season intensification, Warm-water bacterial infection | 5 |
| Drug and insecticide resistance by pathogen class | Health and biosecurity | Multidrug-resistant bacterial infection spread, Antiviral drug resistance, Antimalarial and antiparasitic drug resistance, Antifungal drug resistance, Insecticide resistance in disease vectors, Antimicrobial development and supply failure | 6 |
| Emerging and unknown infection threats | Health and biosecurity | Unknown future pathogen emergence, Emerging fungal pathogen, Endemic fungal disease range expansion, Healthcare-associated infection outbreak, Undiagnosed illness cluster | 5 |
| Maternal, newborn and child health emergencies | Health and biosecurity | Maternal mortality rise, Newborn mortality surge, Preterm and low birthweight birth rise, Childhood immunisation coverage collapse, Infant feeding disruption, Reproductive health service disruption | 6 |
| Mental health crises | Health and biosecurity | Population mental distress surge, Post-disaster traumatic stress, Suicide rate rise, Youth mental health crisis, Climate-related psychological distress, Social isolation and loneliness epidemic, Mass psychogenic illness outbreak, Gambling harm surge | 8 |
| Noncommunicable disease surges | Health and biosecurity | Cardiovascular disease surge, Diabetes epidemic, Obesity epidemic, Cancer burden rise, Chronic respiratory disease burden, Chronic kidney disease surge, Dementia burden growth, Post-infection chronic illness … | 11 |
| Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency | Health and biosecurity | Acute malnutrition surge, Chronic undernutrition and stunting, Micronutrient deficiency, Nutritional deficiency disease outbreak, Unhealthy diet transition, Crop nutrient decline | 6 |
| Occupational disease and injury | Health and biosecurity | Occupational lung disease, Occupational heat strain, Occupational cancer, Occupational chemical poisoning, Workplace injury burden, Work-related psychosocial harm | 6 |
| Health system capacity failure | Health and biosecurity | Health workforce shortage, Health worker industrial action, Health financing collapse, Catastrophic out-of-pocket health spending, Vaccine confidence collapse, Essential health service disruption, Disease surveillance failure, Health facility loss of function … | 9 |
| AI system failure and misalignment | Frontier and exponential technology | AI malfunction in a critical service, Out-of-distribution model failure, Correlated failure of shared AI models, Reliance on fabricated AI output, Specification gaming and reward hacking, Deceptive or strategically misaligned AI, Loss of human control over advanced AI, AI self-replication and exfiltration … | 11 |
| AI security and model supply chain | Frontier and exponential technology | Theft of frontier model weights, Backdoored AI model, AI model supply-chain compromise, Prompt injection against AI agents, AI-enabled cyber offence, Attack on AI compute infrastructure, Adversarial manipulation of machine learning | 7 |
| AI misuse and capability uplift | Frontier and exponential technology | AI uplift for biological weapons, AI uplift for chemical weapons, Synthetic media at scale, Non-consensual synthetic intimate imagery, AI-driven mass persuasion, AI-enabled mass surveillance and repression, AI-enabled seizure or entrenchment of power, Malicious use of AI | 8 |
| Agentic AI acting at scale | Frontier and exponential technology | Runaway autonomous agent action, Multi-agent interaction cascade, Algorithmic market flash crash, Human deskilling and over-reliance on AI, Gradual human disempowerment by AI, Autonomous agent overreach | 6 |
| Algorithmic decision and structural harm | Frontier and exponential technology | Harmful automated decision-making, Clinical AI error, Rapid AI-driven labour displacement, Concentration of frontier AI capability, Competitive AI race and safety erosion, Degradation of the shared knowledge base, Recommender-system amplification harm, Harm from AI companions and chatbots … | 12 |
| Robotics, autonomy and autonomous weapons | Frontier and exponential technology | Lethal autonomous weapon use, Drone swarm attack, Weaponised small drone attack, Drone intrusion into protected airspace, AI-accelerated military escalation, AI in nuclear command, control and warning, Industrial and service robot injury, Autonomous vehicle system failure … | 10 |
| Biotechnology and synthetic biology | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered pandemic pathogen, Dual-use research of concern, Benchtop DNA synthesis misuse, Biological design tool misuse, Automated biofoundry accident, Gene drive escape, Engineered organism escape into the environment, Mirror-image organism creation or release … | 10 |
| Nanotechnology and advanced materials | Frontier and exponential technology | Engineered nanomaterial exposure, High-aspect-ratio nanofibre inhalation, Nanomaterial accumulation in the environment, Uncontrolled self-replicating nanomachines, Molecular manufacturing arms race | 5 |
| Neurotechnology, human enhancement and extended reality | Frontier and exponential technology | Brain-computer interface failure, Neural device compromise, Neural data exploitation, Cognitive enhancement harm and coercion, Heritable human genome editing harm, Extended-reality physical and psychological harm, Manipulation of augmented perception | 7 |
| Quantum technology and cryptographic transition | Frontier and exponential technology | Cryptographically relevant quantum computer, Harvest-now, decrypt-later collection, Post-quantum migration failure, Quantum sensing erosion of strategic concealment | 4 |
| Climate intervention technologies | Frontier and exponential technology | Solar geoengineering termination shock, Stratospheric aerosol injection side effects, Marine cloud brightening side effects, Unilateral or rogue geoengineering deployment, Ocean fertilisation side effects, Ocean alkalinity enhancement side effects, Large-scale carbon removal land and water competition, Geological carbon storage leakage … | 11 |
| Space technology and orbital infrastructure | Frontier and exponential technology | Destructive anti-satellite strike, Non-kinetic counterspace attack, Mega-constellation orbital congestion, Constellation-wide service failure, Upper-atmosphere pollution from launches and re-entries, Satellite interference with sky observation, Back-contamination from extraterrestrial samples | 7 |
| Digital infrastructure concentration and monoculture | Frontier and exponential technology | Critical open-source dependency failure, Advanced semiconductor fabrication concentration, Digital identity and trust service failure | 3 |
| Advanced and distributed manufacturing | Frontier and exponential technology | 3D-printed and untraceable firearms, Distributed production of weapon components, Additively manufactured critical part failure | 3 |
| Energy-transition technology failures | Frontier and exponential technology | Lithium battery fire in vehicles and transport, Mass manipulation of connected energy devices, Advanced reactor material security risk, Critical mineral supply concentration | 4 |
| Distributed ledgers and digital assets | Frontier and exponential technology | Smart-contract and oracle exploit | 1 |
| Supply-chain and flow disruption | Systemic and compound events | Supply-chain disruption, Chokepoint blockage, Port or hub closure, Fuel and energy supply shock, Food supply-chain breakdown, Trade restriction or embargo, Single-source supplier failure, Cold-chain failure … | 17 |
| Cascading failure | Systemic and compound events | Interdependent infrastructure cascade, Blackout-driven service cascade, Water-energy-food cascade, Financial contagion, Health-system overload, Emergency-response overload, Digital dependency cascade, Lifeline restoration deadlock … | 10 |
| Compound and multi-hazard events | Systemic and compound events | Compound flooding, Concurrent heat and drought, Simultaneous multi-region crop failure, Cold-wave energy crunch, Heat-driven grid stress, Natech event, Successive hazards, Disaster during an epidemic … | 9 |
| Structural fragility of interconnected systems | Systemic and compound events | Critical single point of failure, Critical service provider concentration, Common-mode failure, Technology monoculture, Lean inventory fragility, Geographic clustering of critical production, Unmapped critical dependency, Tightly coupled automated systems … | 11 |
| Planetary boundary transgressions | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Climate-forcing boundary transgression, Global temperature overshoot, Global warming acceleration, Atmospheric methane surge, Extinction-rate boundary transgression, Biosphere functional integrity loss, Land-system change boundary transgression, Blue-water flow disturbance … | 14 |
| Ice tipping elements | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Greenland ice sheet tipping, West Antarctic ice sheet collapse, East Antarctic subglacial basin retreat, Arctic winter sea-ice collapse, Antarctic sea-ice regime shift, Regional glacier extinction | 6 |
| Ocean circulation and marine tipping | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Atlantic overturning weakening, Atlantic overturning collapse, Subpolar gyre convection collapse, Antarctic overturning slowdown, Arctic Ocean atlantification, Warm-water coral reef die-off, Marine methane hydrate destabilisation | 7 |
| Biome tipping elements | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Amazon rainforest dieback, Boreal forest southern dieback, Boreal forest northern advance, Tropical forest carbon-sink reversal, Sahel vegetation regime shift | 5 |
| Carbon-cycle feedbacks | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Permafrost carbon release, Abrupt permafrost thaw emission, Subsea permafrost greenhouse gas release, Wetland methane feedback, Land carbon sink weakening, Ocean carbon sink weakening, Soil carbon respiration feedback | 7 |
| Atmospheric circulation and monsoon tipping | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | South Asian monsoon regime shift, West African monsoon regime shift, South American monsoon weakening, East Asian monsoon regime shift, Tropical belt widening, Tropical Pacific regime change, Jet-stream regime change, Marine stratocumulus deck breakup … | 9 |
| Deep-time and cosmic catastrophes | Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping | Supereruption, Large-magnitude explosive eruption, Flood-basalt eruption episode, Impact winter, Comet shower, Solar superflare, Gamma-ray burst, Nearby supernova … | 10 |
06Tail
The severe end of the distribution
FIG 5 · Explorer: exceedance, return-period loss and the protection gap
Frequency and severity
One risk-transfer layer
–
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07Methods
Method libraries
Each method has a reference implementation or declares the specialist model, data or adapter it still needs; none is promoted beyond its evidence.
23 methods
Catastrophe risk
Stochastic Event Catalogue · Historical Event Catalogue · Event Footprint · Secondary Uncertainty · Loss Amplification · Financial Terms · Event Loss Table …
21 methods
Networks, dependency and systemic risk
Dependency Graph · Centrality · Critical Node · Cascading Failure · Contagion · Percolation · Interdependency …
56 methods
Cyber, AI and frontier technology
Cyber Attack Surface · Exploitability · Threat Likelihood · Cyber Asset Criticality · Intrusion Propagation · Ransomware Risk · Identity Compromise …
08Users
Who uses it
Governments and national risk agencies
Prioritise prevention and preparedness; Plan with subnational layers; Track Sendai targets; Co-develop a national index
Insurers, reinsurers and risk pools
Read hazard, exposure and protection-gap context; Run scenario and tail analytics; Study parametric index design questions
Universities and research
Replicate every value; Study methods; Contribute data and review
UN system and humanitarian organisations
Compare needs across contexts with intervals; Watch weekly signals for review; Read outlooks for anticipatory planning
09Reports
Nexus Reports
- Edition code
SR-14- Edition status
- planned
- Subject
- Set by Nexus Reports at commissioning
10Cite
Cite and reuse
GCRI Canada (2026). The Global Risks Index (NXS-GRX): Global catastrophic and tail risk series (GRX-SER-SR-14), Baseline Edition 2026. Preparatory working draft. https://risksindex.com/series/sr-14/ UNI NXS-GRX-AR-000087.
- Series key
grix:SER.SR-14:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A- Domain keys
nis:IDX.SPC.weather.space_weather_exposure:{ISO3}:{YEAR}:A
Every country reads this series
Each country profile carries the domain indices this series is built from.
Status
The methodology, structure and definitions of The Global Risks Index are a preparatory working draft (2026), circulated for review and comment and not for implementation. No value appears until an edition is released from a governed evidence cut; values then carry intervals, classes, sources and their correction pathway. Simulators run the published methods on numbers you choose and never show a NXS-GRX value.
What NXS-GRX is not
NXS-GRX is research and risk-analytics information. It is not a credit or ESG rating and uses no rating scale, not a benchmark for financial instruments, not official statistics, not an emergency warning or official classification, and not advice. It must not be used to evaluate natural persons. Risk classes are bands on a published scale, never rankings of countries or people.
Institutions and sources
The Nexus Consortium is stewarded by three independent not-for-profit institutions: GCRI Canada as Lead Institution, Consortium Secretariat and lead contracting organization, The Global Risks Forum (GRF) and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA). Technology, infrastructure and service providers work with the Consortium at arm's length under written agreements, like every other external party in the public-private-planet model, and hold no role in its stewardship.
Every value carries the attribution of its sources, which keep their own licences. External names are cited for interoperability only. Nexus-authored text is intended for CC BY 4.0 on release.
Avis en français
La méthodologie et les définitions du NXS-GRX sont un projet de travail préparatoire (2026). Le NXS-GRX est une information de recherche et d'analyse des risques : ni notation, ni indice de référence financier, ni statistique officielle, ni alerte, ni conseil. Les classes de risque sont des bandes sur une échelle publiée, non des classements.